Skip to comments.Spoiler Alert in VA Governor Race
Posted on 09/13/2013 5:38:57 AM PDT by markomalley
Spoiler candidate alert: Libertarian Robert Sarvis is a third-party candidate in the 2013 Virginia governors race. Although polling reveals that it is unlikely for him to win, will he split votes away from Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli in the process?
Election day is less than 60 days away, and Republican Ken Cuccinelli and Democrat Terry McAuliffe are in crunch time. However, neither candidate option fully satisfies voters. According to a recent poll of likely voters, only 34% of likely voters hold McAuliffe in a favorable opinion, and only 35% hold Cuccinelli in this regard.
Reflecting the mood of the Virginia race, Barton Hinkle likened the choice to choosing between Sauron and SpongeBob Squarepants.
For Virginia voters torn by this dilemma, Robert Sarvis may be an exciting prospect. Born and raised in the Northern Virginia area, he possesses a background prime for Virginia politics. Impressively, he received his undergraduate degree from Harvard, went on to receive a degree in mathematics from the University of Cambridge, a J.D. from N.Y.U School of Law, and a Masters in economics from George Mason University.
Sarvis champions the campaign slogan, Virginia: Open-minded, and Open for Business. According to his campaign website, he espouses ideals of personal and economic freedoms. Having a mixed race heritage, he promises to bring diversity to the position.
However, despite his impressive background, it is unlikely that Sarvis offers Virginians a plausible alternative winner.
Notably, his greatest obstacle is that as a third party candidate, he does not command the same media spotlight or campaign spending dollars as McAuliffe or Cuccinelli. For example, he was not invited to a recent Virginia gubernatorial candidate debate.
But, will Sarvis be to blame if Cuccinelli loses the election?
At this time, Cuccinelli seems likely to lose whether Sarvis runs or not. For evidence, compare polling data that pairs only Cuccinelli and McAuliffe against each other, to data that includes all three candidates. When only Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are paired, McAuliffe is in the lead at 48%-42%. Meanwhile, data that includes all three candidates depicts McAuliffe at 45.2%, Cuccinelli at 37.3%, and Sarvis is a distant third at 9.5%.
Judging by this criteria, it appears that McAuliffe is the front-runner, with or without Sarvis, for the time being. However, as the momentum of his campaign picks up, this may change in the future.
Cuccinelli needs to hammer home that McAuliffe is a gun grabber and is supported by Bloomberg. Bring in people from Colorado to make the case.
There is little reason from history to think that will happen. The only good VA senator they have had since the senior Harry Byrd was Bill Scott, the one who held a press conference to deny that he was "dumb". After after Scott, it was the first Warner, who turned more liberal every year he was there. I don't know of any particularly good VA governors probably since the senior Byrd either.
We get good people and selfish Libertarians screw it up.
I said he was a strong conservative. The unfortunate reality is that Virginia is trending blue in statewide elections due to the infestation of northern Virginia. Odumbo won VA twice. Many people, including GOP-e, feel that a conservative like Cuccinelli can't win in a purple state and are pushing moderates as a result. Virginia Republicans gave the finger to GOP-e and did what everybody on this board wants Republicans to do - nominated a real conservative. Being concerned about the third party candidate doesn't mean Cuccinelli isn't a strong candidate, but reflects a belief that the third party candidate will take more votes from Cuccinelli than McAuliffe. We'll just have to see how it plays out.
It is very good that VA closed their candidate selection and didn't hold open primaries.
Nobody is less of a crook than McAuful.
More of a crook
I should clarify: There is no crook out there who is less of a crook than Terry Global Crossing McAuful.
Some, like Jon Corzine, Chris Dodd, Hillary Rodham, Anthony Rezko, are equally crooked. But as a crook he is right up there with any crook you can think of...
Johnnie, What/Who are the “GOP-E?”
“If he is a strong candidate, then why is there concern about a 3rd party spoiler?”
Todd Aiken would be a perfect examaple of the kinds of strong candidate purists like you would nominate.
thank you. Oh yes, my initial post was 110% sarcasm.
I just can’t speak English, you’re right, no crook is a bigger crook = more of a crook. I’m on bad meds.
If we can only work out a trade giving up Fairfax and Arlington Counties and getting Western Maryland in return.
There are plenty of liberal(R)s in congress. They support the liberal agenda, including abortion, obamacare, and 2nd amendment restrictions. Cornyn is one of my senators that has supported the democrat's liberal policies one too many times, and I will be doing everything I can to make sure he gets primaried.
Take your automatic GOP support elsewhere, because I'm not a Republican, I'm a conservative.
You wrote: "No one can ever tell for sure how Perot affected the 1992 elections"
This kind of contradicts your original post about Perot costing Bush the election, more importantly, as we all should have seen back in 2000 - its the ELECTORAL COLLEGE that matters. It's been too long since I first checked to remember the exact results, but there were just way too many states where, even if Bush got 80% of the votes for Perot (not happening), Clinton still would win all that state's electoral votes. Hell, in my state - MAryland - even if ALL of Perot's votes are given to Bush, Clinton still wins the state.
My post was unlabeled sarcasm. Like you, I’m mystified where the folks that are calling Cucchinelli a “RINO” are coming from. Are they truly ultra conservatives, or are they Dim0crit plants trolling FR to create chaos?
I expect liberal Lindsey will get replaced in the senate, for sure.
Please explain your reasoning that Cuccinelli is a liberal or GOP-e - without relying on this article.
You are correct, however, Cucinelli does not support any of those things.
If Virginia votes in that POS clintionista they deserve EVERY thing he will dump in their laps...
