The Coming Attack

On May 18 the New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence had intercepted a “troubling series of communications among Al Qaeda operatives” about an intensive effort “to carry out an operation as big as or bigger than the Sept. 11 attacks….” According to the Times, the details of al Qaeda’s plans are yet unknown. “There’s just a lot of chatter in the system again,” one official told the Times. This “chatter” is alarming because it contains references to attacks that would cause “vast numbers of American casualties.” What kinds of attacks are indicated? In the last few weeks al Qaeda spokesmen have begun to publicly discuss what the Americans can expect.

In a recent message broadcast on al Jazeera television in the Middle East, al Qaeda spokesman and Kuwaiti-born Muslim cleric Sulaiman Abu Ghaith said that Osama bin Laden is preparing further attacks on the United States. “The al Qaeda leadership is 98 percent intact,” said Abu Ghaith, and bin Laden is still running the show. Earlier this month Abu Ghaith reportedly said, “America should get ready and fasten its safety belt. We will come at them from a direction they do not expect. Yes, we will make attacks but at the right time, at the place we choose after the fashion we please.”

The place of attack will almost certainly be inside the United States and the time may be soon. The Arabic Sahab website (ÇáÕÝÍÉ ÇáÚÑÈíÉ ÇáÅÓáÇãíÉ ÓÍÇÈ ) has reported that Osama bin Laden will be releasing a video on July 4. The timing is suggestive, adding subtle confirmation to earlier reports that an attack against America has been planned for July. More than two weeks ago the website www.alneda.com (also now defunct) briefly carried a message in Arabic from Abu Ghaith that said, “We are still at the beginning of the road. The Americans have not yet suffered from us what we have suffered from them.” He then added that Islam has “the right to kill four million Americans, including one million children, displace double that figure and injure and cripple hundreds of thousands.”

The key comment in Abu Ghaith’s statement is his reference to “displacing double” the figure killed. Chemical and biological weapons cannot do this in the stated proportions. Furthermore, an attacker cannot come up with large approximate casualty projections for biological and chemical weapons, where the results of attacks depend on weather and variable weapon potency (often incalculable). Only nuclear weapons aimed at cities promise such casualty figures.

A handful of small tactical nuclear devices with yields between one and 10 kilotons could not produce such a large result. The Hiroshima bomb, which was 15 kilotons, only managed to kill 100,000 people. Today’s American cities would probably sustain fewer casualties than a 1945 Japanese city because of modern earthquake and fire standards. Even if the Hiroshima result could be replicated under American conditions, forty Hiroshima bombs would be required to kill 4 million Americans. Quite naturally, it is improbable that al Qaeda would be able to acquire, let alone manage, forty nuclear devices. If Abu Ghaith’s statements reflect an actual plan of attack, it would mean that al Qaeda has several large-yield nuclear devices in the 100 to 500 kiloton range. Such devices could effectively gut a major city, killing millions and leaving millions homeless. Furthermore, the successful use of such weapons against seven U.S. cities might collapse the U.S. economy, discredit the U.S. government and demoralize the American people. Such an attack would also make good on the terrorist promise that the U.S. dollar will become absolutely worthless in short order.

But are Abu Ghaith’s pronouncements reliable? Are they, perhaps, intended to frighten or impress weak-minded people?

It is significant that Ghaith’s statements mirror similar statements made privately among al Qaeda operatives. As a rule of thumb: when secret communications reflect public pronouncements, it is time to pay close attention. Under such circumstances, U.S. officials should be exhaustively investigating all reports suggestive of a possible nuclear attack.

The story of Lebanese-born American Michael Hamdan may be relevant. Hamdan says he overheard a mobile phone conversation in Arabic about a projected attack on Las Vegas: “We are here in the city of corruption,” the Arab speakers allegedly stated, “the city of gambling and prostitution, the city of unbelievers.” They spoke of hitting the city on America’s “day of freedom,” the Fourth of July. While Hamdan’s testimony did not impress the FBI lie detectors, Independence Day has shown up elsewhere in reports related to terror. In fact, the Fourth of July has shown up in the internal al Qaeda “chatter” before. Also remember, as stated earlier, the Arabic Sahab website claims that bin Laden will deliver a special “televised address to the world” via videotape on July 4.

Statements from bin Laden since Sept. 11 have been few and far between. Normally talkative and in love with publicity, bin Laden’s great silence in recent months has been taken by some as evidence that he is dead. Now we are told to expect to hear from him on American Independence Day. Are all these references to one special day merely coincidental?

With limited information, nobody outside of al Qaeda can say with any certainty. What is certain, however, is that the United States remains vulnerable. The basic security problem that brought us 9/11 has not been solved. America has wasted the last nine months, failing to deal adequately with the domestic terror threat. This is obvious when it comes to the issue of foreign infiltrators determined to import nuclear, biological or chemical terror. Despite 9/11, American’s continue to put civil liberties first and security last. The prevailing mindset in the country emphasizes civil liberties at the expense of security, so that law enforcement, counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism are yet hamstrung.

The terrifying significance of countless enemy aliens operating in the United States has not registered. The fact that mass destruction weapons could be smuggled into the country has not altered the country’s adherence to political ideals that have always given way during times of war. But not today.

