Posted on 05/16/2015 5:46:41 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Some really weird things are happening in the financial world right now. If you go back to 2008, there was lots of turmoil bubbling just underneath the surface during the months leading up to the great stock market crash in the second half of that year. When Lehman Brothers finally did collapse, it was a total shock to most of the planet, but we later learned that their problems had been growing for a long time. I believe that we are in a similar period right now, and the second half of this year promises to be quite chaotic. Apparently, those that run some of the largest exchange-traded funds in the entire world agree with me, because as you will see below they are quietly preparing for a “liquidity crisis” and a “market meltdown”. About a month ago, I warned of an emerging “liquidity squeeze“, and now analysts all over the financial industry are talking about it. Could it be possible that the next great financial crisis is right around the corner?
According to Reuters, the companies that run some of the largest exchange-traded funds in existence are deeply concerned about what a lack of liquidity would mean for them during the next financial crash. So right now they are quietly “bolstering bank credit lines” so that they will be better positioned for “a market meltdown”…
The biggest providers of exchange-traded funds, which have been funneling billions of investor dollars into some little-traded corners of the bond market, are bolstering bank credit lines for cash to tap in the event of a market meltdown.
Vanguard Group, Guggenheim Investments and First Trust are among U.S. fund companies that have lined up new bank guarantees or expanded ones they already had, recent company filings show.
The measures come as the Federal Reserve and other U.S. regulators express concern about the ability of fund managers to withstand a wave of investor redemptions in the event of another financial crisis. They have pointed particularly to fixed-income ETFs, which tend to track less liquid markets such as high yield corporate bonds or bank loans.
So why are Vanguard Group, Guggenheim Investments and First Trust all making these kinds of preparations right now?
Do they know something that the rest of us do not?
Over recent months, I have been writing about how so many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just prior to previous financial crashes seem to be repeating once again in 2015.
One of the things that we would expect to see happen just before a major event would be for the “smart money” to rush out of long-term bonds and into short-term bonds and other more liquid assets. This is something that had not been happening, but during the past couple of weeks there has been a major change. All of a sudden, long-term yields have been spiking dramatically. The following comes from Martin Armstrong…
The amount of cash rushing around on the short-end is stunning. Yields are collapsing into negative territory and this is the same flight to quality we began to see at the peak in the crisis back in 2009. The big money is selling the 10 year or greater paper and everyone is rushing into the short-term. There is not enough paper around to satisfy the demands. Capital is unwilling to hold long-term even the 10 year maturities of governments including Germany. This is illustrating the crisis that is unfolding and there is a collapse in liquidity.
There is that word “liquidity” once again. It is funny how that keeps popping up.
Here is a chart that shows what has been happening to the yield on 30 year U.S. Treasuries in 2015. As you can see, there has been a big move recently…
And what this chart doesn’t show is that the yield on 30 year Treasuries shot up to about 3.08% on Wednesday.
Of course it isn’t just yields in the U.S. that are skyrocketing. This is happening all over the globe, and many analysts are now openly wondering if the 76 trillion dollar global bond bubble is finally imploding. For instance, just consider what Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid recently told the Telegraph…
Financial regulations introduced since the crisis have required banks to hold more bonds, as quantitative easing schemes have meant central banks hold many on their own balance sheets, reducing the number available to trade on the open market.
Simultaneously, central banks have attempted to boost so-called “high money liquidity” with quantitative easing schemes and their close to zero interest rates. “What has become increasingly clear over the last couple of years is that the combination of high money liquidity and low trading liquidity creates air pockets,” said Mr Reid.
He continued: “It’s a worry that these events are occurring in relatively upbeat markets. I can’t helping thinking that when the next downturn hits the lack of liquidity in various markets is going to be chaotic. These increasingly regular liquidity issues we’re seeing might be a mild dress rehearsal.”
Those are sobering words.
And without a doubt, we are in the midst of a massive stock market bubble as well. The chaos that is coming is not just going to affect bonds. In fact, I believe that the greatest stock market crash in U.S. history is coming.
So when will it happen?
Well, Phoenix Capital Research seems to think that we have reached an extremely important turning point…
This is something of a last hurrah for stocks. We are now officially in May. And historically the period from May to November has been one of the worst periods for stocks from a seasonal perspective.
Moreover, the fundamentals are worsening dramatically for the markets. By the look of things, 2014 represented the first year in which corporate sales FELL since 2009. Sales track actual economic activity much more closely than earnings: either the money comes in or it isn’t. The fact that sales are falling indicates the economy is rolling over and the “recovery” has ended.
Having cut costs to the bone and issued debt to buyback shares, we are likely at peak earnings as well. Thus far 90% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings. Year over year earnings are down 11.9%.
So sales are falling and earnings are falling… at a time when stocks are so overvalued that even the Fed admits it. This has all the makings of a serious market collapse. And smart investors are preparing now BEFORE it hits.
Personally, I have a really bad feeling about the second half of 2015. Everything seems to be gearing up for a repeat of 2008 (or even worse). Let’s hope that does not happen, but let’s not be willingly blind to the great storm on the horizon either.
