Posted on 06/08/2003 5:48:16 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
Mediation Ends With Accord in Venezuela
May 30: After six months of international mediation in Venezuela, opposition and government signed Thursday a 19-point accord to end violence and find a constitutional and electoral solution to the political crisis that undermines the legitimacy of President Hugo Chavez.
The government’s negotiating committee arrived in a red bus to the negotiations table after having rejected the agreement’s first two drafts during the past weeks. Chavez is said to feel happy about the document, which puts an end to expectations of violence in the country. He also is said to be glad that former strategies of economic and political devastation such as the general strike or coup attempts were over now.
The agreement text is respectful of the basic powers and of the National Electoral Council, the latter being a way to organize the referendum that would questions the president’s stay in power. The "international community" now has a mechanism, says the opposition, to ensure that the constitution shall not be violated and that elections will take place.
The National Assembly (Congress) will, once again, take its turn to try naming the five permanent and 10 temporary members that will constitute the National Electoral Council. The government, having somewhat more than 50 percent in Congress, will depend on political negotiations to grant a two-thirds majority for each of the members. The first vice president of the National Assembly affirmed “we shall be sure that the decision will be taken in Congress or in the Supreme Courts.”
The opposition, embodied in the Democratic Coordination Committee, which took a day to carefully review the accord, is still worried about the text not including a settlement for the fired workers of PDVSA, the state-owned oil company. Chavez himself fired the workers, who strongly protested during the strike, reducing the workforce of the company by around 17,000 people or 30 percent.
Zambrano, one of the Democratic Coordination Committee’s leaders, assures that the PDVSA issue will be resolved by giving back the jobs once the president steps out of office.
Juan Fernandez, the president of the Workers’ Union of PDVSA, complained about the accord not including articles related to the disarmament of violent groups or the role of the "international community" in appeasing violence.
The six-month mediation assistance by Gaviria, general secretary of the Organization of American States, ends with the agreement, thus cutting future interference by the world. Carter Center, however, will establish a branch in Caracas to help open roads toward electoral observations.
Charles Shapiro, U.S. ambassador, said that “the U.S. believes the agreement to be positive” and thinks that it was written in "good faith."
Argentina’s New President Will Use All Available Recourses
May 28: A few weeks ago, a protester stood in front of the presidential palace in Buenos Aires waving a sign that said, “Mr. President, the helicopter is waiting for you at the exit.”
The historical lack of faith of the population deepened with the presidential turnover unleashed by Menem’s involvement in a corruption scandal that set the stage for the social and economic collapse of the country. Since 1999, Argentina has had seven presidents.
Nestor Kirchner, the president-elect, skipped the second round after Menem, who on April 24 surpassed Kirchner in the first round of presidential elections by 2 percent with 24 percent retired from the race. Kirchner is scheduled to hold the post until December 2007.
Kirchner, a veteran of the Peronist Party's (Partido Justicialista) center-left wing announced in his inauguration speech that he would work to combat poverty and hunger by implementing economic and not social policies. He had said earlier that his government would not significantly depart from the direction the administration took with Duhalde, who was in power for 18 months and that it would work on increasing government spending through improved infrastructure projects.
Duhalde, who supported Kirchner all along his campaign, inherited a broke country with a debt burden equivalent to 114 percent of GDP. After defaulting on the debt, Duhalde soon started negotiations with the IMF to rollover its debt and qualify for an initial loan package that would stabilize the economy. His main achievements were the floating of the peso and the liberalization of frozen deposits.
Kirchner will most definitely continue with reforms required by the IMF to assure the country a feasible repayment schedule of its debt burden. IMF conditions include the reform of the banking system to assure creditor and investor protection, as well as structural changes to the inter-governmental lending and tax systems. The failure to collect taxes from the provinces and limitless borrowing from the different provincial governments represented a big leak for central funds during Menem’s period.
It would be natural to expect resistance in Congress as budget cuts to the provinces are ahead. Kirchner’s uncertain support by the majority of Argentina’s population may also tip municipal and other local elections coming ahead to the advantage of populist governors opposing austerity measures.
Kirchner’s handicap at the beginning of the presidential campaign had been the lack of support from provincial governments, around which Menem usually built his support base. Menem being out of the game does not mean that he will not come back or at least that those who worked around him will unite to back Kirchner with a single voice, especially now that the Peronist Party (Partido Justicialista) is fractured after it suspended internal elections to have three different candidates run for the presidential election on its behalf.
Kirchner, of Swiss and Croatian ascent, received international support on Sunday. Regarding internal conflicts, he mentioned in his speech, “I will use all available recourses in the constitution to pass needed reforms.”
Tough Election for Chavez
May 27: Less than 100 days from the referendum that would question the Venezuelan president’s term, all roads seem to be pointing to the Supreme Court for a decision.
The Supreme Courts of Justice may be undergoing the change that Hugo Chavez had long announced to be a milestone of his revolutionary plan. It is not certain, though, whether it is he who prompted the change, but in any of the cases, it comes at an awkward moment.
Chavez’s promise to "reform" the Supreme Courts of Justice has started to materialize with the approval of a procedure by Congress’ Interior Politics Committee to bypass the needed approval by two-thirds majority in Congress for the appointment of 12 more judges.
The breaking of the president’s support base had brought the Supreme Courts of Justice to a 10-10 balance, putting an end to the remarkable unanimity of the past.
The reform package consists not only of an expansion of the Supreme Court but also includes a law that would legally forbid annulling appointments of judges.
Implications of this law range from a quick sentence to the dissident generals accused of treason for rebelling against the government during the general strike to ultimate manipulation of the referendum conditions.
The rocky road to the referendum lead to the assignment of an ad-hoc commission assigned to appoint the five members of the Electoral Council that would be responsible for assuring smooth elections. The commission had been put in charge of breaking the stalemate in Congress, where a two-thirds majority to approve the five members has not been possible so far. Thursday the commission declared it failed to meet its objective after having extended its initial deadline.
The Supreme Courts of Justice could now be the only alternative left to name all of the Electoral Council or just the fifth, tie-breaking member by omission.
It is possible that whomever the judges end up assigning will be considered a transitory solution. The opposition is wary of transitory government officials, especially after having lost the opportunity to vote on a non-binding referendum in January because Chavez did not consider the Electoral Council’s director's term, elected by the Interim National Assembly, legitimate.
The now-dissolved Interim Constitutional Assembly had also appointed the twenty Supreme Court judges who now sit at the Supreme Justice Council in 1999. The transitory body acted in lieu of Venezuela’s Congress for close to two years. Its main task had been the approval of a new constitution. The Chavista vote reaching 98 percent of the Interim Assembly, it was not surprising that the constitution got approved with hardly any debate surrounding the major event.
Though still powerless, if spirits persist in spite of having to stand in long lines to buy food products worrying about unemployment and crime, the opposition will stage a constitutional debate. Chavez takes pride in following the constitution to perfection, but the clumsy drafting of the statutes of the Supreme Courts of Justice and the by passing of majorities in Congress could prove him at fault after all.
All being said, the new episode in Venezuela’s political struggle will give the opposition and the government time to rethink strategies for the referendum amid constitutional debates. The opposition may nominate one candidate to run against Chavez, and the president will fine-tune his party politics and feed his supporters to assure the 30 or 48 percent that he says is his piece of the universe of voters.
It may get complicated.
Bump!
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