Posted on 04/14/2002 4:01:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
LINKS to Hugo Chavez's "government" June 2001 - March 2002
I'm keeping track of Hugoland formally known as Venezuela. Please LINK any stories or add what you wish to this thread. The above LINK takes you to past articles posted before the new FR format. Below I'll add what I've catalogued since that LINK no longer could take posts.
(March 1, 2002)-- Venezuela's strongman faces widespread calls to step down
By Phil Gunson | Special to The Christian Science Monitor
[Full Text] CARACAS, VENEZUELA - The man who won Venezuelan hearts three years ago as a strongman who could deliver a better life to the masses is now facing them in the streets.
More than 20,000 people turned out this week calling for the resignation of President Hugo Chávez, while some 2,000 supporters marched in a rival demonstration of support. The demonstrations come after months of building discontent with a president who has managed to alienate the labor class, the media, business groups, the church, political parties, and the military.
Four military leaders have publicly called for his resignation.
In November, Chávez introduced 49 "revolutionary" decrees. The package of laws - affecting everything from land rights and fisheries to the oil industry - unified virtually the whole of organized society in a nationwide business and labor stoppage that paralyzed the country on Dec. 10.
The protests this week have a note of irony, because they started out as a commemoration called by President Chávez. In his eyes, Feb. 27 is a milestone of his so-called revolution - "the date on which the people awoke" in 1989. That is when thousands of rioters and looters took to the streets in protest of an IMF-backed austerity plan, in which the government hiked gas prices.
In what became known as the caracazo, or noisy protest, thousands of rioters and looters were met by Venezuelan military forces, and hundreds were killed. Three years later, Chávez and his military co-conspirators failed in an attempt to overthrow the government responsible for the massacre, that of President Carlos Andres Perez. Chávez was jailed for two years.
"But the elements that brought about the caracazo are still present in Venezuela," says lawyer Liliana Ortega, who for 13 years has led the fight for justice on behalf of the victims' relatives. "Poverty, corruption, impunity ... some of them are perhaps even more deeply ingrained than before."
Chávez's supporters consist of an inchoate mass of street traders, the unemployed, and those whom the old system had marginalized. This, to Chávez, is el pueblo - the people.
"But we are 'the people' too," protests teacher Luis Leonet. "We're not oligarchs like he says. The oligarchs are people like Chávez, people with power."
On Wednesday, Leonet joined a march led by the main labor confederation, the CTV, to protest what unions say is a series of antilabor measures, including one of the 49 decrees dealing with public-sector workers.
Chávez won't talk to the CTV, whose leaders, he says, are corrupt and illegitimate. So he refuses to negotiate the annual renewal of collective contracts with the confederation, holding up deals on pay and conditions for hundreds of thousands of union members like Leonet.
Across town on Wednesday, a progovernment march sought to demonstrate that the president's popularity was as high as ever.
"For the popular classes, Chávez is an idol," says marcher Pedro Gutierrez.
Pollster Luis Vicente Leon, of the Datanalisis organization, warns that marches are no measure of relative popularity. "There is a lot of discontent among ... the really poor," Leon says, adding that so far the protests are mainly among the middle class.
But the middle class can be a dangerous enemy. It includes the bulk of the armed forces, and the management of the state oil company, PDVSA.
This month, four uniformed officers, ranging from a National Guard captain to a rear-admiral and an Air Force general, called on the president to resign, while repudiating the idea of a military coup of Chávez, himself a former Army lieutenant-colonel.
But senior "institutionalist" officers "are under severe pressure from lower ranks frustrated at the lack of impact" that these acts have had, a source close to military dissidents says. In other words, a coup cannot be ruled out, although the United States publicly denounces the idea.
Meanwhile, the president's imposition of a new board of directors on PDVSA this week sparked a virtual uprising by the company's senior management. In an unprecedented public statement, managers said the government was pushing the company "to the verge of operational and financial collapse" by imposing political, rather than commercial, criteria.
