Maryland Gov. Race: Polls Good for Ehrlich, Dem. Party Disenfranchises GOP Absentee Voters

All recent polls seem to be trending towards an election victory for Republican Robert Ehrlich in the Maryland Governor's race.

"The Maryland Poll - conducted for The Sun and The Gazette newspapers - found the Baltimore County congressman ahead of the lieutenant governor 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in Tuesday's election, with 8 percent undecided."

This is excellent news that even the most optimistic Republicans would not have imagined 6 months ago. Get excited, but don't let these positive numbers make you complacent.

Remember, the Maryland Democratic Party has a history of snatching victory at the last minute, through dirty-tricks, race baiting, and voting fraud. This year, it looks like they are trying to one-up themselves.

Fox News reports: As many as 9,000 Republican voters have been forced to reapply for absentee ballots because the pre-printed applications sent by the state party did not meet Maryland state Board of Elections requirements, according to the Maryland Republican Party.

The decision to deny the applications was made Oct. 18 by Maryland Attorney General J. Joseph Curran Jr., a Democrat, who Republicans have accused of trying to influence next Tuesday's election.

"If that isn't stepping into the middle of people's right to vote, I don't know what is," said Louis Pope, Maryland GOP vice-chairman.

"Before that piece was ever sent out it was checked by several attorneys," he said. "The attorney general's office decided they didn't want us to send out pre-printed applications."

If the Attorney General was a Republican trying to pull a stunt like this on Democrats, this would be all over the national news on the networks and the subject of civil rights lawsuits.... and had you heard about this before reading this post?

Of course, the Dem. machine is also employing some tried and true last minute sheeple inundation tactics.

They have hundreds of paid and unpaid volunteers flooding voters with phone calls and door-to-door literature drops. In Baltimore City and Prince George's County, they have even established protocol: Each African-American household is slated to receive about 4 phone calls, at least 1 of which is from a live caller rather than a recorded message. These potential voters are also being inundated with direct mail full of outright lies, distortions, and half-truths about Bob Ehrlich's record.

And we all know how Election Day works. Maryland Democrats have uncanny success achieving high turnout when they need it most. Sometimes this turnout even exceeds 100%. And who wouldn't have that kind of turnout, with such a captive constituency. Illegal aliens, the dead, and even pets are consistent Democratic voters. Unfortunately, African-Americans aren't far behind. The Baltimore Sun poll shows them supporting Townsend over Ehrlich 82% to 6%.

NEWS4 Poll: Race Gets Tighter For Md. Gubernatorial Candidates
One More Week Until The General Elections

POSTED: 6:13 p.m. EST October 30, 2002

WASHINGTON -- The two gubernatorial candidates in Maryland are working hard to get out the vote just one week before the general elections, NEWS4 reports. The latest NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows Maryland Republican gubernatorial candidate Rep. Bob Ehrlich is once again leading Democrat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. And, voter turn out could be a key in the campaign's final days, NEWS4 reports.

The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday shows Ehrlich taking a one percentage point lead over Townsend. It has been a back-and-forth battle, but Ehrlich currently has 47 percent to Townsend's 46 percent.

Last month, it was Townsend who was ahead by one point. But, with a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, the race continues to be a dead heat.

Dr. Sandra O'Connor, a professor of government at American University, talked to NEWS4 about the campaign landscape. "Everyone wants to be the person with momentum going into the election the weekend before," she said.

NEWS4 reports Townsend has an overwhelming lead in Baltimore city, and is well ahead of her opponent in the Washington suburbs -- Montgomery and Prince George's counties.

But, Ehrlich is expected to win every other region of the state. The NEWS4/Mason-Dixon poll shows him leading in Baltimore County, the central Maryland suburbs, the eastern shore and western Maryland. (See map, at left.)

Larry Harris, who is with Mason-Dixon polls, spoke with NEWS4 about the campaigns, and how they've progressed.

"He's been running pretty much a mistake-free campaign. He seems to have been able to successfully blunt the charges of being a right-wing Republican, or, the Democratic party would say, he's been able to disguise his record," Harris said.

Ehrlich is leading among males and whites, as seen below.
Male voters

Ehrlich, 55 percent
Townsend, 42 percent

White voters

Ehrlich, 58 percent
Townsend, 34 percent

But, NEWS4 reports Townsend has the overwhelming lead among African-Americans and women, as seen below.
African-American voters

Townsend, 86 percent
Ehrlich, 9 percent

Women voters
Townsend, 51 percent
Ehrlich, 39 percent

Analysts say voter turnout will be a major factor in determining who will become Maryland's next governor.

O'Connor told NEWS4 a low turnout could cost Townsend the election.

"She's got to get voters out in traditionally African-American neighborhoods, she's running very strongly with African-American voters. And, she's running very strongly with women voters. So, she has to make certain that those two groups, and people who are very concerned about gun control, hear her message and get out and vote," she said.

O'Connor says the weekend before the election is always important, but this year takes on special significance. She says many voters in the Washington-area haven't been tuned into politics because of the sniper killings. She says a lot of decisions could be made this weekend, and both parities are making an extraordinary effort to get out the vote.

Harris said if Ehrlich can cut into Townsend's base -- just a little -- then he'll be the one headed to Annapolis.

"He's only gotta make a smidgen of difference. The race is so close at this point, he's doing what he's got to do in this state for a Republican to get elected. And, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is not doing what a Democrat has to do in Baltimore city, Prince George's County and even in progressive Montgomery County," he said.

I believe that, unless Ehrlich is found in bed with a young boy or a dead girl, he is going to win this thing. I also believe that the polls don't show his real strength. I think that there are many blacks, and possibly many DemocRATs, who are not willing to admit to pollsters that they are going to vote for a Republican.

The Sun poll shows Ehrlich with a 4% lead. I suspect that it's more like 8%.

On Monday, Frank DeFillipo, the resident Yellow Dog Democrat on Ron Smiths radio program on Mondays at 5 PM, said that the Baltimore Sun's editorial board was "split right down the middle" on who to endorse. That's absolutely unheard of.

A very knowledgeable caller also said that he had not seen the enthusiasm in Baltimore that he was accustomed to and that Atty. Gen Ashcroft was taking a careful look at "political activists" (read DemocRATs) filling out absentee ballots at nursing homes in Maryland. He cautioned the "Activity Directors" at nursing homes that they might be facing a grand jury.

The undecideds are breaking for Ehrlich, a trend I expect to see continue. Anyone who has decided to hold their nose and vote for Townsend is already in her camp.

I saw a new Ehrlich TV ad today that was great. And he had a fantastic two-page ad in the Washington Post that I think will win over many of the undecideds in the Wasington suburbs. He is going positive at the end, which means he thinks he is winning - meanwhile, I am not seeing any positive Townsend ads at all.

There is little enthusiasm among the Rats for any of the down-ticket races this year, either. Republicans are turning out for Connie Morella in Montgomery ounty and Helen Bentley in Baltomore County as well. If the Rats have to drag in Clinton, you know they are worried about turnout.

I really feel much more positive about this race than I did in 1994 with Sauerbrey.

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