Posted on 08/24/2014 3:59:25 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Following two cycles where it was GOP missteps and subpar candidates who cost them winnable races, the tables have turned and it’s now Democrats who are scrambling to right Rep. Bruce Braley’s flagging campaign before it’s too late.
Recent polls find a coin-flip race between Braley and Iowa state Sen. Joni Ernst(R), and but the national party increasingly worries it could be the tipping point for Senate control.
“If the Democrats lose Iowa, of course it becomes much harder to keep the majority,” said one national Democratic strategist. “The race could very much go either way. We feel like the worst is behind us and it's moving back towards Bruce Braley. But we know we don't have this wrapped up.”
Braley’s biggest gaffe took place months ago, when video surfaced of the former trial lawyer criticizing Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) as a “a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school.”
But Braley’s problems haven’t stopped there. A neighbor has claimed he threatened to sue because her chickens kept wandering in his yard, and Republicans have been hammering him for missing Veterans Affairs Committee hearings. In-state observers say he’s stiff and awkward at times on the campaign trail, while Ernst is better at retail politicking.
David Yepsen, a thirty-year veteran of the Des Moines Register who now directs the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, said Braley’s “farmer” gaffe “really redefined the race” and was “one of the biggest political stumbles I've ever seen.”
“In one swoop, he made a mistake that changes the direction of the race,” said Yepsen. “This was going to be a race that Democrats initially thought would be pretty easy to hold onto and it's turned into a far different game.”
Holding the seat of retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) is critical, since Democrats can only afford to lose five seats if they hope to retain control of the upper chamber. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are all likely to flip to the GOP, getting the GOP halfway to a majority. Red-state Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) and Mark Begich (D-Alaska) have been top targets for more than a year, but are running strong races.
But now Braley’s missteps have vaulted him higher on the vulnerable list, frustrating D.C. Democrats who thought he’d win comfortably.
Braley’s team has come out hard on veterans issues in recent weeks, running two ads touting his work helping veterans get military pay and pushing to end sexual assault in the military. The ads seem aimed at shoring up his standing with veterans and help bolster his image with voters against Ernst, who serves in the Iowa National Guard.
While he looks to boost his own image, Democrats have been hard at work undercutting Ernst’s in the swing state.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Senate Majority PAC, and the liberal environmental group NextGen Climate have all been on the air in recent weeks seeking to paint Ernst as a conservative hard-liner beholden to special-interest groups. Iowa has been one of the only states where Democrats have been spending more on television in recent weeks, a sign of how worried they are about the race.
The DSCC’s ad ties her to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who campaigned for Ernst in the primary. Others hit her for waffling on the renewable fuel standard, a key issue for some Iowa farmers, and her opposition to a federal minimum wage.
Braley’s campaign argues that his mistakes are well-known to voters at this point, but that they’re just getting to know his opponent.
"In Iowa, what's out of touch is Joni Ernst's Tea Party views on the minimum wage, Social Security, Medicare, impeachment and the government shutdown. That's what is going to matter to Iowans come November,” Braley spokesman Sam Lau said.
Braley’s allies admit he’s made unforced errors, but think the race is beginning to turn in his direction as voters learn more about Ernst.
“People simply didn't know who she was besides being a woman and a fresh face with catchy TV ads who grew up on a farm, and not looking at her beliefs, her views, her record, which are pretty extreme,” former Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D) told The Hill. “I'm not going to deny there have been some rough spots in this campaign… but I really believe he'll be okay, I really do.”
Ernst’s campaign has retaliated, attacking Braley as an “elitist” and saying the Democratic attacks were coming from a place of fear.
“Bruce Braley has been losing ground every week because each day Iowans learn something new about his elitist Washington values,” said Ernst spokeswoman Gretchen Hamel. “Bruce Braley and his liberal allies arrogantly thought this race would be a coronation. Now they are desperate and filling the airways with false attacks and smears against Joni Ernst. They aren’t even trying to get people to vote for Braley anymore. Their goal is to smear Joni so much that Iowans will vote against her. It’s sad, and it won’t work, but that’s their strategy.”
National Democrats argue the attacks against Ernst are working and the race has stabilized, for now.
But many admit they were hoping they would never have to worry about Iowa in the first place, and know if the Senate flips, it may be due to Braley’s subpar performance.
“Losing this would make the path much more difficult. I think he's in a good place, but he needs to stop tripping over himself,” said another national Democratic strategist.
Looks like this race is moving into second tier range.
<><> Gaff-prone Senate candidate Rep. Bruce Braley is making Dummycrats antsy---they can only afford to lose five seats if they hope to retain control of the upper chamber. Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota are all likely to flip to the GOP, getting the GOP halfway to a majority.
