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Posted on 01/09/2003 6:36:10 PM PST by maui_hawaii
BEIJING The United States and South Korea want China to mediate in the crisis over North Korea's nuclear weapons program. But Being's influence in Pyongyang, despite historical ties, is much exaggerated.
Ever since Deng Xiaoping started China's pro-market reforms, cut off direct aid and criticized Kim Il Sung's extravagant leadership cult, the two neighbors have been at odds. North Koreans even attacked or spat at Chinese who went there to study or visit, accusing them of betraying socialism for the sugar-coated bullets of capitalism.
Relations became yet more frigid after China established diplomatic relations with South Korea without insisting that America simultaneously recognize the North. The clearest evidence of Beijing's limited influence is its failure to persuade Pyongyang to copy China's economic reforms so as quickly to raise food production and bring in foreign investment.
China has endorsed the U.S. call for a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula, partly because of fears that an escalating crisis would prompt Japan and perhaps Taiwan to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs.
However, Beijing is wary of the Bush administration's plan to impose political isolation and economic sanctions on North Korea until Pyongyang abandons its nuclear drive. It fears the instability that could result and thus favors renewed talks between Washington and Pyongyang to ease tensions.
But Beijing does have potential leverage. China is North Korea's largest trade partner, a source of both significant quantities of food and energy and new military hardware. In 2001, the last year for which figures have been published, two-way trade was $740 million, accounting for about one-quarter of North Korea's trade.
Aid experts doubt that China provided any free grain to North Korea in 2002. In 1994 it was Beijing's decision to cut off low-price grain exports that forced the North to swallow its pride and appeal to the United Nations for emergency food aid.
China's priority lies not in giving aid but in pushing North Korea to open its economy to commerce. That would allow China's depressed northeastern region adjacent to the North to profit from road and rail links across the peninsula.
Frustrated by the lack of change, China has in recent years suspended flights to Pyongyang, cut off commercial lines of credit, closed down border crossings and even restricted freight cars from entering the North because they were never returned.
The late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung who was educated in Manchuria, spoke Chinese and joined the Chinese Communist Party. He could rely on strong personal ties to the Chinese leadership. There has been no such sympathy for his son and heir, Kim Jong Il.
On the contrary, Kim Jong Il encouraged anti-Chinese feelings in the early 1980s and purged the ruling Korean Workers' Party of anyone with strong links to China. The Chinese government is now probably as badly informed about what goes on in secretive North Korea as anyone else.
But China can see that Kim Jong Il has mismanaged the economy since he was put in charge in 1980. His erratic decision-making and poor understanding of how a market economy functions have doomed Shenzhen-inspired projects like the Rajin-Sonbong special economic zone on the border with China's Jilin Province.
Kim Jong Il's latest project, a special economic zone at Sinuiju, irritated Beijing when a Chinese private businessman, Yang Bin, was chosen to run it. Shortly afterward, he was arrested by Chinese authorities on suspicon of evading taxes.
Still, whatever doubts there are about Kim Jong Il's leadership, Beijing will not endorse U.S. policies if it suspects that they could lead to "regime change" and instability, including a wave of refugees flooding into China. China wants Pyongyang to forswear nuclear weapons. But Beijing is also committed to ensuring that the North survives as an independent state.
Instead of criticizing Kim Jong Il's nuclear ambitions and deceit, Chinese newspaper editorials are expressing exasperation with George W. Bush for abandoning Bill Clinton's engagement policies and for stoking tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Beijing may expect that Bush will be like Clinton, who spent two years pursuing confrontational policies with China and North Korea before doing an about-turn and opting for negotiations.
The writer is a journalist in Beijing and author of "The Chinese." Beijing and Pyongyang
Despite the varying reasons listed in the article (which I won't endorse those reasons), I think this might be more along the lines of general reality, IMO.
They are still good old boys, but the difference now is that N. Korea has not gone through 20 years of opening and China has. Some Chinese think of N. Korea as a friend, but a stubborn one unwilling to learn new things.
China wants N. Korea to open along the same route China has opened. In China's eyes, this is the ultimate goal.
China has "opened" but retains one party rule. They want N. Korea to do the same. Right now, N. Korea is somewhat of a burden to China in some ways. That 'burden' is not the most significant thing. Its more like 'North Koreans are old friends, just a bit unwilling to test new waters'.
China was doing its best to show N. Korea about the new Chinese style market economy etc etc. N. Korea did not bite just yet, albeit some Chinese think they were making headway. That is part of the reason why the Chinese are thinking Bush is going over the top and what they are critical of. Its the same kind of logic with the "sunshine policy".
The Chinese view in brief is that North Korea is a long term friend with a short term stubbborn idiot for a leader.
N. Korea today is about like China was 25 years ago.
China wants the N. Korean regime to stay intact. N. Korea is the closest thing China has to a best friend.
If N. Korea chooses to open, but remain intact, they will project a huge force in Asia. They will definately influence the South, and diminish "American" thinking in Asia.
I can see statecraft in all of this.
China has been working on N. Korea for a long time.
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