The political opposition remains relatively weak and divided. But in the view of many analysts, a president who offends both the military and the oil industry is asking for trouble. In the bars and restaurants of Caracas, the debate is no longer over whether Chávez will finish his term, which has nearly five years to run. It is when and how he will go - and what comes next. [End]
Chavez left his strikebound and politically riven country despite the crippling work stoppage aimed at toppling him from the presidency of the world's fifth largest oil producer. Silva also has a compelling reason for staying on friendly terms with Chavez: The long border the two countries share. "Brazil worries very much about violence in Venezuela spilling over into Brazil," Haber said. "So you want to have peaceful relations with the Venezuelan, regardless of who is in charge."
During his breakfast with Silva, Chavez also brought up the idea of increasing cooperation among Latin American state-owned oil industries and set up a company called Petro-America. "It would become a sort of Latin American OPEC," Chavez said. "It would start with Venezuela's PDVSA and Brazil's Petrobras," and could come to include Ecopetrol from Colombia, PetroEcuador from Ecuador, and PetroTrinidad from Trinidad and Tobago." Last week, Cardoso's outgoing administration sent a tanker to Venezuela carrying 520,000 barrels of gasoline, but that barely dented shortages around the country. If Silva decides to help Chavez with Brazilian oil workers, it probably won't accomplish much either, said Albert Fishlow, who heads Columbia University's Brazilian studies program. "If he does it will be minimal and not enough to affect the situation," Fishlow said.***
For some, the strike has been a lesson in politics. Jack Barrios, who says he never really cared about Venezuelan politics before, and never watched the news or read the papers, was one of the hundreds of thousands who waited up to 10 hours in line to register to vote or update their voting information before last week's deadline. "I haven't really gone on the marches or banged pots at night. I feel voting is where I can make a difference," he says, admitting that he still does not watch a lot of TV. "It gets me really stressed out."
Mr. Barrios, an interior designer, has been out of work since the strike began - and it's starting to hurt. "I used to never think twice about going into a store and buying a pair of pants or shoes, never thought about inviting a friend for dinner. Now, forget it," he says. "I'm being very conservative with money because I don't know when work is going to start again." Not everyone, however, is on strike - even on the east side of town.
Just two blocks from the heart of the opposition's activities in Plaza Alta Mira, Super Hollywood Cleaners is one of the few busi- nesses that remain open. Owner Francesco Merola says he shut his doors the first day of the strike, but has been open ever since "because I have a lot of bills." He says the strike is especially hard on small businesses that still have to pay rent, electricity, and taxes. "I think it's a political problem, and the economy shouldn't suffer for a political problem," he says. But even though he is open, says Mr. Merola, leaning across the counter, business is bad. Everyone is out marching in T-shirts and jeans and not dressing up for work, thus not needing dry-cleaning services.***
Opposition legislator Alejandro Armas said the opposition had already proposed an international effort to mediate the dispute. The idea drew support from opposition labor leader Manuel Cova, secretary general of the 1 million-member Venezuelan Workers Confederation. "Whatever international initiative leading to an electoral solution is welcome," he said. Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria has mediated negotiations, but there was no progress reported in talks Thursday. In Washington, the State Department urged both sides to show "maximum flexibility." Chavez said the new group would add to the efforts of the OAS and pave the way for a dialogue between the government and opposition forces. He didn't elaborate on which nations would be asked to join but said the group would include European and Latin American countries as well as OPEC members. The idea came up during talks he held with diplomats in Caracas. "I picked up the telphone and began making phone calls", he said.