<><> Red-state Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.), Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) and Mark Begich (D-Alaska) have been top Repub targets for more than a year, but are running strong races.
==================================================
TALKING POINTS--Campaign Contributions Ensnare 2014 DEMOCRATS in IRS’s Missing Emails Scandal
Colorado Observer. ^ | June 19, 2014 | Audrey Hudson / FR Posted 6/21 by george76
...... missing among the IRS’s internal emails are communications with Sens. Mark Udall, Mark Begich, Mary Landrieu, Al Franken, and a dozen other Democrats who received campaign contributions from the federal agency’s union.
Democratic senators who took campaign donations from the IRS union include Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana who received $25,500, Al Franken of Minnesota with $5,000, and Mark Begich of Alaska.
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoloradoobserver.com ...
Breitbart.com reports that b/c of an increasingly hostile political landscape, Democrats are resorting to whining---asking voters to believe they have suddenly "seen the light" and are now conservatives.
In districts across the country, Democrats are campaigning as "true believers' in tax cuts, balanced budgets and for rolling back big government's harmful regulations.
The Dummycrats are so desperate, thry're even bleating about guns, fracking and coal....trying to appeal to the conservative heartland.
The list of Democrats carving out more conservative positions is too lengthy to mention. In fact, breitbart.com reports, it would be noteworthy to find any Democrat in a competitive election running on the platform espoused by the DNC, Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi.
Opportunistic Dem candidates are marching in lockstep--- separating themselves from Dummycrat-ism when facing actual voters.
As conservatives have always observed, Dummycrat-ism is not even a coherent party....just a collection of hyphenates.....and expedient alliances of special interest groups....all expecting payback.
This is an old Dummycrat trick---from the conniving shallow mind of Chicago-land kingpins of political crime. Obama suck-up Rahm Emanuel actually dreamed up the con.
As you may recall, the contrived Democrat wave in 2006 was fueled, in large part, by Dummycrat's beating the drum about public weariness with the Iraq War...... and Dummycrats piling on GWB.
Naturally, the complicit drive-by media failed to report that this was a con game devised by the aggressive then-Cong Rahm Emanuel to recruit moderate and conservative Democrats to run for office.
This strategy worked so well that before the GOP landslide in 2010, 54 members of the House Democrat caucus were conservative "blue dog democrats." With only 14 "blue dogs" now serving in Congress, this mythical creature has all but disappeared from the political landscape.
With contemporary support for golf-addicted Obama, and his policies, nearing record lows, Democrats in Congress are again trying to pull off this trick.
===========================================
WRAP-UP: Stupid Dummycrats can run wearing Reagan masks, for all that matters----the prog/nitwit in the WH keeps reminding voters about the Dummycrat-fashioned disaster that has befallen our beloved country.
It has never published a piece about a Dem is behind in a election.
This article is a classic Dem party talking points it spits out daily as facts. Clearly the Hill lefty is nervous.
It has never published a piece about a Dem is behind in a election.
This article is a classic Dem party talking points it spits out daily as facts. Clearly the Hill lefty is nervous.
They're just whipping up the lefty PACs for even more money to dump into radio/TV ads bashing Joni Ernst (some of which ads are painfully contrived agitprop, but they probably go over well with the congenitally Democrat).
The special interest 'rat ads for this race are as intense as anything I can recall in this state.
Mr. niteowl77
"If Sen. Mary Landrieu loses her re-election bid this year, she might look back at the last few weeks as the turning point in her lengthy political career.
The Louisiana Democrat, who has repeatedly found a way to win in a predominantly red state, is stuck at the lowest point of her 2014 campaign.
The chairwoman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has been on the defensive after it was revealed that she used official Senate dollars to pay for at least four flights to campaign-related events.
Even more directly, Landrieu was outraised in the last quarter by Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and now finds herself with less cash on hand than the conservative doctor.
Landrieu has dismissed the brouhaha over her charter flights as a bookkeeping issue, but political insiders in the Bayou State say the self-inflicted wound has redefined the race.
“At first, I didn’t think it would be of any consequence, but it actually blew up and got a lot more publicity than I thought it would,” said Bernie Pinsonat, a Louisiana pollster who has worked for both Republicans and Democrats. “There’s a trend here. She can apologize all she wants, but it has clearly hurt her.”
“It’s almost unbelievable what has happened,” Pinsonat added, calling it the “first opportunity for Cassidy to take command of this campaign.”
Cassidy has a one-point edge over Landrieu, according to a Real Clear Politics average of surveys, meaning the race is in a statistical tie two months before voters head to the polls. However, both Republicans and Democrats would concede that momentum, for the moment, is on Cassidy’s side.
