Posted on 02/06/2003 4:05:54 PM PST by knighthawk
AMMAN: US Patriot anti-missile batteries will begin arriving in Jordan Thursday ahead of an anticipated US-led invasion of neighboring Iraq.
Officials said the Patriots will be operational by Feb. 15, the date many in the region fear would signal the start of the countdown to war. The three batteries will be dismantled and taken back to the US once the conflict is over.
The growing US-Jordanian military cooperation, underpinned by a rapid increase in military supplies and joint exercises, also pose a challenge to King Abdullah from his largely anti-US, pro-Iraqi population.
The arrival of the Patriots came a week after Jordan took delivery of six F-16 fighter-bombers, the first batch of a full squadron expected in the coming months. They would reinforce an existing squadron of F-16s given to the kingdom in 1997 to reward it for its pro-US policies as well as a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. The Patriot batteries would help intercept Iraqi Scud missiles that could be launched at Israel across Jordan in the event of war, possibly forestalling Israeli retaliation, officials said.
Amman in return would allow the stationing of a discreet number of US military personnel to man the batteries and shield Jordan from becoming caught in the crossfire if Israel and Iraq engaged in conflict.
At least six of the Iraqi missiles that were fired at Israel in 1991 fell in remote areas of the kingdom.
The deployment of the controversial missiles, to protect the main cities of Irbid and Amman close to the border with Israel and a limited number of US troops could have political implications in a country where the majority of the population have deep misgivings about the impending war.
For months now, Jordan has maintained that it will not allow US troops to use its territory to launch attacks against Iraq, its main trade partner and sole supplier of its oil needs.
Diplomats here are confident that Washington would not push Jordan into playing a major logistical role in any invasion of Iraq to avoid destabilizing the kingdom. However, the US expects Amman to allow it to launch search-and-rescue missions by from airfields close to the border with Iraq, to house a mobile hospital and to turn a blind eye to overflights by American warplanes from aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean.
The US-trained and equipped Jordanian Army had been preparing to receive Russian S-300 surface-to-air missiles capable of responding to any airspace violations.
Washington gave Jordan the green light to secure the Russian system rather than Patriots after assessing that they could be more effective in intercepting the Scuds over Iraqi territory and prior to entering Jordanian airspace.
But Amman was compelled to turn to Washington last month after realizing that Moscow could not supply the batteries by February, when many in the region believe war could start.
The king and his army chief of staff, General Khaled Sarayrah, surprised the nation last month with a public request for the US system during talks with US General Tommy Franks, chief of Central Command.
But for King Abdullah, having to decide between his two main economic partners Washington and Baghdad is a lose-lose situation.
War next door could threaten Jordan’s social, economic and political fabric in a nation increasingly turning to religion amid rising poverty, unemployment and disenchantment with the perceived impotence of Arab states in the face of US and Israeli policies.
But unlike in the 1990s, when thousands of Jordanians took to the streets to oppose war, popular support for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has dwindled and is less pronounced.
“The upcoming US war on Iraq is against Islam; it is primarily to gain control over Iraqi oil reserves and to install a regime that is friendly to Israel,” said taxi driver Imad Salem, 26, echoing common held views. “If they really harbor good intentions, why didn’t they remove Saddam in 1991?”.
Jordan has finalized contingency plans to deal with the fallout of a conflict.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have agreed in principle to supply Jordan with its daily needs of over 80,000 barrels of oil at below market rates if Iraqi supplies stop. But the offer will never match that of Iraq, which supplies half of it for free and the rest at cut-rate prices. King Abdullah flew to Jeddah on Tuesday partly to push for more flexibility on terms for oil supplies, officials said.
Many officials expect the US to supplement the price difference by injecting emergency aid on top of the $450 million in military and financial aid promised in 2003.
Amman will be looking at new markets to make up for the expected fall in over $300 million in trade with Iraq. Over the last two years, the United States has emerged as Jordan’s largest Western trade partner and diplomats expect it to overtake Iraq within three months.
But other sectors, from tourism to investments and trucking, could take a heavy beating in a prolonged conflict.
The Jordanian Army is fortifying the border with Iraq and digging water wells to cope with a possible influx of refugees. Amman is negotiating an agreement with UN agencies that would be responsible for refugees in at least two “contained and guarded” camps that could be set up in areas close to the Jordanian side of the Iraqi border.
In public, officials still insist that Amman would close the borders with Iraq once war breaks out, but would facilitate the mission of international relief agencies.
Political and press freedoms, could be further compromised. Clear signals have been sent to the Islamist-led opposition that protests, feeding on anger at Israel’s crackdown on Palestinians, would not be tolerated.
Western embassies have prepared evacuation plans for their diplomats as the date of the conflict nears.
Not very good markmanship if you can't even hit the right country! Well they people living in the 8th century, dealing with mid 20th century technology, so I guess we could cut them some slack. But we won't!
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