Posted on 11/19/2002 8:54:10 AM PST by governsleastgovernsbest
Landrieu tries a makeover; but Republicans are out for blood
11/18/02 By John Hill, Business Report columnist
What a political show we have to watch: A good, old-fashioned Louisiana showdown election, so tight that it can go either way. That's what we've got on our hands, now that the Nov. 5 primary shoved incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu down from front-runner to even-money in a classic Bayou State political game of evenly matched teams.
Landrieu finished a strong first in a field of nine, but that 46 percent didn't look so good when you added up the vote of her runoff opponent,
Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, 27 percent, and the two other Republicans, U. S. Rep. John Cooksey of Monroe, 14 percent, and state Rep. Tony Perkins, R-Baton Rouge, 10 percent. That's a 51 percent Republican vote against Landrieu's 46 percent and the 2 percent that went to another Democrat, the Rev. Raymond Brown, D-New Orleans.
So what's Landrieu to do?
Reorganize.
Within hours of her disappointing miss of a first-primary win, Landrieu fired her media consultant, former Louisianan Raymond Strother of Washington, D.C., one of the nation's leading Democratic directors of media campaigns. Strother helped put Landrieu in the Senate in 1996. He put John Breaux there in 1986. It was Strother who created former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart as a major presidential contender for 1984 until the nation's media parked outside the Washington townhouse where he was enjoying a little extramarital play.
Also fired: campaign manager Donna Simmons, who had worked with Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, and Ellen Boggard, a Washington-based Democratic operative who had been Landrieu's field and communications director.
The new TV guy, Karl Strobel of Washington, D.C., is fresh off Democratic against-the-tide victories in Arkansas and South Dakota. His spots, highlighting the pork projects Landrieu has brought home over the past six years, are already running.
Landrieu tapped many of her Washington staff to come down and help, most notably Norma Jane Sabistan, Landrieu's top U. S. Senate administrative assistant, as manager, a job she held in 1996. Sabistan had been a top state administrator to U. S. Sen. John Breaux, D-Crowley. Boggard will not be replaced, said Rich Masters, who is Landrieu's director of policy and communications. Masters will remain in Louisiana for the duration.
In other words, Landrieu's campaign underwent a major overhaul within a week. Even at Landrieu's launch of a bus tour at the Old State Capitol, Democrats looked grim. "I wish we could stop this momentum from going one way," said one long-time Landrieu supporter, acknowledging what people are feeling.
Republicans smell blood.
There was a poll - the data will not be released because the GOP doesn't want Democrats to know about it - by Terrell's pollster, Verne Kennedy of Marketing Research Institute of Pensacola, Fla., who works mostly for Republicans.
Taken the Thursday through Saturday after the primary of 665 voters who voted in the Nov. 5 primary and who said they would likely vote in the Dec. 7 runoff, Terrell was ahead. "Not by much, but she was ahead," said Kennedy shortly before jetting off to Washington to brief the White House and national Republicans. The runoff voters on Dec. 7 "will be a very Republican crowd," Kennedy added.
Next, here comes the national Republican Party parade to Louisiana.
First is Vice President Dick Cheney who heads today to two key Terrell areas: Monroe and Lafayette.
It is no accident the Republicans chose those television markets. Monroe because that's where most of Cooksey's votes came from. And Lafayette for two reasons. First, it's the home base of Republican Gov. Mike Foster and a very strong Republican area of the state. Then there is that strong French Cajun population that New Orleans political scientist Ed Renwick said is critical to Landrieu.
What are the Democrats and Landrieu to do?
They've got a tight wire to walk: get the African-American voters turned on and turned out on election day and somehow still appeal to whites as someone who is supportive of Bush.
To energize African-American leaders, there was consideration about bringing in Bill Clinton, who, as political scientist Pearson Cross of Monroe says is the most popular president with African-Americans in all of history. But bringing in Clinton carries a major risk of energizing the white anti-Clinton, anti-Bill, anti-Hillary voters.
"I'd hate to have to make that decision," said Renwick.
This is going to be a great Louisiana political show, with a last-second ending just as exciting as that LSU-Kentucky "Hail Mary" pass.
John Hill, Capitol reporter, can be reached by e-mail at TalktoJHill@aol.com, or by postal service at P.O. Box 44337, Capitol Station, Baton Rouge, LA 70804.
I've also read another article describing real disarray and infighting in the Landrieu campaign, as she fired a number of advisors after failing to get to the magic 50% mark on November 5.
Sigh. "Lincoln? Who's that?"
Coming in a close second was Lincoln, who actually did something for them. (Ducking from the neo-confederate cannon fire).
I sure hope horseface looks better from the neck down. Gaaaacckk!
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