Skip to comments.
Ted Cruz makes his move
Religion News Service ^
| November 25, 2015
| Professor Mark Silk
Posted on 11/25/2015 9:32:37 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
click here to read article
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-28 last
To: x
but it doesn't look like the state is that great a
predictor of who will win the nomination.
************
Iowa likes to make a splash but as you point out it's not always the predictor.
There are three more caucus gathers in Iowa before they settle on the final number.
Rules were changed form 2012 to give more of a precedent to the Feb. 1 caucus than in
the past.
I didn't think it would be easy to defeat Cruz with the religious vote going his
way. But I've read some articles that Trump has a solid ground game there also.
So we'll see in about 67 days who is the winner.
21
posted on
11/25/2015 2:31:37 PM PST
by
deport
To: SmokingJoe
RCP averages 11/22/2015
To: entropy12
23
posted on
11/25/2015 2:42:58 PM PST
by
deport
To: 2ndDivisionVet; SmokingJoe
Since 1976...Except for 2012, 2008, and 1980... Iowa has voted for the eventual GOP nominee.
In 2012 Santorum actually got a 34 more votes than Romney.
In 1980 George H.W. Bush won Iowa over Reagan by about 1.5%.
Of course there were years that a sitting president was running unopposed.
So from 1976 until 2012, the eventual GOP nominee has won or finished a close 2nd except for 2008.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3353881/posts
So it is important to do well in Iowa.
Glad to see Cruz moving up!
To: kygolfman
As another FReeper commented yesterday, people love a winner. As the first in the nation contest, Iowa gets to crown the first winner.
25
posted on
11/25/2015 3:02:35 PM PST
by
FourPeas
(Tone matters.)
To: entropy12
REUTERS 5-DAY ROLLING POLL:
TRUMP 38%,
CRUZ 11.6%,
CARSON 11.5%,
RUBIO 8.2%
26
posted on
11/25/2015 3:07:50 PM PST
by
newfreep
(TRUMP/Cruz 2016 - "Evil succeeds when good men do nothing" - Edmund Burke)
To: deport
Thank you very much for the link to the article about Trump’s ground game plan in Iowa.
To: FourPeas
This is a real concern. Would Romney get a better turnout if he were to get the nomination again? Doubtful. If he couldn't get it versus an Obama second term, why would Bernie or Mrs. Clinton be any different.
GOP needs to listen very carefully to its voters. Those who sat out last time aren't beyond doing it again. They repeatedly say so. It's a candidates job to *earn* votes. If the GOP nominee can't (or won't), it does no good for the GOP to insist "there's no other place to go" and hope it all turns out OK.
There's a body of thought out there that Romney lost because he either didn't, or couldn't work harder at turning out voters who would have cast ballots for them if only they were pushed just a little bit harder.
There are several good articles about that,
this one
Also to be considered is how the other side runs its voter identification and turnout effort. This article provides a nice overview. But in summary, Obama won in 2012 because his campaign expended its effort on getting non-voters who politically aligned with his base out to vote. Which turned out to be cheaper and more effective than the traditional "tack to the center" methodology. That's seen nicely in this graph:
In reality, the problem isn't just about ideology and enthusiasm. It's also very much about outreach and retail politics. A candidate can't earn votes if he doesn't know where or how to go about asking the voters for them.
There's been some suggestion out there that the GOP has a new voter id/targeting/mobilization system in place and operational. One that works (unlike Romney's "Orca"), and explains the series of "surprising" GOP high-margin wins/very-close losses in the last year.
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20, 21-28 last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson