thanks very much.
Have you seen anything less than about 75%/25% O/R for combined latino, prot/cath? If not and this is true, the latino non-cath would have to be near zero if they’re ratio was 50/50 or more, which would make the 53% of pew questionable. If Latino Evangelicals are more likely GOP, the figures do not indicate they voted this way.
37% of Catholics are Asian, Black or Hispanic; 17% for Evangelical Protestants.
As for blacks being inconsequential, they are 13.4% of the population compared to 16.4% for Hispanics.
I still the correlation of race being stronger than church/denomination: if we know whether a given congregation is white or non-white we can more consistently predict their vote than if we know the church/denomination.
Note that the 57% of weekly attendees who voted Romney apparently were of all classes. Also, what i said about blacks (9% of the electorate) being inconsequential was as regards black Catholics, which constitute (2007) only 5% of Catholics (highly predominantly from the West at 11%, versus 4-6% elsewhere), but 15% of black evangelical type churches (spread fairly evenly, even in the NE at 16%, but lowest in the West at 11%). 59% of African-Americans overall belong to historically black Protestant denominations, and 12% are unaffiliated.
Political affiliation or leaning in 2007 was 17%/74% Republican/Democrat for those in black Catholic churches, and 11%/76% for black evangelical churches.
Opposition to homosexuality 37% by black Catholics and 58% by black evangelicals.
Opposition to abortion was 35% by black Catholics and 53% by black evangelicals.
66% of black evangelicals and 36% of black Catholics say they attend services at least weekly. - http://www.pewforum.org/A-Religious-Portrait-of-African-Americans.aspx
22% of Asian-Americans are Protestants and 19% Catholic (while 26% are unaffiliated, with 52% of Chinese being so). 47% of Asian-American Protestants are or lean toward the Republican party, versus 36% Democrat. Asian-American evangelicals were at 56%/28%. Asian-American Catholics were at 42%/41% (Hindu Asian-Americans are at 9%/72% Republican/Democrat).
76% of Asian-American evangelical Protestants go to services at least once a week, followed by Catholics at 60%. Opposition to abortion and homosexuality is likewise higher among the former. - http://www.pewforum.org/Asian-Americans-A-Mosaic-of-Faiths-overview.aspx
Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics noted, “almost 7 million fewer whites voted in 2012 than in 2008. White evangelicals, however, do not appear to be the culprits. They comprised 26 percent of the electorate this year, compared to 23 percent in 2004, an equally narrow election with one of their own on the ticket, and they supported Romney in equal percentages to Bush.
By 2011, , the number of mainline Protestants favoring the Republican Party had jumped by six points to 51%, and Democratic support had dropped by six points to 39%. White mainline Protestants are now 12 points more likely to express support for the GOP than for the Democratic Party.
49% white Catholics in 2008 supported for the Democratic Party and 41% identified as Republican or saying they lean toward the GOP. By 2011, the figures were reversed, 42% expressed support for Democrats and 49% for Republicans.
Religiously unaffiliated voters - the fastest growing block - 61% identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, versus 27% for Republicans. - http://www.pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/Trends-in-Party-Identification-of-Religious-Groups-affiliation.aspx
In 2011, all basic groups (all Catholic, Protestants, Mormons, Jewish, atheist/agnostic) showed increased support for Republicans.
White evangelicals under 30 are now more heavily Republican than those over 30 (82% vs. 69%). And among white non-Hispanic Catholics under age 30, support for the GOP has increased from 41% in 2008 to 54% in 2011.
Protestants overall made up 48% of all Christians in 2012, down from 53% in 2007. Catholics made up 23% in 2007 and 22% in 20012. [2002 Statistics compiled by the U.S. bishops’ Secretariat for Hispanic Affairs reported that 71 percent of the U.S. Catholic population growth since 1960 was due to Hispanics].
In the last five years alone, the unaffiliated have increased from just over 15% to just under 20% of all U.S. adults. 32% of adults under 30 have no religious affiliation, compared with just 9% who are 65 and older.
14% of of Americans say they have no particular religious affiliation with self-described atheists and agnostics making up nearly 6% of the U.S. public. However, 68% of the religiously unaffiliated say they believe in God 58%, and 21%)say they pray every day, while 37% classify themselves as “spiritual” but not “religious.”
In 2012, just 50% of those who say they seldom or never attend religious services still retain a religious affiliation – a 10-point drop in five years. In the 2008 presidential election, they voted as heavily for Barack Obama as white evangelical Protestants did for John McCain. More than six-in-ten religiously unaffiliated registered voters are Democrats (39%) or lean toward the Democratic Party (24%). They are about twice as likely to describe themselves as political liberals than as conservatives. - http://www.pewforum.org/Unaffiliated/nones-on-the-rise.aspx
[2012] 70% of Latino registered voters identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 22% identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party.
47% of white Catholics identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party, while 46% supported the GOP in the mid-September [2012] poll, while 72% of white evangelicals identified with the GOP.
Latino Catholics made up 57% of the electorate in 2012 and 71% are Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, and 21% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Among Latino evangelical voters, about half are Democrats or lean Democratic, while about a third are Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party.
White, non-Hispanic Catholics express about as much support for same-sex marriage as Hispanic Catholics do (53% and 54%, respectively). White evangelical Protestants are somewhat more opposed to gay marriage (76%) than are Hispanic evangelical Protestants (66%). - http://www.pewforum.org/Race/Latinos-Religion-and-Campaign-2012.aspx#president
Weekly Church attendees (28% of the electorate) voted 57%/39% Romney/Obama; more than weekly (14% of the electorate) voted 63%/36% and “never” attendees (17% of the electorate) were at 34%/62%. - http://www.pewforum.org/Politics-and-Elections/How-the-Faithful-Voted-2012-Preliminary-Exit-Poll-Analysis.aspx
15% of Hispanics overall identified themselves as evangelicals. 64% have at least a high school diploma, and about 39% have a household income of less than $30,000 per year Among Hispanic eligible voters who were evangelicals, 37% said they considered themselves Republicans and 32% said they were Democrats. - http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedfiles/Topics/Demographics/hispanics-religion-07-final-mar08.pdf
Espinosa said for every one Latino who converts or returns to Catholicism, four defect or leave the Church.
According to the Hispanic Churches in American Public Life national survey:
The first generation of Latino immigrants is 74 percent Catholic, and 15 percent Protestant.
The second generation is 72 percent Catholic, and 20 percent Protestant.
The third generation is 62 percent Catholic, and 29 percent Protestant.
According to the Census Bureau, the Latino population in the United States grew from 22.4 million in 1990 to 41.3 million in 2004, adding a staggering 18.9 million people in 10 years. Broader estimates, which include Puerto Rican islanders (4 million) and undocumented immigrants (5 million), put the U.S. Latino population at over 50 million.
In 2003, Latinos surpassed African-Americans as the largest minority group in the United States. Latinos now represent about 14 percent of the U.S. population. This spectacular growth is a result of both immigration and high domestic birth rates. About 53 percent of all immigrants to the United States come from Latin America. Mexicans and Mexican-Americans make up 58 percent of all foreign born Latin-American immigrants. (http://www.nhclc.org/news/latino-religion-us-demographic-shifts-and-trend)
A slight majority of Catholics (52%) say they are against gay marriage, but a significant minority (32%) favors it. Similarly, Latino evangelicals are more than 20 percentage points more likely than Catholics to say that abortion should be illegal in most or all circumstances.
Among registered voters in 2007, 50% of white Evangelicals and 36% of Latino Evangelicals were Republican, 25% of the former and 36% of the latter were Democrats. 23% white Evangelical and 19% of Latino Evangelicals were Independents. - http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedfiles/Topics/Demographics/hispanics-religion-07-final-mar08.pdf
Almost 20% of all Latino American Catholics have left the Roman Catholicism, with 23 percent of second-generation Latino Americans doing so.
51% of Hispanic Evangelicals are converts, and 43% are former Catholics.
82% of Hispanics cite the desire for a more direct, personal experience with God as the main reason for adopting a new faith. Among those who have become evangelicals, 90% say it was a spiritual search for a more direct, personal experience with God was the main reason that drove their conversion. Negative views of Catholicism do not appear to be a major reason for their conversion (http://www.baylor.edu/content/services/document.php/33304.pdf)
Another distinctive trait of megachurch participants is their extremely high rates of participation and involvement. It is estimated that fifty percent of Chapel Hill Harvester Church’s membership were weekly attenders, who consistently contributed large amounts of money, and regularly participated in church ministries (Thumma, 1996a). Both Miller (1997 Go to
Bibliography) and Perrin found that over 75 percent of their respondents in studies of “new paradigm” movements attended worship services every week (1989:103). Another study of a very large Presbyterian church showed that three quarters of its membership attended weekly and gave nearly 1200 dollars per member annually (Stevenson 1993). Judging from those megachurches for which data are available, giving appears to be a minimum of between 1000 and 1500 dollars per person each year. This is considerably more than the estimated national average of 445 dollars per church member in 1992 (Niebuhr 1995b Go to Bibliography).
Every study of megachurch members indicates that personal religious practices take place at high rates as well. Members claim to pray, participate in religious study groups, evangelize, and read religious literature at rates considerably higher than national averages for conservative Protestant believers (See Perrin 1989 compared to Roof & McKinney 1987). Given that megachurches both require massive numbers of volunteer workers and offer hundreds of religious and social activities in which to be engaged, it is not surprising to find high rates of involvement by committed members. Willow Creek, for instance, requires 1000 volunteers a week to conduct its services. (Chandler 1989:A28). At the same time, one of the most prominent messages of many megachurches is that religion is not just a Sunday enterprise, but rather is a 24 hour a day, seven day a week lifestyle. Few megachurches preach that their members should retreat from the world. In fact, the opposite is nearly always stressed, that members should become “salt and light to a lost world.” They are encouraged to change the system, take dominion, demonstrate the kingdom, and become world changers. This message finds a resonance with members since many of them report that they came to their megachurch intentionally to hear a stricter, more demanding, serious version of the Christian faith (Perrin 1989:141ff, 211, Thumma, 1996a Go to Bibliography).
Correction. Blacks constituted 13% of the electorate in the 2012 election, and the 9% figure refers to black Protestants.
And the source for the megachurch section is http://hirr.hartsem.edu/bookshelf/thumma_article2.html
Also of interest,
The 2012 electorate contained the smallest share of white voters and the largest share of nonwhite voters in American history. White voters constituted 72 percent of the electorate, down from 74 percent in 2008, 77 percent in 2004, and 81 percent in 2000. African-Americans made up the next largest share at 13 percent, the same as 2008, and up from 11 percent in 2004 and 10 percent in 2000. Hispanics constituted 10 percent of the electorate in 2012, compared to 9 percent in 2008, 8 percent in 2004, and 7 percent in 2000. Asian voters made up 3 percent of the 2012 electorate, an increase from 2 percent each in 2008, 2004, and 2000.
Mitt Romney won a larger share of the white vote than either John McCain or George W. Bush. Romney defeated Obama by 59 to 39 percent among whites, compared to McCain winning whites by 55 to 43 percent over Obama in 2008, while Bush won whites by 58 to 41 percent over John Kerry in 2004 and by 54 to 42 percent over Al Gore in 2000.
Mitt Romney won white voters in almost all demographic groups, usually by substantial margins. Romney’s campaign was extremely successful at appealing to white voters across the board, and won almost all white groups except Jewish voters. In every group listed below, Romney’s percentage in 2012 surpassed McCain’s percentage in 2008.
Romney lost among African-Americans by roughly the same margin as John McCain and by a greater margin than George W. Bush.
Romney lost Asians by the greatest margin in recent history, and by a greater margin than he lost Hispanics. Obama won among Asians in 2012 by 73 to 26 percent, compared to 62 to 35 percent over McCain in 2008. - http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/2012-the-year-changing-demographics-caught-up-with-republicans
Nationally, non-white voters constituted 28% of the electorate, up from 26% in the 2008 election, and President Obama again won 80% of these voters, according to the exit polls. The President won Latino voters by 44% points over Romney, an 8 point increase from 2008, while 93% of Black voters supported the president, down a notch from the 95% he had in 2008, (but still an 87 point differential). Said simply, 89% of Romney’s supporters were white (compared to 56% for Obama).
Finally, the role of nerds, geeks and their use of large datasets of voters contributed to the Obama victory over Romney. This is somewhat surprising considering Romney’s past reputation during his reign at Bain Capital as a “data guy.” In fact, as we are now learning, the Obama campaign hired a cadre of sophisticated and highly skilled data geeks to build the largest and most integrated voter database in history, with an incredible amount of micro-level personal data on each individual potential voter. As TIME Magazine’s Michael Scherer points out, it was this team of “data crunchers” who figured out the best way to raise small amounts of money from millions of donors, and who kept information up-to-date on who was registered, who was most likely to vote, and what the field operation needed to do to get as many of these voters to the polls. - http://news.columbia.edu/oncampus/2964