Posted on 07/30/2002 2:49:30 PM PDT by Stand Watch Listen
If you have not been stranded on a remote island for the last six months it should come as no surprise that congressional elections will be held Nov. 5. With a single defection having given the Democrats control of the Senate, and a narrow six-seat margin for Republicans in the House, the stakes are high.
Some political sailors are saying the winds of conventional wisdom favor an unconventional tack, claiming the historical trend favors the political party in presidential power during times of military crisis. Others contend a surge of patriotism could result in more voters heading to the polls, which might favor Democrats. As the campaigns near the 100-day mark before Election Day, concerns about foreign policy and future terrorist attacks remain high, but domestic issues also have re-emerged.
"We think our chances of regaining the majority are very good," says Jenny Backus, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee press secretary. "Overall, the rapid rate of Republican retirements in the House has given the Democrats a number of opportunities. We have very solid candidates for all of those races," she says, pointing to the recent retirement of House Republican Conference Chairman J.C. Watts of Oklahoma as a sign of "dissatisfaction with where the GOP leadership is going."
Lea Anne McBride, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, disagrees. "We are in an excellent position not only to maintain but to expand the Republican majority in the House," she contends, pointing to a "strong candidate-recruiting campaign" as one of the keys to predicted success.
In fact, the only claim Insight found to be completely off-base was the assertion by House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt of Missouri that Democrats could pick up as many as 40 seats. An aberrational CBS News/New York Times poll recently found Republicans trailing Democrats nationally by six points, but almost all the other generic congressional polls show both parties within the margin of error. Republicans put a positive focus on the fact that historically they trail in such polls, while Democrats contend that, despite President George W. Bush's high approval ratings, their party remains ahead on the "kitchen-table" issues.
"I think the events of the past six to eight weeks provided more of what we already were picking up in our polls as people worry about economic change. We are seeing a bit of that in a slight trend for Democrats in the polling," contends Al Quinlan, president of Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research Inc.
"Economic-security issues, especially in terms of the economy and jobs, are of concern. But in a more pronounced way there is worry being expressed about pensions and retirement," continues this Democratic consultant, pointing to a decline in the number of voters who believe the country is "on the right track."
As the stock market continued to slide, so too has consumer confidence, and this was reflected in a July 21 ABC News/Money magazine poll. That survey found the Consumer Comfort Index down five points in two weeks, with only 36 percent rating the economy as excellent or good. As many as 64 percent said it is not good or poor, but 59 percent rated their personal finances excellent or good.
Not surprisingly, combined results from two July polls taken by Ipsos-Reid for the Cook Political Report are reflective of the stream of press accounts about stock-market woes having an impact on the direction in which voters perceive the country to be moving. The inquiry questioned a combined sample of 2,000 adults and 1,538 registered voters.
Analysis of the results along party and gender lines found little movement among independent voters, but the Ipsos-Reid analysis notes that "the very small sample of independent men suggests the possibility of movement among that narrow constituency against the Democrats in recent weeks." While it is hard to refute claims of a decline in voter confidence and increased concern, which party will benefit and to what degree remains the overriding question as the parties head into the thick of the campaign.
"The public-opinion climate is pretty volatile because we've had the recession, the war on terrorism and now corporate greed. Each of those issues cut in very different ways and that makes for a tricky environment," asserts Darrell West, chairman of the political-science department at Brown University in Providence, R.I. The economy could lead to the defeat of some Republicans, West says. If the "stock-market losses lead to economic weakness, that is always bad for the party holding the presidency." However, he says, if job and income growth remain strong "that will be good for the Republicans."
The unwieldy state of the political landscape elicits "cautious optimism" from National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) spokesman Dan Allen, who believes the GOP is in a good position to regain the majority in the Senate. "I think from our standpoint things are looking good. But we are not taking any of these races for granted," Allen says. He adds that "there are going to be a lot of highly competitive races which won't be decided until the end" of the campaign.
Allen's Democratic counterpart flatly predicts Democrats will pick up seats. "I think this will come down to a handful of races that are very close. Looking at the poll numbers and the financials, we are in a great position, particularly with some of the unexpected opportunities," says Tovah Ravitz-Meehan, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
The retirements of Republican Sens. Phil Gramm of Texas and Fred Thompson of Tennessee were unexpected departures; less surprising were the announcements by Strom Thurmond of South Carolina and Jesse Helms of North Carolina. Since the defection from the GOP of Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont to vote as an independent for Democratic control of the Senate, neither party has been pulling punches.
