Gallup Poll: Broad Public Support for Variety of Economic Stimulus Proposals

Gallup ^ | 1/8/03 | Jeffrey M. Jones Gallup News Service

[Jean S]

Broad Public Support for Variety of Economic Stimulus Proposals: Expanded child tax credit, reduced "marriage

PRINCETON, NJ -- In Chicago on Tuesday, President Bush outlined his plan to help stimulate economic growth, one day after the Democrats in Congress released their own proposals. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted a few days earlier finds majority support for each of six specific economic recovery proposals, with the greatest level of support found for expanding tax credits for families with children and reducing the "marriage penalty" on taxes. Americans also believe these two proposals are the most likely to help the economy. In terms of the proposals' potential impact on their own financial situations, Americans are most likely to say that accelerated tax cuts will benefit their families, as would an increased child tax credit and reduced taxes for dual-earner married couples. Relatively few Americans believe that an extension of unemployment benefits or reduced taxes on stock dividends will benefit them personally.

The poll, conducted Jan. 3-5, prior to either party's formal announcement of a new economic stimulus plan, found that 49% of Americans approved and 47% disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy. This is well below his overall job approval rating of 63%, but not surprising considering the economy has struggled throughout most of his term. The 49% economic approval rating is tied for the lowest in Bush's presidency to date.

Now, Bush and members of Congress are committed to passing legislation to help improve the economy. The administration and the Democrats both call for extending unemployment benefits that expired in December, providing tax relief either by speeding up tax cuts scheduled to take place in the future (Bush plan) or by giving a tax rebate (Democratic plan), and giving tax incentives to businesses for investments in new facilities and equipment. Bush's plan also would accelerate the planned reduction in taxes for dual-earner married couples, reduce taxes on dividends earned on stock investments, and create "re-employment" accounts that would financially assist unemployed Americans while they look for a job, and also reward them if they find a job quickly.

Among six of the policies being considered, the poll finds the largest percentage of Americans, 86%, in favor of expanding tax credits for families with children. Nearly as many, 80%, express support for reducing the additional taxes married couples pay when both spouses work. Roughly two in three Americans support each of the following proposals: extending unemployment benefits to people who saw their payments expire in December (66%), making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately (65%), and passing new tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment (65%).

Of the six proposals tested, the fewest Americans, 58%, favor reducing taxes people pay on dividends they get from stocks they own.

2003 Jan 3-5	Favor	Oppose
	%	%
Expanding the tax credits for families with children	86	12
Reducing additional taxes married couples must pay when both the husband/wife work	80	18
Allowing unemployed people to continue to receive benefits that ended in December	66	31
Making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately	65	32
Passing new tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment	65	31
Reducing the taxes people pay on dividends they get from stocks they own	58	37

Self-identified Republicans and Democrats strongly favor a larger tax credit for families with children, and a reduction in the so-called "marriage tax penalty." However, Democrats are much more likely to support an extension of unemployment benefits (77%) than are Republicans (55%), and Republicans (73%) express a higher level of support for new business investment tax credits than do Democrats (57%). And while some Democratic lawmakers have expressed opposition to the president's proposal to reduce taxes on stock dividends, a majority of Democrats in the poll (52%) say they are in favor of the proposal (although a significantly higher 67% of Republicans favor this proposal).

Most Believe Child Tax Credits Will Benefit Economy

Generally speaking, most Americans believe the six economic proposals addressed in the poll will help the economy, but more people say that about expanding tax credits for families with children (70%) than about any of the other proposals. Smaller majorities express the same positive views about reducing the "marriage penalty" (64%), passing tax cuts for business investment (60%), and implementing next year's tax cuts this year (58%). Half of Americans believe that reducing taxes on stock dividends will be beneficial to the economy, but the public is less optimistic about the effect of extending unemployment benefits -- 41% say it will help, 23% say it will not make much difference, and 33% say it will hurt the economy.

For each of the following, please say whether you think it will mostly – [ROTATED: help the economy, hurt the economy], or do you think it will not make much difference?

	Help	No Difference	Hurt
	%	%	%
Expanding child tax credits	70	20	8
Reducing additional taxes married couples must pay	64	23	11
Tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment	60	22	16
Making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately	58	18	20
Reducing the taxes on stock dividends	50	28	19
Extending unemployment benefits	41	23	33

Accelerated Tax Cuts Seen as Most Helpful to Families

The rank order of economic proposals is slightly different when Americans rate the impact the proposals will have on their families. On this basis, speeding up next year's tax cuts ranks number one, with 65% of the public saying it will help their family. A majority also says that expanding tax credits for families with children (58%) and reducing the additional taxes married couples must pay (56%) will be personally beneficial to them.

As seen in the survey results, the other proposals will probably have little direct impact on the financial situation of most American families. Only about four in 10 say that passing new business tax cuts and reducing the taxes people pay on stock dividends will help their family, and only 23% of Americans say allowing unemployed people to continue to receive benefits will help their family.

