Potential Republican Crack-Up

For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.

The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.

I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.

There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.

Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.

So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.

However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.

I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."

At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.

I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.

With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.

This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.

With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."

Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.

With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.

These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.

I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.

I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....

But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.

As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.

Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.

If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.

Good Morning, T-C,

I finished my short story...

Tabula Rasa

Rodney Canfield, Ph.D., had always been puzzled by a phenomenon he had witnessed many times, beautiful fat flakes of snow falling on a day when it seemed too warm to last. Normally it didn’t.

So then why did it form in the first place? Oh, he had heard all the glib explanations about micro-climates, warm fronts, and temperature inversions. He knew they were all just, forgive the expression, “blowing hot air.”

The truth was, nobody could explain it.

That’s why he was so excited to get the grant which would enable him to do his research!

“Tina! We got it! I got the research grant! This should fund me for more than a year!” He was unable to contain his enthusiasm, bursting through the door with his voice at top volume.

Tina leaned out of the bathroom door with an artfully draped towel and smiled. “There is some wine we can open for the occasion!” She suggested.

Their celebration was a merry one, and many of their friends heard the good news and wished them both luck.
***

Six months later, Rodney thought they had run out of it. They had relocated to a staff cottage at Granite Peak Ski Resort. Rodney had studied everything that even remotely pertained to the phenomenon, and had even taken seasonal employment with the crew who operated the “snow-making” equipment, but he was no closer to solving the riddle.

He slumped in a chair with the latest print-outs at his feet. “I don’t get it, Tina. I know there’s something going on. We’ve even seen this effect happen right here since we moved in. But I still haven’t come up with an explanation, or even a direction to investigate!”

Tina brought him another coffee, with the frothy topping he enjoyed. “You remember when I suggested that you look into aerogels?”

He looked up. “Thanks. Yeah, I remember. You know they are worlds apart. I explained it to you.”

“Sure. But I still keep coming back to it. Suppose you had a snowflake-shaped aerogel? Like, a whole bunch of them.”

Rodney sipped the coffee cautiously. He closed his eyes and leaned back, visualizing the concept. “Okay.”

“They would float down just as light as snowflakes, wouldn’t they? Maybe even lighter!”

“All right. I’ve got the picture. Very pretty.” He opened his eyes again. “What’s your point?”

“Simple. All you have to do is make a snowflake that thinks it’s an aerogel!”

Rodney smiled, and leaned forward to kiss her. Bless her heart, she was trying to keep him cheered up, at least.

He smiled as she walked back into the tiny kitchen. “Yeah, that would be a good trick.” He thought.

But afterwards, he began dwelling on the notion. Aerogels were simple solutions in which removing the water left the shadow of the material that was dissolved in it. The bones of a liquid solution. Rodney smiled again.

“Sure! All I have to do is make snowflakes out of dehydrated water, and I’m all set!” He thought wryly to himself.

Still, maybe there was something ...

***

“Look at the sequence, Tina! See how the air currents swirl around the artificial snowflake? This behavior is identical to what happens in the real world, with real snowflakes. That’s what makes them last while falling through the warmer air! They’re carrying a little parachute of colder air with them. It’s the opposite of bubbles rising in a liquid, it’s a bubble of cold air falling through warmer air, with a snowflake at its center. That’s what gives it its temperature stability!”

“I get it! The snowflake parachutes down, and remains stable until it touches the ground, and its cold-air bubble pops!”

Rodney looked thoughtful. “Yeah, that’s it. I wonder if there’s a way to make it not pop?”

Canfield knew that water could be super-cooled, brought to a temperature well below freezing, without its solidifying. Was there a mechanism to reverse this? Could crystals of water be “super-warmed” without breaking down the crystalline structure? It seemed to depend on the filamentous edges of the crystal. If there were a way to prevent their touching things or absorbing heat ...

***

“Tina! Come outside! Oh, and bring your jacket!”

“What’ve you got?” She was zipping up her jacket, and shaking the hair out of her eyes.

“How warm do you thing it is right here?” Rodney asked.

She looked around, smelling and sensing the air. “I’d guess low to mid fifties, why?”

“Look at this!” He poured some white flakes out of an insulated flexible carry-bag onto the patio table. There in the shade, he knew the table would be at the ambient air temperature.

The pile of flakes sat unceremoniously on the table, doing nothing.

“Now, for comparison ...” He picked another, similar bag and dumped its contents in a similar pile. Tina recognized it as the kind of artificial snow that was made up on the mountain, by using water and liquid nitrogen.