His opponents prepared for the rally Friday outside a Caracas army base in a bid to enlist the military in its effort to oust Chavez. The demonstration was intended to appeal to the military with the opposition organizing three marches to converge on Los Proceres, a plaza dedicated to South American freedom fighters that fronts the army's Fuerte Tiuna. "We call on the dignified representatives of our armed forces not to stage a coup. ... Act! Join us!" said Carlos Ortega, a general strike leader and head of Venezuela's largest labor confederation.***
Venezuela is reeling from the strike, which began Dec. 2. The state oil company has suffered $2 billion in losses, Energy and Mining Minister Rafael Ramírez said this week, and lost oil revenue has cost the government as much as $700 million. As the strike drags on, analysts said problems would mount in attempting to resume production.
''When wells sit idle, they have sediment problems. They require two to three months to get refurbished. Sometimes you have to re-drill parts of them,'' O'Grady said. ``It's not like turning on a water faucet.'' Perhaps more serious, he said, is that long-term foreign investment in Venezuela's oil fields may diminish even if Chávez resolves the strike.***
"We are ready to wait as long as necessary," said marcher Miguel Angel Urbano, 49. About 300 Chavez supporters rallied at a nearby subway station and cheered when a gasoline truck drove by. The strike has virtually shut down the oil industry and created severe gasoline shortages.***
Several thousand Chavez supporters waving national flags and chanting pro-government slogans marched in the southwest of the capital on Saturday to back the populist leader. As part of its campaign, the opposition has set its sights on a nonbinding consultative referendum on Chavez's rule scheduled by electoral authorities for Feb 2. The referendum will ask Venezuelans if they want the president to resign. "We will hold the referendum against all odds," opposition representative Timoteo Zambrano told Reuters on Saturday. The government has contested the Feb. 2 referendum in an appeal to the Supreme Court, rejecting it as unconstitutional and refusing to fund it.***
After Rangel's appearance at the wake, as many as 15 people approached the officers and fired automatic weapons, the police chief said. Some of the attackers may have come from the wake; at least one fled back into the funeral home, Vivas said. Officers returned fire using rubber bullets and tear gas. There were no immediate arrests, he added. Chavez tried to take over the city police force - which reports to an opposition mayor - last fall. The Supreme Court ordered Chavez to restore the force's autonomy.***
" - They are criminals and killers," he lambasts the inner circle of Chavez cohorts. And he is not afraid of naming names: "The job was given to me by Hugo Chavez. I coordinated with current Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, then Interior Minister Luis Alfonso Davila, and the current Vice President (then Defense Minister) Jose Vicente Rangel. When we determined the difficulty of sending three Hercules C-130 transport planes to Afghanistan, Diosdado Cabello decided to send cash instead.
" - In the last week of September, 2001, one million U.S. dollars was transferred to Dr Walter Marquez, Venezuela's representative for the region. Of that amount, one hundred thousand was used for food and clothing for the Taliban government, and the remaining nine hundred thousand dollars went to the Taliban in cash, with the understanding that it was to support the Al Qaeda terrorists in their relocation efforts."
Cuban involvement: "Chavez is Castro's puppet"
Asked why Chavez would support Al Qaeda, the high-level military defector offered two explanations. " - First of all, Chavez had for a long time wanted a direct line of communication with Al Qaeda. He had asked Libya for that, but with no success. Then came 9/11 and Chavez was impressed," remembers the pilot of the presidential airplane.