You have continually said he was part of the GOP-e, even when given evidence to the contrary. This is the first article I have seen that is claiming the 3rd party candidate will hurt Cuccinelli, most articles, in the decidedly left press I unfortunately read, rarely mention him and just cheer lead for McAwful.
Since you wont be voting here in November, why are you attacking those that will be and are supporting the conservative candidate?
What does that have to do with my comment?
BTW, as was mentioned, it was Cuccinelli who pushed for the convention AGAINST the wishes of the GOP-e.
But, based on this thread, I suspect you're not a full-blown conservative, either. There are 3 stool legs to conservatism - social, fiscal and defense. If you don't have all 3 legs, your conservatism falls flat.
I probably would classify you as a libertarian with some conservative tendencies. And there's nothing wrong with that -- if that's your ideology.
I understand your frustration with the GOP-e, I really do. I'm just as frustrated.
But advocating support for a Libertarian candidate who is pro-abortion and pro-amnesty just to spite the GOP-e while helping elect a slimy Clintonite is lunacy.
Spite the GOP-e in primaries - absolutely! Support a 3rd party conservative in a general election - fine. Stay home if there is no 3rd party conservative candidate - okay. At least you remain consistent to your ideals.
And - as your 4th option - if you have to compromise your ideals, hold your nose and vote for the guy who offends you the least.
Yes, I have attacked the GOP in general, and those that blame GOP losses on 3rd party spoilers, when liberal candidates are the primary cause of losses.
How many laws is the guy talking about repealing? How many pro-gun laws is he talking about? How many times in his past has he pushed grassroots conservative causes? How can those that destroyed the country fix the problem?
Crappy GOP-E candidates are the enemy.
If you run a bad candidate, blaming the voters for not voting for your guy is pretty stupid.
And yet another -
The weak GOP-E candidates seem to be doing a great job of allowing perverts into the classroom. I guess that's what you want. As I said, if you have to worry about 3rd party spoilers, your candidate sucks. What is your plan to get more conservative GOP candidates?
Now tell me you haven't said he was part of the GOP-e -- we are talking about a specific candidate here, not some generic hypothesis.
We have a conservative candidate, but you choose to ignore that fact. Why?
Every attack ad I have seen aimed at him is because of his conservative creds, and that goes for the rest of the ticket.
Care to elaborate on this............as I've got no clue of who or what your are speaking.
If he is conservative, and you guys want him, I wish him all the best.
I am however, tired of the whiners here on FR blaming their losses on 3rd party when crappy candidates are generally the problem.
Of course, it's easier to whine about 3rd party than it is to close the primaries in a state.
Kudos to VA for doing that.
Didn't you advocate supporting the Libertarian candidate for the VA governor's race to spite the GOP-e in this thread?
I have said repeatedly that people need to quit whining about 3rd parties and look to the crappy candidates if they lose.
I understand what you are saying, and I agree. I don't personally know anyone who thinks he's a crappy candidate, although I do know many think so, but they also supported the Lt Gov and an open primary, I didn't support either.
Give me a break. Maybe you ought to worry about Colorado, which has a lot more problems that VA does, and let us worry about VA.
Why the huge defense for 3rd parties? Sometimes the 3rd party independent candidates ARE the cause of a Republican defeat in a plurality election.
Here's an example. Last year in Wisconsin, an out-of-state Tea Party group and other purportedly conservative independent national groups supported a 2012 Senate primary candidate - Mark Neumann - whom local Wisconsin conservatives had rejected as phony.
In 2010, Neumann was badly losing the Republican primary race for governor and objected to the GOP convention endorsing his opponent. Neumann even threatened to run to the left as a 3rd party candidate in the general election against now-Gov. Scott Walker.
Neumann resurfaced in the 2012 Senate race and was directly responsible for GOP-e former governor Tommy Thompson winning the primary with a 35% plurality of the vote. The other 3 candidates, 2 actual conservatives and Neumann, split the majority conservative primary vote. If Neumann had simply dropped from the race when it became evident he could not win, Wisconsin's GOP Senate nominee and likely current junior Senior would have been a conservative private businessman.
Let VA elect their own candidate and if they want to whine about the 3rd party causing a defeat, let them. It's their state. Besides, their whining about 3rd parties being harmful could be accurate!
Yes, if they elected MacAulife then they deserve their fate of a higher taxes, business fleeing, etc.
The Virginia House of Delegates is 2/3 Republican. The Virginia Senate is 20R/20D. The Republicans did recently approve a tax increase and a couple of the supporters were successfully primaried as as a result. That was a warning to the other squishy Rs. McAuliffe's only role would be as a spoiler. He would not be able to get much, if anything, actually done. That said, I sure don't want him to win.
Not to mention government employees
“Thank you Libertarians last time you and other third party conservatives cost us 8 houe seats a US Senate seat and 1 governorship.”
You are welcome. Sounds like you are a three year old and you have lost your lollypop.
If a candidate desires my vote he needs to earn it. LIMITED G’Ment at ALL levels
“Third party candidates elect Democrats. Libertarians need to be outlawed.”
Spoken like a true Communist - Zig Hail
Vernon parker a promising conservative lost to K. Sinema a looney lefty thanks to the libertarians. Jonathon Patton lost to Ann Kirkpatrick in the same state. Of course that radical leftist Republican Mia Love lost because of the libertarians as well. Frank Giunta lost to Carol Che Porter thanks to the libertarians. Rehberg a perfectly good Conservative congressman lost to Testor for the same reason in the Montana Senate race. Boy, I guess you guys really showed them. See what happens when you put the Dem’s in charge permanently and see if there isn’t a difference between Dem’s and Republicans. I guarantee you will never get the country back. See how you feel then.
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