According to sources in law enforcement, forty terrorist infiltrators are believed to have entered the Los Angeles area by boat in early June. There are clues suggestive of a maritime terrorist attack against San Francisco. It seems that a “Middle Eastern” man recently took the ferry to Alcatraz. When the boat arrived on the island he didn’t get off. Instead, he videotaped naval traffic in the Bay while using a stopwatch. In another incident, dating back to October, three Middle Eastern men boarded a ferry at Pier 41 for Alameda. One of them alarmed the crew by climbing to the upper deck to watch the captain. Meanwhile his associates videotaped Anchorage Terminal 9, also using a stopwatch. In yet another San Francisco incident, dated Oct. 20, six Golden Gate Transit uniforms were taken from a ferry employee’s car, along with ferry schedules and maritime maps. The thieves neglected to steal money and CDs that were left in the car.

Whatever the terrorists are planning, San Francisco is a chief target. There is growing concern that a sea-borne attack against U.S. cities is coming. And why would terrorists be interested in the ferry schedule to Alcatraz? Perhaps it makes sense because Alcatraz offers reliable sheltering and is a good observation point for terrorist operatives immediately after a nuclear weapon is set to detonate in a shipping container sitting at an anchorage terminal.

This column is intended to frighten Americans because Americans ought to be frightened. At present the country acts as if 9/11 did not happen. We are not taking sufficient steps, we are not acting with the warlike emphasis of times past, because America is not sufficiently alarmed. Apparently we cannot rouse ourselves to overhaul inadequate security measures, to pay the price of greater protection, on a basis of simple prudence. It seems that our hair must be made to stand on end. Unfortunately, if something dreadful happens next week (i.e., something nuclear) the attending panic might produce an even worse result – paralysis.

I pray that nothing happens. I pray that the terrorists lack the weapons since they do not lack the will to use them. For it is certain that we lack the will to eject all resident and illegal aliens from the offending region. And lacking that will, infiltration by enemy operatives is relatively easy.

If alQaeda had a nuclear weapon they would have used it on 9/11, when they had the maximum element of surprise. The fact that they had to employ crude methods to hijack our own airplanes instead indicates that they had nothing more effective available, and it's unlikely they've acquired a nuke since, with all the heat on them. So whatever they're planning, it most probably won't be nuclear.

Just about the last thing in the world I am worried about, is Al Queda possessing a nuclear weapon, let alone being able to smuggle it into a major American city.

If they could do that, Tel Aviv wouldn't be standing today.

Chemical and biological weapons cannot do this in the stated proportions.

Not true. The right ones with the right disperal methods can cause calamitous damage and casualties.

Visualize smallpox....

A handful of small tactical nuclear devices with yields between one and 10 kilotons could not produce such a large result.

One thing he's not factoring in is thousands of people gathered together to watch fireworks...

I certainly hope that no nuclear attack takes place, especially with the connivance of Saudi Arabia, because if it does, public reaction may dictate there may be no further purpose for the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

Smallpox would, again, have been an effective weapon prior to 9/11. Now, if people started showing up with smallpox-like symptoms, it is MUCH more likely it would be properly diagnosed, and promptly. Quarantines, vaccination programs and new drugs to combat the disease almost make smallpox a waste of time for terrorists.

I don't believe this Hamdan guy, either. The statements he attributes to these possible terrorists sounds more like a movie script than anything a true terrorist would utter. That whole "We are here in the blah, blah, blah," just sounds like Hollywood nonsense.

Yeah, he's clearly full of it. The whole scenario was very improbable, and the call could have been traced, even if it was a malfunction. If it did happen, it was because someone who knows Hamdan accidentally dialed his cell phone (in the pocket, keyboard not locked), in which case figuring out who it was will be trivial.

Bump.....

Saudi Arabia, Mecca will no longer exist...we'll leave the oil fields intact, goodbye Bagdad, Tehran, Damascus & Libya.....

NeverGore

Smallpox would kill millions where? Good Lord, you'd have to infect, 50 million people to get a mortality in the millions. How are 50 million people going to get infected with anything before quarantines, etc would be put in place.

Smallpox would, again, have been an effective weapon prior to 9/11.

It is still an effective weapon until we get enough vaccine to stop a widespread outbreak. But, even then it is problematical as the Soviets have supposedly developed species resistant to our typical smallpox vaccines. If a terrorist organization had some of these bugs, all the vaccinations in the world wouldn't save you. Remember, almost 95% of the pre-Columbus Amerindian population was wiped out by disease to which they had no immunity. The survivors and their defunct civilizations were devastated. They went from a nearly unbeatable power to slavery in a few short years.

There are lots of biologicals other than smallpox that are a threat. Sure, they may wipe out half the world. But, do you think Al Queda would care? It's the cause that counts!

I would invite all American men who are heathly, strong, and patriotic in joining me in beating the snot out of any arabs taking video of Naval vessels (and anything else for that matter) with stop watches. It is at least our duty to question them aggressively and perhaps even invite them and their camera to take a swim.

J.R. Nyquist simply takes the terrorist's projected casualty claims at face value--he does not, for example, consider that they MIGHT be engaging in hyperbole--the sort of hyperbole that led Saddam Hussein to promise "the mother of all battles" and that the desert would turn into a sea of American blood, for example.

The death rate is about 30%. It would take a minimum of 6 million infections to reach a death rate of "millions." You also assume the epdemic does not spread to parts of the world where it cannot be controlled through quarantines.

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