" - Second, Chavez looks up to Fidel Castro. The Cuban dictator has collaborated with terrorist groups for years. Chavez emulates Fidel Casto. It sounds bizarre, but Chavez is a bizarre man. He was already starting to go off the rails in 2001, and he wanted direct contacts to all the major terror groups in the world." According to Diaz Castillo, Chavez depends on Fidel Castro's advice in governing Venezuela. The pilot revealed that during the last four years, roughly 4,000 Venezuelans have been receiving military and intelligence training in Cuba. The Cuban communist dictator assists Venezuela's embattled crypto-communist in holding onto power, at whatever cost, because Cuba depends on Venezuela's oil billions to stay afloat. Earlier this year, Fidel Castro said that "for the Cuban revolution to survive, it is necessary for the Bolivarian revolution to survive," in reference to Chavez's Marxist experiment.***
On Friday, two Chavez supporters were killed at a rally attended by thousands of opposition protesters. On Saturday, gunmen, said to be aligned with Chavez, fired into a crowd at a local police station, wounding two officers. Officials said the men who fired had attended a wake for Oscar Gomez Aponte, 24, one of the victims from Friday's violence. Officers returned fire using rubber bullets and tear gas, Police Chief Henry Vivas said. There were no immediate arrests. The call for a tax boycott is among the opposition's plans to increase pressure on the government to resolve a 35-day national strike that was called to force Chávez to resign or call for early elections. Surprised at the duration of the strike, organizers are looking for new ways to increase the financial pressure on Chávez's government, already suffering losses of about $40 million a day.***
'BURNED OUR BOATS' "We have burned our boats. There is no turning back. We will carry on consolidating and deepening this Revolution," Chavez said. He brandished a small crucifix and a copy of the constitution that have become trademark props of his speeches. The outspoken president also vowed the authorities would seek out and punish the killers of two of his supporters who were shot Friday during chaotic clashes between pro- and anti-government demonstrators and troops and police.
Both sides blame each other for the deaths but Chavez singled out for accusation police officers serving one of his fiercest enemies, Caracas metropolitan mayor Alfredo Pena. Despite his tough words, he stopped short of declaring a state of emergency, as had been widely expected by opponents. For their part, opposition leaders said they would keep up the pressure against the president, who was elected in 1998 and survived a coup by rebel generals and admirals in April. "The people of Venezuela are out in the streets demanding Chavez's resignation. And they will not leave the streets," anti-Chavez union leader Alfredo Ramos said. Despite the violence surrounding Friday's big anti-Chavez march to armed forces headquarters in Caracas, opposition leaders planned fresh protests in the city, including a possible march to the heavily guarded presidential palace.
The deeply polarized positions, combined with mutual anger over the recent clashes and deaths, have increased fears of fresh violence. "We are on the brink of madness and we need to take a step backwards," Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton told reporters. Opposition spokesmen said they would disobey and defy any emergency measures introduced by the government. Chavez said last week he would call a state of emergency if necessary. ***
Strike leader Alfredo Gomez said Sunday that Chavez fired 251 more striking oil workers but government officials were not immediately available to confirm the claim. Chavez did not mention the dismissals during his television address. Opposition leaders blame Chavez's leftist policies for a deep recession and accuse him of trying to accumulate too much power. They want him to resign or hold a nonbinding referendum on his rule, which he says would be unconstitutional. Two police officers also were wounded Saturday when gunfire broke out during Gomez Aponte's wake. Chavez supporters fired on police after the government blamed the Caracas police for the Friday deaths, police chief Henry Vivas said. Officers returned fire using rubber bullets and tear gas. The state news agency, Venpres, reported Sunday that a woman who the government had earlier claimed died from tear gas asphyxiation in fact survived.
Meanwhile, leaders of the Democratic Coordinator opposition movement called on Venezuelans to donate between $1.80 and $3.50 to hold the referendum on Feb. 2 as planned. The opposition presented a petition with more than 1.5 million signatures to election authorities Nov. 6 to call for the referendum, but the National Elections Council says the Chavez-controlled Parliament hasn't authorized $22 million needed to pay for it. Chavez, a former paratrooper who was elected in 1998 and re-elected two years later, has challenged the legality of the referendum at the Supreme Court.***
Chávez's October takeover of the Metropolitan Police helped trigger the now 36-day strike. The Supreme Court later ruled the military takeover illegal, but the army began making gestures Sunday to defy the court order and regain control of the law enforcement agency. ''The officers are totally kidnapped,'' said Luis Delgado, chief of the police motorcycle squad.
