Posted on 11/09/2002 10:21:03 PM PST by kattracks
President George Bush has accelerated planning for a massive military attack against Iraq amid White House fears that Saddam Hussein will defy last Friday's UN resolution commanding him to disarm.According to US sources, quoted in today's New York Times, Bush and his senior officials have approved an outline plan for the removal from power of Saddam even as other members of the Security Council - notably Russia - declared that Resolution 1441 had averted the threat of a US-led war against Iraq.
The plan - final details of which were approved by Bush well before the Security Council's vote on Friday to disarm Iraq - envisages a land attack on Iraq by upwards of 200,000 troops, up to 20,000 of them British. The Britons are likely to get provisional deployment orders next week.
The plan envisages four US divisions plus one UK armoured division and planners are working around two attack dates, one for early January and a second for late February. The British force will include the 7th Armoured Brigade - the Desert Rats - and up to 200 Challenger tanks, as well as elements of the SAS.
The plan foresees an air phase of the campaign - designed to soften up Iraqi air defences, communications and headquarters - considerably shorter than the bombing campaign that opened the last Gulf War.
American and allied forces would quickly grab footholds within Iraq, a prelude to a widening rolling campaign that US planners envisage would 'isolate' the leadership within rapidly tightening pockets.
Military commanders believe that the recent sharp increase in bombing of Iraqi targets - which has seen missions in the northern and southern no fly zones increase by upwards of 40 per cent - has already softened up anti-aircraft and anti-shipping missile facilities and command posts to the degree that troops could quickly force their way deep into Iraq.
The plan calls for the quick capture of land which would be used as bases to funnel American forces deeper into the country. That approach is intended to relieve some of the diplomatic pressure created by massing troops and initiating attacks from neighbouring countries, including Saudi Arabia.
As the Pentagon puts the finishing touches to the plan, White House and State Department officials are discussing what one senior official called a 'seamless transition' from attack to a military occupation of parts of the country.
It would include efforts to deliver food to Iraqis and engage them quickly in planning for economic development and eventual democracy in areas that Saddam has terrorised.
Disclosure of the plans follows claims by senior British and US officials that both Bush and Tony Blair privately regard war against Saddam as inevitable.
British sources believe that although he will almost certainly 'agree' to the UN resolution, the advice that he is receiving from both pragmatists and hardliners within his regime are ultimately aimed at hiding his programmes for weapons of mass destruction from UN scrutiny.
However deep splits began to emerge yesterday over the precise mandate given by the Security Council to the effort to disarm Saddam.
Senior US have officials made it clear that the language of the resolution gave Washington a legal basis to go to war unilaterally if the Security Council could not agree on how to respond to further violations by Baghdad.
Despite being hailed as an historic agreement, in the hours after it was passed by a unanimous vote Bush admonished the Security Council not to 'lapse into unproductive debates over whether specific instances of Iraqi non-compliance are serious'.
The most hawkish members of the administration - including Vice-President Dick Cheney and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - are understood to be urging the President to act at the first sign of Iraqi non-compliance, rather than wait months while Saddam spins out an inspections crisis through the winter.
They anticipate that Iraq may fall at the first hurdle by failing to deliver a complete inventory of his programmes for weapons of mass destruction, triggering an attack.
Iraq is expected to give its formal reply to the resolution within a few days.
Although Saddam is expected to agree to accept the new resolution, diplomats say the test will be in his willingness to make full disclosure of, and grant access to, his contested weapons sites.
In comments designed to irritate hardliners in the Bush administration, Iraq's Foreign Minister, Naji Sabri, praised the Security Council for 'thwarting' American attempts to use it as a cover to attack Iraq.
Interesting that the New York Times has a tie-line to the Pentagon.
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