Some conservatives have been surprised by how Cassidy has run a relatively quiet campaign, opting to sit on much of his campaign war chest even as Landrieu attempted to tie him to the far-right wing of the Republican Party. The Louisiana congressman held back even amid a challenge on the right from Air Force Col. Rob Maness, the Tea Party candidate....................."
The GOP cannot improve until it understands large-majority white states that elect Democrats to the Senate.
Those voters are the key to the future. Not Mestizos. Not African-Americans.
A functioning political system would accept the Democrats’ racialization of politics and go where the money is.
Braley is an “elitist, condescending turd,” according to one Iowa newspaper editor...
Read an article the other day that DEMOCRATIC WOMEN VOTERS are the biggest deciders to Presidential election in 2016.
Obama got more votes from women then men in both elections and the same will be true in 2016 should a woman run for President.
How can Republicans get the women voters of today who are hard core pro-abortion, feministas, save the tree frog, white priviledged mentality of today? They can’t....not to mention those folks who will stay home rather then vote for a Republican Presidential candidate. All I can say, if another Democrat and especially a female like Hillary or Warren gets to be President, you think Obama was gruesome, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
It will be war and HATE on MEN, war AND HATE ON marriage and families, war on reproduction, birth control, war on equal pay on STEROIDS.
<><> Ask Dummycrats when Obama is dropping by to campaign for them (cackle).
<><> Ask Dummycrats why they voted to subsidize O/Care by decimating Medicare Advantage for seniors.
<><> Ask Dummycrats why the White House calculatedly kept the gruesome details to itself while egging on loyal lock-stepping Democrats to vote for O/Care.
<><> Ask Dummycrat why the WH lied to Americans in a way so specific, it showed they knew exactly what to spin and how......via the infamous "If you like your health-care plan, you can keep your health-care plan, period."
<><> Ask Dummycrats why they carried on for the next three years making believe they'd actually read the ACA bill and pretending they understood its implications.
<><> Ask Dummycrats why they're so surprised by grassroots complaints about O/Care from constituents.
<><> Ask Dummycrats why they treat voters as if they just fall off a turnip truck.
That's the least of her problems---she's probably relishing the travel allegations as a diversion. Read on.
Some observers note that the Democrat-controlled Senate passed Obamacare "after a series of unsavory transactions that purchased the aye votes of several shrewdly extortionate Democrats"....with a huge pile of money still unaccounted for.
The most unsavory was Landrieu's $4.3 billion "Louisisana Purchase."
THE PAPER TRAIL IS HUGE Sen Landrieu (Scumocrat-LA) sold her aye vote in what Forbes Magazine dubbed "The 'Louisiana Purchase" that included a massive $4.3 Billion to Landrieu
FORBES REPORTED the Democrats’ nailed Landrieu’s support for Obamacare w/ a greenback bribe. Landrieu, critics believe, pledged her vote in exchange for some $200 million more additional federal funds for Louisiana. Except that, due to a drafting error, the law ended up giving Louisiana $4.3 billion: more than twenty times the assigned amount. MORE HERE http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml
===============================================
BACKSTORY In the fall of 2009, Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) was trying to get the necessary 60 Dimocrat votes to pass the Affordable Care Act. He needed every Dim on board, which gave waffling senators a great deal of leverage. In Landrieu's case, she connivingly saw that selling her aye vote could get her maybe $200 million federal dollars. Obama complied. Reid chalked up another vote for Obamacare. But not the measly $200 million but $4.3 billon was attached to the Obamacare bill earmarked for Landrieu.
=================================================
How $4.3 billion to Landrieu was calculatedly attached to the Obamacare bill, and how Obama and Reid failed to catch and fix it, is yet another indictment of the Obamacare atrocity.
The $4.3 billion handoff to Landrieu should be investigated as an indication of how EVERY Democrat came to vote for Obamacare....and how tax dollars were laundered to help elect more lock-stepping Democrats.
“Braley is an “elitist, condescending turd,” according to one Iowa newspaper editor...”
An insult to turds. My chocolate lab should be able to beat Braley this year. I will not be a happy camper if we don’t beat him. Joni Ernst should win this and should represent Iowa well.
“twas said by the editor of the Albia newspaper.
I sent Joni $25...
Dems?!? We have moved beyond worrying about democrats. We are fighting socialists for our very freedom and our nation’s right to exist.
Having been born and raised in Iowa (Gilbert... in suburban Ames), I picked up right away on the fact that there is a city named "Waterloo" in Iowa. They have a "blowtorch" 50,000 watt coservative talk station (KXEL-1540)
That had to be more than a coincidence.
For the democrats you mean?
I think Ernst will win but it's still Iowa, so you can rule out the possibilty of Braley taking it. The RCP average gives Ernst an 0.8% lead.
I just hope that there are more Braley gaffes coming.
toast
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.