For each of the following, please say whether you think it will mostly – [ROTATED: help you and your family, hurt you and your family], or do you think it will not make much difference?

	Help	No Difference	Hurt
	%	%	%
Making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately	65	23	9
Expanding child tax credits	58	37	4
Reducing additional taxes married couples must pay	56	37	6
Tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment	39	51	9
Reducing the taxes on stock dividends	38	49	11
Extending unemployment benefits	23	59	16

Americans' perceptions of how beneficial the proposals will be to themselves and their families are related to their current economic situations. Specifically, by a 46% to 26% margin, higher income Americans (those whose household incomes are $50,000 or greater) are more likely to say they will be helped by reducing taxes on stock dividends than are lower income Americans (those whose household incomes are less than $30,000). A similar gap exists with the "marriage penalty," where 65% of higher income Americans say it would help their family, compared with 45% of lower income Americans. Conversely, many more lower income Americans (37%) than higher income Americans (14%) believe an extension of unemployment benefits would benefit their family. More than six in 10 members of both groups believe the accelerated tax cuts will help their family.

Expected Benefit to Family of Economic Proposals:
by Income Level

Jan 3-5, 2003

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, 18 years and older, conducted January 3-5, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Based on what you have heard or read, please say whether you favor or oppose each of the following economic proposals. How about – [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	65%	32	3

B. Reducing the taxes people pay on dividends they get from stocks they own

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	58%	37	5

C. Expanding the tax credits for families with children

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	86%	12	2

D. Reducing the additional taxes married couples must pay when both the husband and wife work

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	80%	18	2

E. Allowing unemployed people to continue to receive benefits that ended in December

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	66%	31	3

F. Passing new tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment

	Favor	Oppose	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	65%	31	4

For each of the following, please say whether you think it will mostly – [ROTATED: help the economy, hurt the economy], or do you think it will not make much difference?

BASED ON –487—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A

A. Making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	58%	20	18	4

B. Reducing the taxes people pay on dividends they get from stocks they own

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	50%	19	28	3

C. Expanding the tax credits for families with children

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	70%	8	20	2

D. Reducing the additional taxes married couples must pay when both the husband and wife work

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	64%	11	23	2

E. Allowing unemployed people to continue to receive benefits that ended in December

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	41%	33	23	3

F. Passing new tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	60%	16	22	2

For each of the following, please say whether you think it will mostly – [ROTATED: help you and your family, hurt you and your family], or do you think it will not make much difference?

BASED ON –513—NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B

A. Making the tax cuts scheduled for next year take effect immediately

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	65%	9	23	3

B. Reducing the taxes people pay on dividends they get from stocks they own

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	38%	11	49	2

C. Expanding the tax credits for families with children

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	58%	4	37	1

D. Reducing the additional taxes married couples must pay when both the husband and wife work

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	56%	6	37	1

E. Allowing unemployed people to continue to receive benefits that ended in December

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	23%	16	59	2

F. Passing new tax cuts for businesses that invest in new facilities and equipment

	Help	Hurt	Not make much difference	No opinion
2003 Jan 3-5	39%	9	51	1

Do you think George W. Bush's policies -- favor the rich, favor the poor, favor the middle class, or are generally fair to all groups?

	Favor rich	Favor poor	Favor middle class	Fair to all	No opinion
George W. Bush
2003 Jan 3-5	51%	*	5	41	3
2002 Jul 26-28	48%	*	7	41	4
George H.W. Bush
1992 Sep 11-15	61%	1	6	27	5
1992 Jan 3-6	63%	*	6	27	4
1992 WORDING: Do you think George Bush's policies favor the rich, favor the poor, favor the middle class, or are generally fair to all groups?

* -- Less than 0.5%

[chance33_98]

Most anything with the word 'stimulus' in it gets my vote :)

[BenLurkin]

"The role of government is not to manage or to control the economy from Washington, D.C., but to remove obstacles standing in the way for faster economic growth "

These words should be cast upon ten thousand brass plaques, and they in turn should be bolted next to the entrance to every Federal building in the United States.

[Texasforever]

51% say the Bush policy favors the "rich" but 60 to 80% say the policy is good for them in one way or the other. I sense a disconnect in that outcome.

[Vigilanteman]

Conspiciously absent was one question worth asking:

Do you favor reducing illegal immigration and/or encouraging businesses to redirect their investment from hostile countries like China to Latin American countries as a means of stimulating the economy, particularly for those on the lower end of it?

[EGPWS]

"The role of government is not to manage or to control the economy from Washington, D.C., but to remove obstacles standing in the way for faster economic growth " These words should be cast upon ten thousand brass plaques, and they in turn should be bolted next to the entrance to every Federal building in the United States.

And ALL schools and universities!
Well said "BenLurkin" it's a philosophy about government that has been long forgotten.