Posted on 10/13/2002 6:16:27 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
There are no coincidences in politics, which is why two major developments last week in the 17th District Congressional race should be viewed with a conspiratorial eye. On Monday, the Traficant for Congress Committee bought more than $20,000 worth of television air time for 30-second commercials. They are scheduled to start airing on all three local stations Oct. 28.
James A. Traficant Jr., the former Dem-ocratic congressman-turned-federal prisoner, is on the November general election ballot as an independent — even though he was expelled from the U.S. House of Representatives after being convicted in April in U.S. District Court in Cleveland on 10 criminal charges, including racketeering, bribery and tax evasion. Traficant was sentenced July 30 to eight years and is now a resident of the Federal Correctional Institution at Allenwood in White Deer, Pa.
The television buys were made despite the fact that Traficant has been out of the Mahoning Valley's sight for almost three months and has not been able to participate in any of the candidate forums. A poll by the National Democratic Congressional Committee showed him trailing Democrat Tim Ryan, a state senator from Niles, and Republican Ann Womer Benjamin, a state representative from Aurora.
Outcome
Thus the question: Does Traficant really believe he can win this election? His supporters might be willing to stick their necks out and say he can, but you certainly won't hear the former congressman, whose political instincts enabled him to dominate the region's politics for more than two decades, making such a prediction.
Why, then, is Traficant in the race and even taking to the airwaves?
The answer may lie with the second major development last week. On Tuesday morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee began airing a commercial that focused on Ryan's criminal record from when he was in college, his opposition to a sexual predatory bill and his failure to abide by federal campaign finance laws. The hard-hitting spot caught Ryan flat-footed, and his initial reaction amounted to his whining about Womer Benjamin's negative campaigning.
On Thursday, Ryan aired a commercial that again accused the Republican of going negative. The Democrat's message was this: I want to talk about the issues and what's important to the 17th District, while she wants to talk about things that happened years ago when I was a college student.
But the GOP commercial, which urges voters to "tell Ryan to grow up," ignited the race, which had been plodding along. Suddenly there were charges and countercharges and in the middle of the firefight Womer Benjamin aired a spot that showed Valley residents who identified themselves as Democrats touting her candidacy.
The negative-positive combination is obviously designed to not only remind voters of Ryan's background, but to show that the Republican is striking a responsive chord with some Democrats.
The goal of the Womer Benjamin camp is to raise doubts about Ryan's ability to serve as congressman, so that Democrats who are thinking about supporting him will have second thoughts. What option would they then have: either to ignore the congressional race, or to cast their vote for Traficant, knowing he can't win.
Payback time
Either way, the Republican candidate benefits. Why would Traficant want to see Womer Benjamin win? Because it's payback time. Remember that the investigation into Traficant's tenure in Congress began when Democrat Bill Clinton was in the White House and Janet Reno was the attorney general.
Reno had to have given her blessing for the U.S. attorney's office in Cleveland to go after the then congressman. And it was the Democratic leadership in the House, starting with Minority Leader Richard Gephardt, that pushed for his expulsion.
Traficant had become persona non grata with the Democratic caucus in the House because he had supported Republican Dennis Hastert for speaker, and so Gephardt and his lieutenants were determined to bring his 17-year tenure to an end.
The Democrats in the House got their way when Traficant was expelled, but now they must consider the possibility that he may have the last laugh.
If in the next two weeks, Womer Benjamin's poll numbers rise to where they are within the margin of error, thus making the race a dead heat, watch for the national Republican Party to pull out all the stops and commit $100,000 or more for an advertising blitz — and perhaps a visit to the district by the vice president.
Is this guy nuts? How could anybody in public office oppose a sexual predatory bill? Anybody out there know something about this candidate, Ryan?
There was some wheeling and dealing in the Ohio redictricting situation. The Democrats and the media wanted the districts drawn so Trafficant could not win no matter what. That was done.
Ohio lost one seat. The gerrymandering was such that all the remaining Democrats and Repubicans except Trafficant got safer districts, and the democrats lost one seat. One district that had been a safe Democrat seat near Dayton, Oh. was made competitive but leaning Democrat.
The situation is, Ohio will have one less seat after 2002. The lost seat was a Democratic seat in the last congress. It was Trafficants seat. If things go well for Repubicans they might pick up a seat in west central Ohio but that is about it. Even that isnot a high probabliity.
I have not researched it, but I was told the old trafficant district was gerrymandered to be a safe Democrat seat even if Trafficant went independent and did well in his old territory. In other words this district should remain Democratic even if Trafficant takes the Youngstown vote from the Democratic candidate.
Trafficant has never learned that it is impossible to hurt either party of both are aligned against you. Both parties were and are aligned against Trafficant. I don't think he can be a spoiler. His tactic was thought of and steps were taken to prevent his from being successful over a year ago. The Democrats really wanted it and the Repubicans agreed.
He's 27, served one term in the state house. He beat Sawyer (incumbent Akron congressman in the new OH-17) in the primary, mainly because Sawyer was pro-NAFTA and from the wrong part of the district.
Could he pull enough to throw this Democrat stronghold district to the R's
Ryan (D) 52% Benjamin (R) 21% Traficant (I) 10%A Feldman Group (D) poll, conducted 9/16-18/02 for the DCCC; surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 9/23).
Bush carried the redrawn Dayton district by 8% (it now has a slug of heavily GOP Warren County as well as two GOP rural counties), and Turner (R) has a lock on the seat that Tony (Toby?) Hall vacated. It is a reasonably safe GOP seat now.
Thanks. Only 52% in a partisan poll, I'd say this is a heavy lean towards Ryan but not a lock.
FReegards...MUD
General election matchup:
Ryan 53%
Benjamin 21
Traficant 10
Davis 7
Fav/unfav ratings:
Fav/Unfav
Ryan 46%/ 13%
Benjamin 29 / 11
Generic congressional ballot
Democratic candidate 56%
Republican candidate 29
Common, it's about our Constutional Rights, not sex!!!
The answer may lie with the second major development last week. On Tuesday morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee began airing a commercial that focused on Ryan's criminal record from when he was in college, his opposition to a sexual predatory bill and his failure to abide by federal campaign finance laws. The hard-hitting spot caught Ryan flat-footed, and his initial reaction amounted to his whining about Womer Benjamin's negative campaigning.
God bless Traficant and his wife.
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