|
(Leave The Left Behind) |
||
 |
FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
|
|
|
|
||
Posted on 10/10/2002 8:51:48 AM PDT by Jean S
With Democrats expressing new concern about their chances of regaining the majority in the House, top party operatives are circulating a memo giving Democrats "strategic guidance" on selling today's vote on the Iraq resolution politically, as well as on the best way to turn the national debate back to domestic issues before the Nov. 5 election.
"To be sure, the timing of the Iraq debate has helped the Republicans or at least put off the impact of the domestic issues that favor Democrats," Democratic strategists Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Bob Shrum, all officials of the polling firm Democracy Corps, wrote in the seven-page memo dated Oct. 3 that was obtained by Roll Call.
"George W. Bush's approval remains high at 67 percent and that has helped the Republicans maintain a somewhat higher standing than the Democrats. The pervasiveness of the Iraq issues tilts the playing field toward the Republicans, making it difficult to make gains now."
Assistant to the Majority Leader Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), Greenberg's wife, circulated the document to House Democratic colleagues Oct. 4.
"Importantly, this memo provides Members with strategic guidance on effectively communicating their position regardless of whether they intend to support or oppose the resolution on the use of force,"she wrote in an attached "Dear Colleague"letter.
And in a floor speech on Wednesday, DeLauro used several of the techniques described in the memo to explain her opposition to President Bush's Iraq resolution.
The memo, largely based on a Democracy Corps poll conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, warns that Democrats' vote on Iraq and the language they use to explain it could play a decisive role in their ability to win races across the country and regain control of the House.
The poll found that a majority of voters polled would prefer to vote for a Member who supports the Iraq resolution, by a margin of 50 percent to 40 percent.
"In addition," the memo notes, "we found that a Democrat supporting a resolution runs stronger than one opposing it."
DeLauro spokeswoman Ashley Westbrook downplayed the memo's significance, calling it just one of several memos and backgrounders the office delivers to the Caucus on a daily and weekly basis.
"It's not an attempt to persuade Members whether or not they should vote for something,"said Westbrook. "It's about putting the information out there ... no offense taken if they don't use it or read it."
Greenberg, the document's primary author, also argued that the memo was not designed to recommend one position or another, but simply disseminated to provide information.
Calling the memo "religiously agnostic to providing parallel advice,"Greenberg points out that in the opening paragraph it acknowledges that Democrats will vote their conscience on the Iraq resolution.
"We are saying we know you are going to do what you think is right, but it's worth knowing what the public thinks,"he said, noting that the memo was widely disseminated to Democratic groups and was "no secret." But unlike other memos the group has produced, the more politically sensitive Iraq document could not be found on the Democracy Corps' Web site.
The extent to which the poll tries to determine the public's reactions to various Democratic positions on the war on Iraq reveals just how concerned party strategists are about the issue. At one point, the memo ranks hypothetical explanations for voting against the resolution or opposing the war in Iraq in order of effectiveness.
According to the memo, the most effective argument for Democrats who oppose the war is one which "affirms one's commitment to wage the war against terrorism, including getting rid of Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, but that questions the rush to war; it calls on the U.S. to seek U.N. and international support, others sharing costs and making sure we will achieve greater stability."
Nearly as strong, the memo argues, is explaining a no vote as a no "for now," and "stressing the need to go to the UN and try to get the inspectors back into Iraq and work to get the support of our allies."
That position, the memo notes, is strongest by far with "independents and with men (where the issue has more salience.)"
The least effective argument?
"Outright opposition to the war against Iraq and to the concept of regime change, finishing with the phrase, 'it is the wrong thing to do,' produces a weak response," they write.
Driving the point home, the memo points out that the poll found that a Democrat who opposes the war who simply argues that the policy is wrong loses by 15 points (39 percent to 54 percent) to a Republican who says he or she "trusts Bush to do this right."
The memo begins by highlighting what the strategists regard as a silver lining for Democrats: if you oppose the Iraq resolution you can still stay competitive race if you say all the right things and explain your opposition. Their memo proceeds to spell out in detail the most compelling arguments against various Republican stances on the war on Iraq.
Although the Iraq debate has dominated the national media for the past month, the Democracy Corps poll found that Democrats and Republicans are running "neck-and-neck" in the generic poll, when voters are asked simply whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or a Republican, with Democrats slightly ahead. According to the poll, 46 percent of those asked said they plan to vote for a Democrat this fall, while 44 percent said they plan to vote for Republican.
Reflecting the findings of other recent national polls, most voters (37 percent of those polled) told Democracy Corps that the economy and jobs were their primary concern, while 20 percent of those asked ranked the war on terrorism as the most important issue affecting their vote in November, behind those concerned about Social Security (23 percent), education (23 percent) and even with voters who ranked health care (20 percent) No. 1.
When discussing the Iraq debate and whether the Member supported the use-of-force resolution, Greenberg, Carville and Shrum highlight what they call "three critical caveats to understanding the current environment."
First, they contend that those who voted against the resolution can still wage a competitive race when their GOPopponent only speaks about general support for the war on terrorism and "expresses reservations in that context."
Under this scenario, however, the Democratic strategists warn against such specific arguments as focusing on the costs of waging war with Iraq or opposing Bush's stated goal of regime change, saying that both arguments are "less convincing for the public."
Their poll also found that Democrats who support the resolution are "most compelling and strongly preferred"to their GOPopponents who also supported it when they express strong reservations about how a military operation in Iraq will be conducted, as well as concern about the need for allies who will share the war's costs, the chances of the war increasing instability in the region, and the focus on Iraq distracting the nation from the war on terrorism.
"A down-the-line supporter of Iraq actually runs significantly weaker than the proponent with reservations,"they wrote. "Indeed, in order to maintain Democratic morale, it is critical that Democratic supporters of this resolution articulate about their reservations, as 34 percent of the Democrats in the country want to vote for a Democrat opposed to authorizing force."
Third, the memo said the poll found any GOP efforts to politicize the war on Iraq backfire enough to "wipe out their gains."
During the survey, Democracy Corps pollsters simulated the prospect of Republicans "politicizing" the war by reading half of respondents a statement by Bush urging voters to vote for Republicans because of their support of his effort to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and their support for strong military response to the war on terrorism. They found that that statement produces a "3-point swing toward Democrats," compared to those respondents that were not read such an "attack."
"The Republicans, in short, could easily overplay their hand if they try to carry the Iraq period into the election campaign ahead," they wrote.
The last three paragraphs of the memo discuss how eager Democrats are to dispense with the Iraq issue and move back to homefront issues, although the memo gives short shrift to just how to accomplish this task.
To move from war on Iraq to the domestic front, the memo offers just one specific suggestion. It suggests that Democrats use the statement: "We need independent people in Washington who will be a check on what is going on and pay attention to our needs at home."
That message performed well in the poll against Republicans' claims of upholding the president's efforts on national security, along with another one-liner: "Washington should be more responsive to the people and less to big corporate interests."
riiiight...
|
(Leave The Left Behind) |
||
|
|
FreeRepublic , LLC PO BOX 9771 FRESNO, CA 93794
|
|
|
|
||
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.