Posted on 12/15/2002 3:23:33 AM PST by Clive
Harare -- Zimbabwe's economy has declined precipitously in recent weeks, bringing severe shortages of food and fuel and dramatically increasing the desperation of the already beleaguered population.
Kilometre-long queues of cars, buses and trucks snake through Harare, Bulawayo and other cities, often forcing traffic to a halt. Thousands queue for maize meal, the country's staple food, and other basic items such as bread, rice, cooking oil, sugar, beef, chicken and salt. The grim faces of those in the queues show people who are hungry and worried about how to feed their families.
The famine affecting more than half of Zimbabwe's 13 million people has now spread to the cities. Nearly one million urban Zimbabweans are at risk of starvation, according to international aid organisations. The extreme hunger is largely a result of President Robert Mugabe's land seizures, which have dismantled the commercial agriculture sector without replacing it with equally productive farming.
The food and fuel shortages are harbingers of increased suffering and economic decline, according to a report to be released tomorrow by the authoritative Economist Intelligence Unit.
"We expect Zimbabwe's economy to continue contracting during the next two years, resulting in increased hardships for the population at large, industry and other productive sectors," states the unit. It says that since 1999 GDP has fallen 25%.
Zimbabweans are already struggling with annual inflation of 144% but the report forecasts inflation of 400%-500% is possible in 2003. Inflation rates in neighbouring African countries are about 5%.
The Mugabe government is taking "a calculated gamble" that the economic decline will not provoke a violent rebellion, says the report. "There is a possibility that an enraged population, particularly in the cities, will revolt. Worsening food and fuel shortages, triple-digit inflation and rising unemployment could all provide the spark leading to mass protests against the government in 2003. However, Mugabe is expected to use the army, police, war veterans and the party's vigilante youth militia to put down any uprising."
The report says the government's economic policies are "ultimately unsustainable but they can probably be continued for several years bringing ongoing economic decline.
"In addition, it is increasingly likely that even if comprehensive economic reforms were to be introduced,the country's commercial farming, mining and manufacturing sectors have now been irreparably damaged. This will hamper future economic recovery and undermine the country's long-term economic prospects."
The pressures of this scenario can be felt throughout Harare where every shop and marketplace is clogged with people trying to find food at affordable prices. Last month, two children were crushed to death when a queue for 'mealie meal' became a stampede.
"How many households can afford the traditional chicken-and-rice Christmas luncheon when a chicken costs a quarter of the monthly salary of the majority of the workforce?" asks commentator Pius Wakatama.
"Maybe such meals will be enjoyed in the homes of the politically well- connected but definitely not in the majority of homes in the sprawling townships."
Mugabe avoided specific reference to the country's battered economy and fuel shortage when he opened the annual congress of his ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) on Friday. Instead, he made scapegoats of the British Government and Zimbabwe's dwindling white minority, estimated at about 50 000. He warned of retaliation against whites if the Blair Government and the European Union continued their campaigns of sanctions against his regime.
"The more they work against us, the more they express their hostility against us, the more negative we shall become to their kith and kin."
Little heed was taken of Mugabe's speech in the food queues. "What does Mugabe know of our daily struggle for survival?" said a shopper who did not want to give her name for fear of retribution. "He wants us to think our sufferings are because of the whites. But we know he and his cronies are getting rich and we are the ones suffering."
Britain and America have done nothing. They continue to do nothing; yet, the seem surprised at developing conditions. A pox on both their houses.
What should they have done ?
It will end up like the DRC or some similar hell-hole.
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