They watched the two piles.

Slowly, it became apparent that the “nitrogen” snow was melting at the edges, forming a dark wet ring on the table surface. The other pile remained unchanged. Tina picked up a small quantity of it in her bare hand.

At first, it felt like feathers, or flour, neither cold nor hot. Suddenly, almost instantly, it melted. Her hand was wet. She sniffed it, then wiped it on her pantleg. She looked up at Rodney.

“It’s a new kind of artificial snow, Tina! Warm snow! I’ve done it!” He grabbed her and picked her up in an excited bearhug.

“How? I thought you were stuck?”

“I finally realized that the whole secret to it was the somewhat random shapes that occur on the ends of snowflakes. There is a specific configuration which harnesses all the forces to create the features I wanted; static electricity, air-entraining, even a minor “ground-effect” which isolates the crystal. It occurs in nature, too, but much too rarely.”

She stared again at the pile of crystalline water. “Are you saying these flakes are somehow ... clones of each other?”

Canfield laughed. “Yes! That’s one way to describe it. I’ve discovered, and developed, a chemical agent which causes something like an enzymatic reaction when the crystals are forming. It’s like a bakery, and my chemical is the bread pan. The flakes form in the shape I want, and then the pan is emptied, and a new crystal starts forming.”

He looked up at the mountain. “Just a few ounces can catalyze tons of this new snow. It’s just a fraction of the cost of the liquid nitrogen. With my patented chemical, ski resorts like this one will be able to make snow for months longer in the season than before, and still save money. We’re going to be rich!”

“Patented? I thought the results of your study belonged to the granting authority.”

“Yes, yes. The study. The results of the study of snow crystals and their formation, and what causes them to be unnaturally extended sometimes. But that’s just information. The chemical used to catalyze the process is an invention. A man-made catalyst similar to some refrigerants. We’re going to sell tons of it, at fabulous profits!”

Tina finally accepted the possibility, and became as excited as he. They danced clumsily together in childlike merriment.

***

Nine years later, Rodney was staring out a huge expanse of insulated glass at a postcard-beautiful Wintry scene. He held a glass of sherry in his hand, sipping occasionally. He sighed.

Tina came to stand beside him. “You didn’t know, Rodney. You couldn’t have known.”

He put his arm around her and pulled her close. She had been there with him through it all; The triumph, and the tragedy.

“No, I didn’t know. But I could have proceeded more slowly. It didn’t have to go this far.” Sighing again, he led her back to sit at the couch and look out at the landscape of luminous alabaster. They had nowhere to go, and no reason to leave.

“When I started, we couldn’t keep up with demand. Ski resorts, movie houses, even governments were vying for contracts to supply “warm snow.” New factories started pumping the gas out by the tons. We bought manufacturing plants to make the specialized snow-making equipment, and leased the rights to new start-up companies. Even the money rolled over us like an avalanche.” He glanced for a moment at the numerous glittering jewels adorning Tina’s hands and neck.

“Three years after we started, the reports began to come in. At first we discounted them. No one could envision a way that the process could get away from us like that. We were the only source of the gas. How could it happen without it?”

He swirled the contents of his glass and looked into it. “We didn’t realize that with every use, some of the gas was escaping from us, and was beginning to collect in the upper atmosphere. It shouldn’t have been a problem, because we knew it was unstable when exposed to ultraviolet light. But we had made so much of it!”

“It persisted, and it became a feature of weather all over the globe. Within two more years, the snow coverage was year-round in the most Northerly climates, and two years after that, every land mass beyond the fortieth parallel was covered in snow all year.”

“You shouldn’t blame yourself, Rodney. Three fourths of all that gas was made by bootleggers, and most of that occurred after you had suspended operations!”

He gave her a wan smile. “Yes, they started cutting into our profits in a major way. But by then we had made our fortune. And by then the damage had been done.”

“Oh, come on Rod! The scientific community has agreed that this is only a temporary phenomenon. Within another decade, all of the gas will have dissipated, and things will start getting back to normal. The ice-roads carry the food grown in the tropical areas up to the people who have been resettled in the snow villages. It’s as if the whole world went on Winter Holiday! With the global cooperation required, war went away, and you’ll remember that before this, we were very worried that global warming was going to destroy whole cities of people.”

“Oh, yeah! Global warming!” He laughed again. “Thanks for reminding me. I had almost forgotten about that. -- Yep Saved the world, I did.” He drained the rest of his sherry and stared silently out at the vast and empty whiteness.

NicknamedBob . . . . . 08/17/2005

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