And once the next great crisis does hit us, governments around the world will have a lot less “ammunition” to fight it than the last time around. For example, the U.S. national debt has approximately doubled since the beginning of the last recession, and the Federal Reserve has already pushed interest rates down as far as they can. Similar things could also be said about other governments all over the planet. This is something that HSBC chief economist Stephen King recently pointed out in a 17 page report entitled “The world economy’s titanic problem”. The following is a brief excerpt from that report…
“Whereas previous recoveries have enabled monetary and fiscal policymakers to replenish their ammunition, this recovery — both in the US and elsewhere — has been distinguished by a persistent munitions shortage. This is a major problem. In all recessions since the 1970s, the US Fed funds rate has fallen by a minimum of 5 percentage points. That kind of traditional stimulus is now completely ruled out.”
For a long time, I have had a practice of ending my articles by urging people to get prepared. But now time for preparing is rapidly running out. My new book entitled “Get Prepared Now” was just released, but honestly my co-author and I should have had it out last year. In the very small amount of time that we have left before the financial markets crash, the amount of “prepping” that people are going to be able to do will be fairly limited.
I am not just pointing to a single event. Once the financial markets crash this time, I believe that there is not going to be any sort of a “recovery” like we experienced after 2008. I believe that the long-term economic collapse that we have been experiencing will accelerate very greatly, and it will usher in a horrible period of time for the United States unlike anything that we have ever seen before.
So what do you think?
Could I be wrong?
Doesn’t it depend on the ETF? Regular stock ETFs hold the shares and can just sell them for whatever they bring in a down market and give the money to the unfortunate customer. For other kinds of ETFs (e.g. leveraged) it would be much more of a problem.
ping
My new book entitled “Get Prepared Now” was just released
But I do doubt that the upside of over half of the globe entering the 21st century has been priced in and the stock market is a forward pricing entity.
In fact, I believe that the greatest stock market crash in U.S. history is coming.
____________________________
I also believe that we are on the verge of a major world economic system collapse.
I posted the following on another thread yesterday:
Most people are not seeing REALITY.
Here’s what Bill Holter of Miles Franklin has to say:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60sA0iDQtLI
“That didn’t take long did it? I of course am speaking of the second overnight and global meltdown of the credit markets …in the last four business days! Before getting into this topic which I believe will soon be seen in retrospect and by historians far into the future as “THE” trigger event.” (sic)
(snip...)
“...this you must understand, “power” is currently debt. The control of debt is also the power of prices. Once debt breaks loose and trades out of the control of central banks, these central banks will also lose the control to price everything else. We have come very close twice in the last four trading days of the credit market control being broken. Will loss of control be on the next convulsion? Or the next? I nor anyone else knows this answer, I do know the greatest margin call in all of history will be issued … and it cannot be met!” http://blog.milesfranklin.com/a-foundation-of-bad-credit-is-no-foundation-at-all
Pray ... and prepare!
I am no financial expert or economist. My reading of history tells me that every time "money" is separated from intrinsic value, as with all the world's fiat currency, it always collapses. My reading of history also tells me that those who profit from this engineer use of the worthless fiat currency precisely to transform it into real wealth prior to the collapse. The collapse is normally followed up with war to both divert the wrath of those suffering and to kill them off.
We have been on this stairway to hell ever since Roosevelt stole our gold and Nixon took us off the gold standard. It's not a matter of if. It is a matter of when. And that could very well be now!
Those are sobering words.
And without a doubt, we are in the midst of a massive stock market bubble as well. The chaos that is coming is not just going to affect bonds. In fact, I believe that the greatest stock market crash in U.S. history is coming.
So when will it happen?
...
History suggests that it will happen when the Fed raises short term interest rates to the point that the yield curve is inverted.
My reading of history tells me that every time “money” is separated from intrinsic value, as with all the world’s fiat currency, it always collapses.
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Product of good knowledge of history & basic common sense.
I am also aware of what happens when huge numbers of people remove God and His ways from the center of their lives/culture.
Prepper ping.
Indeed!
So, in addition to prayer, how to prepare?
Most all Naval Officers I know, including my husband, are also GOOD men! :-)
You and your family should discuss this and have a PLAN. You can also get many ideas online. Where would you all be to be in a relatively safe place? How will you get there? Would you remain where you are? How will you communicate with one another? Prepare as you would for any lengthy disaster, asking God to guide and protect you and/or, if in a neighborhood, get to know everyone and work together to prepare (protection, sharing of resources/talents/skills, etc.).
Even though the thought of all this still seems just *OUT THERE* ...it’s looking MUCH more probable than ever before. You may find some really practical ideas here too: https://thepeppyprepper.wordpress.com
Good move! Thanks. Kartographer is the best FResource for those who want to know how to prepare.
:-)
Bump for reference.
Thank you...I am afraid that ‘prepping’ is sort of like tempting fate to me...if you do it, it will come...
I don’t have the close family ties anywhere nearby or the close connections to like-minded neighbors to work with. I will check it out, though.
Everything starts with good moral character. It is humbling that we measure up.
Hayek is looking smarter everyday.
L
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