Venezuelan Showdown: Chávez in Peril

CARACAS, Venezuela, Dec. 5 - President Hugo Chávez may have thought the gravest threat to his rule had passed in April, when four days of swelling protests temporarily removed him from power.

But at that time he faced a hodgepodge of opponents without a central goal. His opposition was unfocused and fractured - united not even in what it wanted or what methods to use to shorten the presidency of a mercurial leader whose left-leaning policies have antagonized opponents certain he is leading their country to ruin.

Today, on the fourth day of another general strike that is biting into even this country's cherished oil industry, Mr. Chávez faces what in some ways is a fundamentally different - and potentially more dangerous - opposition movement.

Despite simmering debates within its ranks, the opposition now is largely contained in an umbrella group known as the Democratic Coordinator. It speaks about one objective: prodding Mr. Chávez into accepting a nonbinding referendum on his rule on Feb. 2.

Though Mr. Chávez characterized his opponents even today as two-bit coup plotters, they appear more disciplined and in some ways more determined than they were just eight months ago.

"Murders, coups, insurrection are not the way out for us," said Elías Santana, an influential former newspaper columnist who runs a pro-election group. "That would take us into situations more complicated than what we now have with Chávez. So it has to be constitutional, without use of violence."

Though such a referendum would not end Mr. Chávez's four-year-old presidency, opponents believe it would prove such a humiliating slap to the president that he would be forced to resign. If he does not, they say, they are prepared to push the government to call early presidential elections.

The singular purpose - at least publicly - came after a bitter debate in September among the 35 political parties, social organizations, business groups and unions that form the Coordinator, said high-ranking members of parties in the group. That led to an October protest where banners proclaimed the new message: "Elecciones ya!," or "Elections now!"

It still remains unclear, if there were an election, how well the Democratic Coordinator would do. It has no one leader and, indeed, there is no one among the opposition's many leaders who have captured the imagination of average Venezuelans.

Polls show that Mr. Chávez still has nearly 30 percent support in this country, higher than that of several Latin American leaders. Although 67 percent say that they have "little" or "no" confidence in Mr Chávez, a former army paratrooper, polls also show that he would sweep to victory against some of the best-known leaders in the opposition.

That lack of leadership and the failure to put forward a real alternative to Mr. Chávez are the opposition's fundamental weaknesses. The only message it has sent out is that Chávez must be removed, albeit through constitutional means. The lack of a clear leader, political analysts say, also poses risks in a country where huge street protests always seem on the edge of turning violent.

In April's demonstrations, at least 19 Venezuelans were killed when gunmen opened fire, at least some of them pro-Chávez militants.

"This just shows the need for people with political experience," said Michael Shifter, who closely follows Venezuela for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy-analysis group. "It's terrific to have civil society mobilized, but this is the time when you need political institutions and effective politicians."

Indeed, the lack of a clear leadership means that Coordinator members have often sought leadership outside the group. When dissident military officers commandeered a plaza in affluent Altamira, calling for Mr. Chávez's resignation, some members of the Coordinator saw them as prospective leaders in a new frontal assault on Mr. Chávez.

"There were some in Altamira who sold them the idea of a fast way out, and the fast way out is the military pronouncing itself," said Carlos Hermoso, a leader in Bandera Roja, a former guerrilla group that is represented in the Coordinator.

In the end, the Coordinator decided not to ally itself with the generals and colonels in Altamira. But the episode demonstrated how some members of the umbrella group were willing to use any means necessary to remove Mr. Chávez.

Part of the problem, say political analysts and some opposition members, is that the group is heavily influenced by shifting political winds. Several members, including Carlos Ortega, the labor leader, and Carlos Fernández, president of the country's largest business federation, are seen as possible presidential candidates.

The involvement of state oil company executives also complicates matters since they want as much pressure on the government as possible to improve their position in negotiating management changes.

Indeed, top leaders of two political parties represented in the Democratic Coordinator said the group buckled to political pressure Wednesday night when it did not call off the strike after government negotiators signaled that a nonbinding referendum was possible. Mr. Chávez had insisted that he would oppose an early referendum, saying that the opposition would have to wait until August, halfway through his term, for a binding referendum, as permitted by the Constitution.

But after National Guard troops broke up an anti-Chávez protest on Tuesday with tear gas, furious leaders pressed on with the strike. "That debilitated the moderates profoundly, so they were obligated at that point to continue the strike," said one of the party leaders.

Today, strike organizers took to the microphones again, saying that the strike would be extended at least through Friday and that they wanted a more concrete commitment from Mr. Chávez about an early referendum. Some leaders even said that a nonbinding referendum was not enough and that only an early general election would do.

The danger now, said political analysts and members of the Coordinator, is that the people in the street could slip out of control and clash with anti-Chávez adherents itching for a battle.

"That means people all over the street, with the capacity of the Coordinator to lead debilitated," said one official in the Coordinator. "Putting people in the street makes it difficult to control the situation."

Chavez - AP story***Demonstrations by both sides of Venezuela's political conflict had police worried of increased violence after gunmen opened fire Friday night into a plaza crowded with opposition demonstrators. Besides the three deaths, 28 people were wounded.

The killings caused the opposition - until now seeking only a referendum on Chavez's 4-year-old government - to demand his resignation.

Leaders declared three days of mourning, calling for nationwide protests and the extension of a general strike that has already shut down Venezuela's giant oil industry. Oil exports account for 30 percent of Venezuela's gross domestic product and half of government revenue.

Police patrols in Caracas were drastically cut a month ago when Chavez seized control of the city force. Citing the threat of violence, the U.S. State Department on Saturday urged Americans not to travel to Venezuela.***

President Hugo Chavez appeals for calm Saturday. He denied he was behind shootings at an opposition rally Friday that killed 3 people. (MARCELO HERNANDEZ/ASSOCIATED PRESS) December 7, 2002

Foes toughen stance; Chavez seizes tanker ***The social tensions in this impoverished country -- which experienced 30 percent inflation during the past year and has 16 percent unemployment -- have been strained for some time. Chavez's critics say he has exploited the situation to plunge the country into a class war. He has told the country's poor that they have been marginalized in the past and credited his supporters for "waking up" so they could be free as they fight for a better future.***

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

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