RCP Predicts Terrell Victory in Louisiana Senate Race

RCP ^ | 12/5/2002 | RCP

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

It looks like the Republicans are poised to finish off the 2002 election by picking up one more Democratic Senate seat for a total pickup of three seats. While the two most recent polls (independent polls) both show Landrieu ahead by one and two points, we think Terrell is well positioned for victory this Saturday.

The most recent poll by Mason-Dixon, taken Monday and Tuesday of this week, shows an eight point bump for Terrell on Tuesday. The 378 voters questioned Monday night supported Landrieu 48%-43%, but the 247 people interviewed Tuesday night supported Terrell 49%-46%. Not coincidentally President Bush was in Louisiana on Tuesday campaigning and raising money for Terrell. Landrieu was in trouble before the President's appearance this week, but we think the bump from the President will probably be the final nail in Landrieu's coffin.

The two factors that could still work to produce a a Landrieu victory is her support in the white community which appears to be pretty solid for a southern, non-conservative Democrat. The University of New Orleans poll had Terrell ahead 58%-31% among white voters. President Bush carried white voters in Louisiana 72%-26% in 2000 and we think Terrell will need close to 65% of the white vote in this election, assuming a "normal" black turnout to win. The other positive for the Landrieu campaign is the assistance of Donna Brazille in get out the vote efforts in the African-American community. If Landrieu can get over one-third of the white vote and she can get a decent turnout in the black community, 25% or higher of total voters, she has a chance to squeak by with a narrow win.

Abortion has become an issue in this race and contrary to typical press wisdom the issue is working to hurt the pro-choice candidate Landrieu with the very white Democratic voters she needs to have in order to win. So like so many of the other races this cycle, this one will come down to turnout. Working to help turnout for the Republicans is the House race in the fifth congressional district where the Republican Lee Fletcher is expected to win. Given the recent history, just last month, in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and the other southern states we see little reason to anticipate a Democratic upside surprise regarding turnout on election day. With the President's visit still fresh in the voters minds we think Terrell pulls out another big win for the GOP. Terrell 52% - Landrieu 47%. (12/5)

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

While the media establishment and many Freepers were screaming defeat for the GOP for the Mid-terms, RCP correctly predicted we would pick up 2 Senate Seats. If RCP calls this one correctly, Louisiana will have it's first Republican Senator, EVER!. Icing on the cake, yummy.

[TSgt]

Call me stupid...When is the runoff/election redux?

[DM1]

i hope that you are correct

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

Saturday

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

this isn't me, it's RealClearPolitics.com

[A Vast RightWing Conspirator]

Landrieu was in trouble before the President's appearance this week, but we think the bump from the President will probably be the final nail in Landrieu's coffin.

Call Sen. Daschlkel and Bill Clinton IMMEDIATELY. This is the OFFICIAL proof that the GOP are planning to mass assassinate the Democrats. Apparently 'the President' is the designated 'hit man' in Landrieu's case.

[ewing]

Good news, those Mason Dixon Tuesday numbers (after the Bush visit with Terrell +03) go right along with the GOP internals.

I am still sticking to 53% for Terrell or higher.

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

LOL

[TSgt]

Thanks! Saturday will be a lot of fun. This election and Saddam's WMD declaration all in one day!

Wait...My military weekend is this weekend. Darn! Guess I'll have to wait until I get home in the evening!

[F.J. Mitchell]

Let's not start counting our chickens until sometime in the Wee hours of Sunday morning Dec 11. This race isn't over til the fat gal sings, and all the dead are returned to the grave yard, the illegal aliens back into their safe houses , yellow dogs are back in the kennels and the last dirty trick of the DemonRATS has bee excercised and failed.

[uncbob]

Let's not start counting our chickens until sometime in the Wee hours of Sunday morning Dec 11. This race isn't over til the fat gal sings, and all the dead are returned to the grave yard, the illegal aliens back into their safe houses , yellow dogs are back in the kennels and the last dirty trick of the DemonRATS has bee excercised and failed.

Correct
Remember Bush had a good lead on Gore in the polls

[Mamzelle]

Yes, but be encouraged...there's a Republican governor of Maryland. I never thought there could be.

[rwfromkansas]

bump

[Redbob]

Sorry, but Terrell won't be "the first Republican ever" to represent Louisiana in the U.S. Senate: there are at least two who will precede her:

John Spafford Harris (1825 - 1906) served from July 8, 1868, and Wm. Pitt Kellogg (1830 - 1918) served from July 9, 1868.

Of course, there's a fair chance that both these Yankees were Carpetbaggers, but that's what we 'Pubbies are, the party of Carpetbaggers and Abe Lincoln...

[TonyInOhio]

Let's not start counting our chickens until sometime in the Wee hours of Sunday morning Dec 11

The next Sunday, December 11th is in 2005. Damn the torpedoes, I'm counting my chickens before then.

Tony

[hresources]

I was traveling through LA on Tuesday when President Bush came to help. You can't believe the non-stop media advertising going on down there and it is obvious that Terrell is getting the best of it. They had VP Cheney on talk shows. Visiting GOP Senators and Governors. Saw a Billboard welcoming President Bush in Shreveport. Landrieu isn't ven getting some of the Black Leadership support. I think Terrell big. Traditional Dem. New Orleans and Baton Rouge aren't going to show in big numbers for a Saturday vote. Too bad LSU isn't playing(It would be worse for Dems.).

[WoofDog123]

That is a good point; generally the media correctly manages to use the phrase "first republican [insert office here] since reconstruction," but I guess with degrading history education, 'ever' has apparently equivalent meaning.

[F.J. Mitchell]

Bump!

[F.J. Mitchell]

That's a giant step in the right direction. No pun intended.

[F.J. Mitchell]

"I'm counting my chickens before then."

Okay, but if crows hatch out of those eggs; enjoy. I believe Morgan David 20/20 is the proper wine with crow-lots of it.