Delgado said soldiers arrived Sunday afternoon and refused police officers' access to their motorcycles. Chávez has said he is considering martial law to try to break the strike and halt escalating political violence. ``Whatever moves we have to make, we'll make them. . . . Rest assured my right hand will not shake -- much less my left -- when I have to make these decisions.''***
PRIVATE FINANCE
Most corporations will be strongly affected by the aftermath of the strike; receivables will be difficult to collect, making payables hard to meet. Banking system is likely to collapse, as many credits will be either uncollectable or delayed. This will force the Banking system to create a physical reserve at the Central Bank to cover potential losses, draining liquidity from the system. It is expected that many companies will enter a payment moratorium process or declare bankruptcy.
PUBLIC FINANCE
The December strike represents 3 GDP points and the Government faces a strong financial crisis due to: · PDVSA not being able to produce & sell oil during December and the next 4 months. · VAT tax revenue reduction by 80% due to the lack of sales during December. This will be perceived in January, and should the situation extend to January then the following months will also result in a strong income reduction. · Income Tax proceeds for the period ending December 31st due in March will be reduced by the impact of corporations' losses in December, traditionally the strongest selling month. This may result in zero tax payable for many corporations. · Unemployment is likely to rise, increasing the negative impact on the Government's cashflow. · Fiscal measures will be required in order to restore the economic situation, thus reducing Government revenue. · Taxpayers are looking for ways to avoid or withhold payment of taxes due, including VAT. Many are calling for tax payment disobedience. The above factors create a very complicated situation for the Government, which does not leave many options open, among them: · Maxi devaluation to compensate internal expenditure · Application to WB and IMF for relief support (unlikely due to experience with Argentina's recent crisis) ·Issue of Venezuelan Debt papers at high interest cost · Deferral of payment of foreign and internal debt - It is noteworthy that the Government has decided to ignore the smuggling from Colombia - truckloads -, in particular via San Antonio, as a way to soften the shortage impact in the Andean region. In the long run, this will have a negative impact on the economy.
There is not a clear understanding by the Government Authorities of the predicament they face. They still apply short term strategies to maintain power (i.e. how to or what to do from now until January 6th. Then, to achieve this goal they sacrifice foreign currency reserves in order to pay and import fuel (Lula is paying back the economic support receive to meet presidential campaign expenses), food (rice from Dominican Republic who complies with the request despite the fact they import the grain, looking forward to a commitment in terms of oil supply) . Pressure is also applied to Multinationals in order to keep market supply i.e. Cargill has maintained supply and in cases, increased imports. Parmalat has opened plants in order to process and supply milk, Brink's has maintained their operation despite poor security and guarantee of fuel supply, not realizing that should Government succeed into maintaining power, the economy will be devastated and most likely free enterprise, like in Cuba will cease.***
The irreverent DJs said they started calling Miraflores Palace, the Venezuelan White House, on Friday. About 8 a.m. Monday, using a Cuban-accented woman posing as a Havana operator, they got through to a presidential aide who identified himself as Lt. Arcia.
The secretary said Castro was on the line and wanted to speak to the Venezuelan president. Castro's taped voice can be heard in the background, leading the unwitting officer to believe the dictator was really on the line.
The officer offered to have Chávez call Castro back, but the secretary explained that the Cuban was in a secret location and could not be phoned. The officer gave the radio station the number of Chávez's private line.
''Hello Fidel!'' booms Chávez.
''Did you receive my letter?'' asks Castro.
''Of course I received it,'' replies Chavez. ``I spoke with Germán.''
''I'm all set to collaborate with you,'' Castro says.
As the nonsequiturs start, El Vacilón fakes trouble on the line to disguise the rejoinders that don't make sense.
''Yes, brother, how's it going?'' Chávez asks.
''I'll do what you're asking me to,'' Castro replies.
''I don't understand,'' a bewildered Chávez says.
''But I'm going to be harmed, I confess to you,'' Castro says.
Silence from Chávez. Castro goes on: ``Everything's set for Tuesday.''
