Posted on 05/12/2002 6:34:34 PM PDT by swarthyguy
The White House is sending a top official to India and Pakistan for urgent talks because of renewed fears that the nuclear powers are preparing to go to war over the disputed territory of Kashmir. Intelligence reports circulating in London and Washington warn that the neighbours, who almost slid into war in January, are on the brink of another big confrontation.
The reports are being taken so seriously by the Bush administration that it is sending its assistant secretary of state for the region, Christina Rocca, for a three-day visit, beginning tomorrow.
In particular, India has signalled in recent weeks that it is considering limited military action against Pakistan if Islamist militants continue to "infiltrate" Indian Kashmir. Large-scale movements by Indian forces near the Pakistani border have also set alarm bells ringing in the West.
India has apparently hinted that it might launch attacks on the mountain passes used by the militants to creep across from Pakistan. It is even contemplating a full-scale assault on training camps used by militants inside Pakistan, an act that would almost certainly provoke retaliation from Islamabad.
"We are deeply worried about the situation in Kashmir. It is our number one concern," a senior Foreign Office source admitted last night. "We are also anxious that the command and control structures that govern India and Pakistan's nuclear weapons systems are not adequate, and that the two countries could slip into conflict that spins out of control."
The latest stand-off follows a lethal attack by Islamist militants on India's parliament building last December. India blamed Pakistan for the assault, sent tens of thousands of troops to the border, and demanded an end to "cross-border terrorism". It also produced a list of 20 "criminals" and told Pakistan to hand them over.
Tensions reached a high point in January, but later sub sided, despite the continuing presence of 500,000 troops on the Indo-Pakistan border.
The new threat of war came after Indian officials concluded that militants were still piling into Kashmir, despite a pledge by Pakistan's leader, General Pervez Musharraf, to end "terrorism".
In March and April 600 people were killed in Kashmir, and a further 110 died in the first 11 days of May, India's prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, said last week. "As the snow melts in the Himalayan mountains and the al-Qaida and Taliban forces seek a new outlet for their activity, infiltration has seen a further increase," he said.
Pakistan - which claims India's superior chunk of Kashmir for itself - has always insisted that the 12-year rebellion in the Muslim-dominated state is an indigenous one. This is not quite true. In the past Islamabad has provided arms and training to Islamist volunteers who have crossed into Indian Kashmir and carried out often suicidal attacks against security forces.
Since signing up to America's war on terrorism, Gen Musharraf has distanced himself from the Islamist extremists. But it is not clear if he is able to stop them crossing into Indian Kashmir - or if he wants to.
During her visit, Ms Rocca is expected to tell Indian officials that Gen Musharraf is too weak politically to do much about the problem.
Pakistan has so far refused to hand over any of the 20 people on India's list. The US is likely to press for a compromise formula in which four or five of them are surrendered, and to urge both sides to start talking again.
The uncompromising message from New Delhi is clearly designed to pile the pressure on Pakistan, and may be little more than a negotiating tactic. But the countries' inclination to go to war over Kashmir should not be underestimated.
Kashmir has already provided the spark for two wars and the neighbours came close to fighting a third in 1999 when Pakistani soldiers squatted in the Himalayan mountains near the town of Kargil.
I already logged in about 100+ posts at Freerepublic about the India/Pakistan stand-off and the theme to these posts is that there won't be a war between these two countries.
I'm not going to reiterate my arguments right now, but these two countries are just going to start pounding their fists into the sand to try to draw some of our attention their way.
The new threat of war came after Indian officials concluded that militants were still piling into Kashmir, despite a pledge by Pakistan's leader, General Pervez Musharraf, to end "terrorism".Let India have Musharraf's head on a platter.
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