[tanknetter]

This is very much a tunnel vision analysis. It assumes that Cruz will grow only evangelical Christians, neglecting possible inroads with White and Hispanic Catholics as well.

It also relies on past voter turnout models. But will Hillary be able to generate the same level of turnout as Obama from the 2012 coalition? Will Cruz (or any Republican) not be able to generate more than Romney’s turnout?

[moehoward]

So what are we really looking at from Evangelicals, 20% (+/-) ?

Throw in a few percent of the cafeteria religious types and it’s 25% ish ?

[Dr. Sivana]

It assumes that Cruz will grow only evangelical Christians, neglecting possible inroads with White and Hispanic Catholics as well.

At every stop, Cruz makes special mention that one of the things he will do on day one is drop the Obama case against the Little Sisters of the Poor. Catholics of all kinds (who aren't Obamabots) respond positively to that sort of action.

[FourPeas]

Will Cruz (or any Republican) not be able to generate more than Romney’s turnout?

This is a real concern. Would Romney get a better turnout if he were to get the nomination again? Doubtful. If he couldn't get it versus an Obama second term, why would Bernie or Mrs. Clinton be any different.

GOP needs to listen very carefully to its voters. Those who sat out last time aren't beyond doing it again. They repeatedly say so. It's a candidates job to *earn* votes. If the GOP nominee can't (or won't), it does no good for the GOP to insist "there's no other place to go" and hope it all turns out OK.