I’m sorry, but this analysis doesn’t take into account anything other than wishcasting.
You completely ignore the polls, EV data, fundamentals, and most importantly, exposure.
Picking up that many seats in the House, would require cracking deep Blue urban districts that went for Biden by 30 points.
Picking up 7 Senate seats would require holding PA, and then sweeping GA, AZ, NV and NH, PLUS winning CO, WA and then winning two more out of VT, NY, CT, CA, MD, OR and HI.
Insane wishcasting is as bad as the doomer threads.
I DO believe that flipping the House is a guarantee, as well as a likely flip in the Senate.
Beyond that, 240 in the House and 53-54 in the Senate is possible, but your numbers are not.
Great analysis, TexasGurl. We can only hope and pray that both of us are wrong and OneVike is correct.
I think you are spot on. A 57-58 senate would leave a smoking crater in dc.
“Insane wishcasting is as bad as the doomer threads.”
Precisely. And that’s pretty much all this is.
I’d be particularly interested in knowing exactly which 7 state legislatures (as if there’s only 1 legislative body per state) this analysis reveals are going to flip from R to D this year.