Posted on 05/25/2002 8:34:28 AM PDT by maquiladora
25 May 2002: The Indian military leadership has been directed to hold back a major offensive operation planned against Pakistan in the first week of June, top officials said.
Prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee told the military at the meeting of the cabinet committee on security on Thursday after returning from Jammu and Kashmir to delay its so-called "degradation operation" against Pakistani defence positions in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Military officials said that Vajpayee told them in characteristic style to "wait" a little longer.
Vajpayee said in Kashmir after visiting frontline troops and hospitalised victims of the Kaluchak massacre that the sky had cleared but lightening could fall.
The degradation operation has been conceived to disable Pakistan's capacity to fight a "cohesive, responsive, and defensive" battle in the area of Indian offence (See Special Report, "India to degrade Pak military along LoC," 24 May 2002).See below
The operation will precede a military offensive and would involve complete destruction of a large military zone 50 square kilometres or more in size using artillery, missiles, rockets, fighter aircraft and even tanks.
Officials said that the degradation option is more or less closed with early monsoons forecasted for northern India in the first week of July.
"There is perhaps a small window of opportunity in June still left," a senior official said.
"If that is closed, we begin the long wait for the next campaigning season."
The army has already deployed newly-acquired military hardware for degradation operations.
New equipment include the US gun-locating radar ANTPQ, Israeli Searcher 1, Searcher 2 and Hiron UAVs, Israeli anti-infiltration sound sensors, and the Russian multi-barrel rocket system SMERCH.
Multi-barrel rocket systems were enormously effective during the Kargil War.
The degradation operations were designed to be part of Operation Parakram III launched after the Kaluchak massacre.
The Indian Army had commenced impressment of vehicles for the impending war with Pakistan under Operation Parakram III.
"This has been put on hold," an official said.
The Indian Army has also delayed certain strategic manoeuvres in the Punjab plains.
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24 May 2002: Fitting political ends to military means is never easy. When India decided to mount a diplomatic assault on Pakistan assisted by proactive posturing by its armed forces, there was little clarity on what military options India could realistically exercise.
Permutations and combinations had to be worked out by the generals in order to present before the government a viable military alternative.
Five months into the most elaborate military build-up, Indian forces have devised a few options based on an innovative firepower strategy. Like every other war strategy, this one too is aimed at shaping the battlefield to India’s advantage through dominance of artillery and air power. However, the ground rules in this case are different. With the government more interested in a limited offensive in Kashmir, the military had to take into account how the various political constraints would translate on to the battlefield.
Degradation operation, as it has come to be known, is what the Indian military has come up with. The objective is to disable the opponent’s ability to fight a “cohesive, responsive, and defensive” battle in the areas of Indian offence. In other words, the degradation operation would precede any military offensive.
Officials say that this operation would be carried out along specific zones on the Line of Control. It would entail participation by the Indian Air Force, the artillery, armoured corps in certain areas, missile and rocket units, and hi-tech target acquisition equipment like unmanned aerial vehicles. The idea, strategists say, is to acquire coordinates of specific military locations on the Pakistani side that are of crucial importance to Pakistan to stage a defensive battle. These could be potential forward assembly areas, gun positions, supply routes, existing bases, and other tactically important points.
Unlike a normal artillery assault on enemy position, this kind of warfare involves complete destruction of large military zones equal to or exceeding 50 square kilometres. The method has been termed “fire assault”. According to this concept, artillery guns, missiles, rockets, fighter aircraft and, in some cases, tanks would all fire in sync to completely destroy a particular area. Such should be the level of degradation, an official explains, that it would take sufficient time for the enemy to regroup. More significantly, the logistical arrangements would be “crippled”.
What has made such an operation possible, officials say, is the level of troop mobilisation in Jammu and Kashmir these days. “We are present in such large numbers that we can undertake such an operation within a few hours notice,” an official said. “The calculation is that such an assault would not only degrade the potential of Pakistan to fight a proper defensive battle, but also cause irreparable psychological damage.”
While most of this operation is based on the use and application of artillery including missiles and rockets, a crucial role has to be played by the air force. According to officials, tanks would be used only in some areas in Akhnoor sector in the southern portion of the LoC, but the air force would have to combine with the artillery in almost all zones. This has resulted in some transformation of the operational role of the air force. It would not be destroying enemy airbases but specific locations.
Usually, the air force would undertake such operations only after it has gained air superiority by destroying enemy airbases. Since this would involve strikes outside PoK risking escalation, officials have decided that the air force must restrict itself to a tactical role like fighting the battle in conjunction with the artillery. The flip side of this is that fighter aircraft could get involved in frequent air battles with enemy aircraft. But officials say the risk is worth taking in the larger interest of an Indian offensive.
Any troop offensive into Pakistan-held areas would follow the degradation operation. Officials say that the period after the degradation operation and before launching a troop offensive could be a few hours. The government would have a small window to call off the operations. Once ground troops get committed, officials say, there is little possibility of calling off operations without attaining specified objectives.
“If Pakistan were to respond favourably after the fire assault, the government can decide to stall the troop offensive,” an official said. “But mind you, the window would be very small.”
Either that or this is dis-information.
Also, I think this was written before Pakistan's latest 'missle test'.
Tuor
So if a war is to happen now, it won't happen unless Pakistan goes back on its word (again) sometime later in the Summer, then we could see an Indian offensive in 5 or 6 months time.
But, for the moment, I think it's time to relax. Things have changed, Pakistan has buckled and there will be no war.
I'll relax after the monsoon season starts...probably.
Tuor
It's a stunt by Musharrif for domestic purposes. The Paki on the street sees him as some sort of proud military ruler, off testing missiles etc while really this is to cover over the fact that he has to crack down very heavily on support to the militants attacking India in Kashmir, something which is very unpopular in Islamabad. He's just trying to pacify them by taking the sting out of the news on the anti-terror moves.
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