The national Republican Party has launched an aggressive ad campaign targeting Democratic Sens. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Jeanne Carnahan of Missouri, all of whom it views as vulnerable. Furthermore, in the fight for the open Texas seat, the big guns have been called in to provide cover. To support state Attorney General John Cornyn in his contest against Democratic candidate and former Dallas mayor Ron Kirk, Vice President Dick Cheney recently traveled to the state and openly criticized Kirk for opposing conservative judicial nominee Priscilla Owen, popular among both Democrats and Republicans in the Lone Star State. Although Kirk has campaigned as a centrist, much has been made of his fund-raising among out-of-state liberals.
"He doesn't want Bill Clinton to come to the state, but he will go raise money with him in New York. He won't invite Hillary Clinton to campaign for him, but he will go to Washington to raise money. He says he supports Bush, but is getting help from people like Clinton and [Senate Majority Leader Tom] Daschle who are obstructing Bush's agenda," NRSC's Allen says of Kirk.
The races are no less personal on the Democratic side. Ravitz-Meehan boosts Rep. Bob Clement's chances to win the open Senate seat in Tennessee. "Bob has been running an absolutely flawless campaign," she says, noting that unlike the Republicans, the Democratic congressman does not have a primary opponent. GOP former governor Lamar Alexander and former congressman Ed Bryant currently are battling for the nomination. Furthermore, adds Ravitz-Meehan, Al Gore has committed himself to strengthening Democrats in his home state, which he lost in 2000, and has been campaigning aggressively on behalf of Democratic candidates.
The fists flying in the internecine battles in New Hampshire between Senate GOP candidates Rep. John Sununu and incumbent Sen. Bob Smith, and in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Michigan between Rep. David Bonior, ex-governor James Blanchard and state Attorney General Jennifer Granholm, should serve as an early warning of the contentiousness of the upcoming campaigns. Not to mention the Minnesota gubernatorial contest between candidates from four different political parties.
The hard-fought battles and close races may energize some voters and get them to the polls. "If you have a high-profile race at the top of the ticket, that pulls people out. And there is nothing like a good Senate or gubernatorial election." As for ballot initiatives or referenda, West says that unless they deal with "hot-button" issues they rarely draw voters to the polls. On the other hand, a deluge of special-interest TV and radio ads could turn off the critical independent voters, especially in the waning days of the campaign. While midterm elections historically are focused on by those most interested in politics, the races often will hinge on independents attracted to the polls by local issues.
"I expect only about 35 percent of the eligible electorate to come out to vote," predicts West of Brown University. "The parties are pretty evenly balanced, so small movements can get magnified and you could end up with a new speaker of the House with a relatively small seat shift."
Spotlighting Races in Strategic States
With Republicans defending 23 of the 36 governorships (and 11 of the 18 open seats) in November, Democrats expect to make gains on the state level. Here are some contests that could have an impact on other races.
California: Always a race to watch, the California gubernatorial contest pits incumbent Democratic Gov. Gray Davis against GOP businessman Bill Simon, who defeated former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan in the primary. Davis may be suffering from lackluster approval ratings and trailing in several recent polls, but a campaign war chest of $32 million (he raised $13.9 million in the first six months of 2002) and a Democratic playing field tilt the race toward Davis.
Simon, who had $5 million on hand as of June 30, should see his bank account bolstered by three fund-raisers planned before Labor Day — all to be headlined by President George W. Bush. Simon is very much in this one, and the wild card could be Green Party candidate Peter Camejo.
Connecticut: Incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Rowland has enjoyed a generous lead, but a recent University of Connecticut poll found his margin over Democratic challenger Bill Curry shrinking. According to the survey, Rowland leads Curry 45 percent to 30 percent, with 20 percent undecided. Largely an unknown, Curry has not benefited from the decline as the majority of voters left Rowland for the undecided camp. The Rowland camp announced the launch of its first ad campaign on July 25.
Florida: Gov. Jeb Bush has been wearing a Democratic bull's-eye on his chest since the conclusion of the 2000 presidential campaign. Despite entering the race with a high name ID, former Clinton attorney general Janet Reno has not been able to pull away from her primary opponent, Tampa lawyer Bill McBride. Reno may have won applause from the audience at Janet Reno's Dance Party [see political notebook, p. 47], but McBride has won the endorsement of the Florida Education Association, and a Reno candidacy continues to make some Democratic Party officials as nervous as a three-legged dog in a room full of alligators.