''Everything's set for Tuesday,'' Chávez repeats, obviously befuddled. ``I don't understand.''
Santos then breaks in and announces they were calling from Miami. Complete silence from Chávez. Santos launches into a tirade: ''Terrorist! Animal! Murderer!'' plus a few choice four-letter nouns. ``You're finishing off the Venezuelan people!''
Santos then hangs up.***
"Canadians should not travel to Venezuela. Canadians in Venezuela should leave the country," the Canadian foreign ministry said in a travel advisory that referred to the "highly volatile" security situation. "In light of the deteriorating political and security situation in Venezuela and accompanying severe shortages of goods and services, the Government of Canada has authorized the departure of all dependents of Canadian government personnel and nonessential Canadian staff members."
Chavez supporters and foes are pledging no letup in their conflict, which has plunged the world's fifth-largest oil exporter into political turmoil and economic chaos.[End]
Ramirez didn't say how many of the 7,000 workers at the headquarters will lose their jobs, but most are currently on strike. The government says it will fire strikers - some 35,000 are off the job - and already has dismissed high-ranking executives. Ramirez, who told reporters last week of the plan to split the company, said a new board "with a more strategic vision" will soon be appointed. The company will focus more on production of crude, gas and refining, he said. Chavez long has said he wanted to restructure the company, which he has called a "state within a state" run by privileged executives.
Chavez wants to increase government revenues from the company. "We need a PDVSA much more efficient ... and not as an oil enclave, but a company at the service of the nation," Ramirez said. Bureaucracy in Caracas increases operating costs by $1 billion a year, he added. ***
A hike in production would represent an abrupt reversal in OPEC policy. OPEC's 11 members decided less than a month ago to slash output by up to 1.7 million barrels a day in the hope of preventing a price decline when seasonal demand dips this spring. But oil industry analysts and traders pointed out that any additional oil exported by OPEC would not reach the United States soon. As a result, they said they expected the price of oil in the United States to remain above $30 a barrel. Those high prices, in turn, have pushed up retail prices of gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel.
Ministers of each member country except Algeria have agreed to meet Sunday at the group's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, the official said. Since OPEC's Dec. 12 decision to cut production, worrisome signs of a potential shortage have begun to appear. Oil shipments from Venezuela, normally OPEC's third-largest producer, have dwindled by 80 percent because of a month-old strike aimed at forcing the country's president, Hugo Chavez, from office. A U.S.-led attack on Iraq would halt exports from that country, which has the world's second-biggest crude reserves after Saudi Arabia.
OPEC officials have said the group cannot pump enough additional crude to make up for a simultaneous loss of exports from Venezuela and Iraq, which together have historically exported roughly 4 million barrels a day. OPEC's remaining members have spare production capacity of 3.3 million barrels a day, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most influential member, has proposed that the group raise output by 1.5 million barrels a day.
Crude prices slipped after news of OPEC's discussions. In New York, the price of light, sweet crude for February delivery tumbled $1.02 to $31.08 a barrel. February contracts of North Sea Brent crude fell 87 cents a barrel to $29.33 in London. February heating oil futures shed 3.91 cents to close at 84.88 cents a gallon, while February gasoline lost 4.02 cents to settle at 84.18 cents a gallon. Natural gas for February delivery gained 19.2 cents to settle at $5.127 per thousand cubic feet. [End]
Protesters cheered and blew whistles as they tore up blank tax forms at the doors of the tax agency. They called for individuals and businesses to stop paying income and value-added taxes. The march was the first opposition protest in the capital since clashes between Chavez foes and followers and security forces left two people dead and 78 injured last week.
Venezuela's largest labor confederation, the biggest business chamber and opposition political parties began the strike Dec. 2 to pressure Chavez into resigning or accepting an early vote on his rule. The president has refused to do either. The strike has crippled Venezuela's oil industry, which provides half of government income and 80 percent of export revenue. [End]
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