There are a lot of US military people in this area right now. If these two countries go nuclear, we will feel it.
-- Kiss of the Sith
Posted on 05/25/2002 2:31:58 PM PDT by maquiladora
NEW DELHI: India has given Pakistan two weeks to end cross-border terror and begin dismantling training camps in Pakistan and PoK. After coming close to acting against these camps last week, India drew back from the brink after obtaining what an official termed ‘ironclad commitments’ from the US and UK that Pakistan would act on these demands.
Early last week, India provided evidence to the US and UK that far from closing down the camps, Pakistan had opened as many as 70 new establishments across PoK where some 3,000 militants belonging to various groups were waiting for a chance to slip into Kashmir in the coming months. It was following the receipt of this information that the US initiated its latest moves, which include forthcoming visits by UK foreign minister Jack Straw and deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage to the region and the recently concluded mission by EU commissioner Chris Patten.
Indian officials say that they are neither optimistic nor pessimistic about what will happen in the coming weeks. ‘‘The Pakistanis have proved to be slippery customers,’’ said an officer. ‘‘We are clear that if the Pakistanis do not oblige, we reserve the right to act and we will be doing so in legitimate self-defence, after having given Pakistan every chance to mend its ways.’’ India has assured the US that if the Pakistanis do end infiltration, India will match it by demobilising its army and, over time, engage Pakistan in a substantive dialogue over Kashmir.
India accepts that violence will not cease in the Valley even if the Pakistanis do the needful in the coming weeks, there are huge arms and ammunition stocks already in the Valley as well as well-trained and dedicated jihadi cadre.
'All it takes to derail the peace process is a couple of pistols,' says an intelligence official referring to the assassination of Abdul Ghani Lone, the Hurriyat leader who was contemplating participating in the elections. But he concedes, 'That is a bridge we will cross when we come to it.'
The US is also moving to provide more sustained technical support to India to end cross-border terrorism. The Indian defence mission led by Defence Secretary Yogendra Narain has been assured that the US will provide its latest sensors and high-tech surveillance equipment such as unmanned aerial aircraft to patrol the border.
More than the immediate it is apparent that the US is making good its promise to take India onboard the fight against terrorism. There is nothing altruistic about this. As the Al Qaeda elements meld into the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Territories and the battle ground shifts to Pakistan, it is becoming clear that the terrorists who strike in Kaluchak are the same as those who hit in Karachi.
Question is, will the ISI and the army carry out his orders?
I called mid-June in the pool last week...
This is one of the necessary steps to satisfy international legal requirements for war. This is the stage of pre-war known as the ultimatum. The ultimatum follows failure of negotiations and withdrawal of diplomatic relations, which are also recognized pre-war legal stages. The standard and ordinary ultimatum contains specific demands and a specific time limit and is usually something the enemy could accept without great loss. The ultimatum is usually rejected and the war itself begins, but sometimes the ultimatum is accepted.
There are a lot of US military people in this area right now. If these two countries go nuclear, we will feel it.
-- Kiss of the Sith
We've been here before. December, after the attack on the Parliment, the same situation. India threatened war, but the U.S. brought pressure on Musharraf to crackdown on the militants. In January he made a speech denouncing terror and later he ordered the arrest of 2000 militants.
India were forced to back down in the face of that. But then all those arrested terrorists were released again, and the ISI still supported and funded the militants and then only about a week and a half ago 34 people, the families of Indian troops, will killed in a terror attack. That has sparked this new crisis and once again the U.S. is pushing Musharraf to take serious action.
As Yogi Bear once said, it's like deja vu all over again.
So India is once biten, twice shy. India won't be fooled by promises again.
Musharraf will have to act real fast, and real strong.
Will he? Can he?
We'll know it about 2 weeks.
If India takes action, it'll either be between now and late-June or else some time after September.
Another fact: India is a naval power, at least to the extent that they can create massive havoc with their carrier-based Harriers.
This war will be in the far north, in the air, and the wastelands of the Hindu Kush, which soon, after India crushes Pakistan will be renamed for our Musli "brothers".
Pakistan, being the weaker of the two, will probably make a first strike (with nukes) before the time deadline. A nuclear first stike is Pakistan's only real hope of victory.
Is it any wonder that the terrorists [and their Pakistani masters] only feel bolder after watching the Indian forces apply the brakes? Surely they are justified in thinking that for all of India's shouting and posturing, it lacks the guts for the final move? Did the US mobilise its forces for the Gulf War in 1991 or the Afghan war last year, and then ask them to stop while it pondered its next act?
One only wishes that the current Indian Army chief had told the politicians to back off from using the army for political sabre-rattling and give the call for mobilisation only after the politicians had finally made up their minds. The analogy that comes to mind is the famous Indira Gandhi-Sam Maneckshaw tussle in 1971. The then army chief, General [later Field Marshal] Maneckshaw twice turned down the request of the then prime minister to attack East Pakistan.
The first was in March: Maneckshaw said he was not ready. The second was in August, when he pointed out that his tanks would get bogged down in East Pakistan because of the monsoon. Finally, in November, he said he was ready, and proved it with the Indian Army's quick success in liberating Bangladesh in just 14 days!
Yes, that is a reasonable, though highly risky outcome. For every crazy suicidal muslim fanatic on the boarder there are ten more inside Pakistan who are just waiting for a reason to rebel against Musharraf.
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