Maryland: What initially was seen as a safe seat for Democrats has become vulnerable. Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was considered the favorite because of her high name recognition, full campaign war chest and the Democratic leanings of the state, but minor missteps appear to have confused her campaign. A July 17-19 poll conducted for the Baltimore Sun and Gazette newspapers found Townsend's early 15-point lead over GOP nominee Rep. Robert Ehrlich Jr. whittled to just four points (47 percent to 43 percent). Among black voters, the poll found a drop of 13 percentage points in her approval ratings, reflecting a disaffection some voters have with the policies of her administration. Ehrlich and running mate Michael Steele, former chairman of the Maryland GOP, actively have reached out to black voters.
Massachusetts: The decision by GOP Gov. Jane Swift not to seek re-election has left open the door to the governor's mansion. Moving quickly from organizing the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City to organizing a gubernatorial candidacy, Republican Mitt Romney and running mate Kerry Murphy Healey likely will emerge atop the Republican ticket. In the Democratic primary, former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich must overcome State Treasurer Shannon O'Brien and Senate President Thomas Birmingham, the labor-union favorite. News accounts of alleged improper use of state lottery workers and a critical report by state auditor Joe DeNucci of front-runner O'Brien's handling of the state's Enron investments may hinder her campaign.
Minding the P's and Q's of the Primaries
At press time the following states had not yet held primary elections:
Aug. 1: Tennessee
Aug. 6: Kansas, Michigan and Missouri
Aug. 13: Colorado
Aug. 20: Georgia and Wyoming
Aug. 27: Alaska and Oklahoma
Sept. 3: Nevada
Sept. 7: Delaware
Sept. 10 Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Vermont and Wisconsin
Sept. 17: Massachusetts, Washington state and Oklahoma
Sept. 21: Hawaii
Quitting: In addition to Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R-Ark.), now administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration, and Rep. Tony Hall (D-Ohio), who was tapped to be U.S. ambassador to the U.N. food and agriculture organizations, there are a number of vacancies at the congressional inn.
In search of a higher power, six Democrats retired or resigned to seek their party's nomination for governor or U.S. senator, compared with 12 Republicans who did so. Suddenly not-so-congenial districts as a result of redistricting (and the need to "spend time with family") have opened up six Democratic seats and 18 GOP seats, including four in the Senate. Four Democratic incumbents and one Republican were defeated in primary races, while four vacancies were created in the House by the deaths of Julian Dixon (D-Calif.), Joe Moakley (D-Mass.), Norm Sisisky (D-Va.) and Floyd Spence (R-S.C.).
And, alas, Rep. James Traficant (D-Ohio) was beamed out of the House of Representatives after his conviction on fraud charges, but plans to run for his seat as an independent.
Jennifer G. Hickey is a writer for Insight.
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Please allow me to offer two essential points to this discussion of what may happen in the House, come November. I have a major article coming out in the September/October issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. It is 3,200 words, has ample charts and graphs, and "twenty-seven 8 by 10, color glossy pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one." The title is, "'Til Death Does Us Part;" it discusses turnover in the House from the second election in 1790 through 2002, plus a projection for 2004.
The first point to make is this: There are only 20 House seats in play for this fall (meaning the winner is likely to have less than 55% of the vote). All the other races are over, done, kaput, history -- based on incumbency, money raised, and one-party districts. (The fact that primaries are not yet over in a third of the states is utterly irrelevant to this analysis.)
Therefore, for the Democrats to retake the House, they MUST win 14 of those 20 seats. That is 70% of the possible seats. They are NOT going to achieve that. Therefore, the Republicans will continue to hold the House.
The second factor concerns polling on the "generic congressional question" which is, "Do you intend to vote Republican or Democratic for the House of Representatives?" Reputable polls have this as a statistical tie. That means the Republicans will pick up seats. Here's why:
Elections are not decided by the general adult public as polls are. Only people who turn out and vote matter in elections. And voters who are older, better-educated, more religious, and/or married (with children) are all more likely to turn out and vote than their opposites. Also, all of these groups are more likely to vote Republican. Therefore, the generic congressional question ALWAYS understates the actual Republican vote.
For this, and many other reasons, I stand by my prediction, first made a year before the election, that the Republicans will gain 5 to 7 seats in the House, come November.
The New York Times is just whistling past the graveyard or lying through their teeth, take your pick.
Congressman Billybob
Click for: "Memo to Li'l Tommy Dascle: 'You're Busted.'"
Click and bookmark for the Contingencies article, come the end of September.
I stand by my prediction, first made a year before the election, that the Republicans will gain 5 to 7 seats in the House, come November.From your keyboard to the Holy Spirit's ear...Amen!
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