Outbreak Originated in China (SARS Update)

Washington (com)Post ^ | March 17, 2003 | John Pomfret and Peter S. Goodman

[twntaipan]

By John Pomfret and Peter S. Goodman Washington Post Foreign Service Monday, March 17, 2003; Page A01

BEIJING, March 16 -- The deadly pneumonia-like illness that was the subject of a World Health Organization warning on Saturday originated in southern China in November and peaked a month ago, according to a report the Chinese government provided to WHO officials.

The outbreak has sparked months of panic buying of vinegar, herbal remedies and antibiotics in China. Epidemiologists suspect it is the same illness seen over the past two weeks in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Canada, Germany, Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia.

[twntaipan]

This is the first article that specifies that the American who died was a Chinese-American. Most of the cases are Asians--even the ones in Canada. Is it possible for a virus to vector in on an ethnic group?

[Braak]

Theoretically, perhaps...but it would be a real stretch for it to be natural. Frankly it would have to target certain DNA and RNA strands, and we're still reading the map of the human genome, but it is theoretically possible.

[Boundless]

> Is it possible for a virus to vector in on an ethnic group?

Sure. There are lots of diseases that affect some genetic
groups more severely than others. Are you supposing that
someone in China was trying to develop a virus that
affected only non-Asians, and it worked in reverse and
escaped the lab?

Here's the most interesting report I've seen all day:
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/thrive/2003/mar/16/031609499.html

Key points:
* spread outside China seems to be under control
* China claims it's peaked & people are recovering
* virus suspected (not bacterium, toxin, prion, etc.)
* some flus (not all) ruled out, could be new strain
* H5N1 bird flu specifically ruled out
* hemorragic fevers ruled out (ebola, etc.)
* some recent victims seem to be recovering
And the really wierd one (if China is credible)
* disease seemed to weaken as it passed from person to person.

Another remark today, from a doctor was that this agent
is "presenting" (originating and spreading) exactly as
would be expected for a new natural flu strain.

And I might add that the world IS expecting another
1918-type flu (virulent w/ high mortality) some day.

Tinhats may continue wild speculation however, because
there's a lot that's odd about this. I wouldn't even
necessarily rule out a PRC Bio-Warfare experiment that
got out of control. I would, however, feel comfortable
ruling out an "Andromeda Strain" resulting from their
nascent space program :-)

[Mike Darancette]

The deadly pneumonia-like illness that was the subject of a World Health Organization warning on Saturday originated in southern China..

Most pandemics do, including the 1918 "Spanish Flu".

[MCH]

The deadly pneumonia-like illness that was the subject of a World Health Organization warning on Saturday originated in southern China..
Most pandemics do, including the 1918 "Spanish Flu".

I saw a news magazine show a couple years back that claimed the reason for this was the propensity of poor Chinese peasants to sleep with pigs and chickens. Supposedly the close prolonged proximity between the species generates some nasty bugs.

[SaudiDuck]

If I remember correctly, one of the reasons for this has to do with the migration patterns of ducks and the fact that pigs and fowl are raised in such close proximity to humans. Viruses carried by the birds are easily transferred to the pigs, where they metamorphose into viruses that are easily transmitted among both pigs and humans.

[patton]

I think you have missed the boat...

[Boundless]

> I think you have missed the boat...

Yep. I hadn't seen that. To quote (circa 23 Feb)...

> So far, the CDC has received reports of at least 14
> children nationally who have died suddenly after
> experiencing upper respiratory infections and fevers...

* Anyone seen any linkage between the Feb outbreak and ASRS?
Seems like a different bug. ASRS seems to spread faster.

* Keep also in mind that the 1918 flu took a disproportionate
number of the young and healthy, and the 1918 flu was
entirely natural in origin (although I'm sure a lot of
people didn't think so at the time, because various
nasty chemical weapons had just been used in WW-I).

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

I remember reading a SiFi short story years ago about a substance which would only kill people and animals with a yellow hue to their skin.
The Chinese scientist on the board then ordered several variants of the chemical and lots of WHITE mice to experiment on.
Any one remember the story?

[Andy from Beaverton]

Do you know of the specifics of this virus? When I was in St. Petersburg, Russia in Jan./Feb. I came down with the strangest virus ever. At night I would go thru an incredible fevers sweating like never before and also suffering from chills. When I would lay down I would have a hard time breathing coughing up much flem. I was very sick for ten days and it took a couple of weeks to recover before I could work again. I wonder if this bug also hit Russia?

[Timesink]

Update: Experts Suspect Virus Is Cause of Asian Mystery Illness

[tallhappy]

This disease in China was news a month ago.

We were talking about it