Posted on 02/12/2003 11:10:31 AM PST by jerod
North Korea’s Launch Matters
ABCNEWS.com W A S H I N G T O N, Sept. 2, 1998 — North Korea’s launch of the Taepo Dong I ballistic missile is highly significant because of what it portends for the future: the ability of North Korea for the first time to project power beyond the Korean Peninsula.
The missile launch sent ripples across Asia far beyond the 900-mile flight test path. Now, if North Korea were to move ahead and actually deploy the missile, it could hit targets in Japan, including U.S. military installations.
And a future version known as the Taepo Dong II—with a projected range of some 2,500 to 3,700 miles—could hit Alaska as well as the eastern regions of Europe, making the communist regime in Pyongyang a potential worldwide threat.
Suited to Long-Range Missions
The technology behind the Taepo Dong program offers some clues to North Korea’s future plans. The two-stage liquid-fueled missile is particularly suited to long-range missions because the second stage is guided to its target after the stages separate.
It is also believed that the missile eventually will be outfitted with what is known as a separating warhead, which deploys from the second stage and then travels a highly accurate path to the final target. That would be an especially worrisome development if North Korea successfully outfits the missile with nuclear, chemical or biological warheads, as the United States fears it might.
As with all military matters in North Korea, little is really known about Pyongyang’s next move. In Western nations, missiles typically are tested for several years before they are deployed. But North Korea may follow the path already established in its shorter 620-mile range No Dong missile. A handful of No Dongs have been built without a lengthy test program. It is believed at least one is deployed and the others are being sold for currency to nations such as Iran and Pakistan.
One key question is how much of the Taepo Dong program still is based on decades-old Scud missile technology.
David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists suggested that the missile likely used the No Dong as its first stage and a Scud-type second stage. Based on those calculations, Wright estimates, the Taepo Dong may be able to carry a warhead weighing more than 2,000 pounds.
Wright also warns against giving North Korea too much credit. “It is worth pointing out that while the Taepo Dong I might be a step toward a longer-range missiles, the TD-1 in itself does not really increase North Korea’s capabilities against Japan. These missiles are so inaccurate that they can only be used for terror strikes against cities which North Korea could already carry out in other ways.”
That is little comfort at the moment for either the Japanese or the U.S. intelligence community that monitors North Korea around the clock.
U.S. Noted More Activity
The launch was not a surprise. Within the last month, U.S. intelligence had noticed increasing activity at the Taepo Dong launch site in northeastern North Korea. However, it was not until this latest period of activity that the United States thought a launch would come so soon.
This missile launch comes as North Korea continues to spend significant sums of cash on its weapons development. U.S. intelligence believes North Korea is tunneling out large areas of mountainsides to provide secret hiding places for ongoing nuclear weapons work and is also hiding significant amounts of weapons in railroads tunnels—all outside the eyes of American satellites.
So far, the Clinton administration is still holding to the policy that it will be at least the year 2010 to 2015 before another nation can threaten U.S. territory with ballistic missiles.
Congressional Republicans strongly believe that threat will come sooner and are pressing for quick funding of a “national missile defense” that could cost several billion dollars. The North Korean missile test will only fuel that debate.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
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