Posted on 03/18/2002 12:10:52 PM PST by henbane
January/February 2002
Vol. 58, No.1, pp. 70–71
Pakistan's Nuclear Forces, 2001
It is extremely difficult to estimate the number and types of nuclear weapons in Pakistan's arsenal. Outside experts estimate the country has between 24 and 48 nuclear weapons. The weapons are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium, requiring an estimated 15–20 kilograms per warhead. Seismic measurements of the tests conducted on May 28 and 30, 1998, suggest that the yields were on the order of 9–12 kilotons and 4–6 kilotons respectively, lower than Islamabad announced. Chinese tests in the 1960s used similar designs, and it is suspected that the Chinese assisted Pakistan's program in the 1970s and 1980s.
It is unclear how much weapons-grade uranium Pakistan has. For two decades, Pakistan pursued a gas centrifuge uranium-enrichment method to produce fissile material for its nuclear weapons, at what is now known as the Abdul Qadeer Khan Research Laboratories in Kahuta. By the early 1990s, some 3,000 centrifuges were thought to be operating. Although Pakistan declared a moratorium on the production of highly enriched uranium in 1991, experts think it resumed production well before the May 1998 nuclear tests. The most reliable estimate is that Pakistan has produced enough fissile material for 30–52 nuclear weapons.
Like other nations that have developed nuclear weapons, Pakistan does not seem content with a first-generation nuclear weapon and may be pursuing other designs and refinements. The 40- to 50-megawatt thermal Khushab reactor, at Joharabad in the Khushab district of Punjab, can produce weapons-grade plutonium. Loading the reactor's target materials with lithium 6 could produce tritium. Plutonium separation reportedly takes place at the "New Labs" reprocessing plant next to the Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (Pinstech) in Rawalpindi. Through these efforts Pakistan seems to be positioning itself to increase and enhance its nuclear forces significantly in coming years. It may intend to match India's plan to deploy a nuclear triad of air-, land-, and sea-based weapons.
Bombers. U.S.-manufactured F-16s are most likely to be used by the Pakistani Air Force to deliver nuclear weapons, although other aircraft, such as the Mirage V or the Chinese- produced A-5, also could be used. Twenty-eight F-16A (single-seat) and 12 F-16B (two-seat) trainers were delivered to the Pakistani Air Force between 1983 and 1987. At least eight are no longer in service. In December 1988, Islamabad ordered 11 additional F-16A/Bs as replacements, but they were not sent.
In 1985 Congress adopted the Pressler Amendment, which sought to inhibit Pakistan's pursuit of the bomb. Pakistan was forbidden from receiving most economic and military aid unless the president could certify that Pakistan did not possess a nuclear device. Although there was much evidence to the contrary, Presidents Reagan and Bush issued annual certifications, and some aid continued to flow, mainly to support Pakistan's front-line role in the Soviet-Afghan War. After the war ended, sanctions were finally imposed on October 6, 1990.
The 11 embargoed aircraft are stored in the Arizona desert near Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. In September 1989, plans had been announced for Pakistan to acquire 60 more F-16s. Seventeen were built by the end of 1994, but because of the embargo they joined the others at Davis-Monthan. In a Presidential Determination signed September 22, 2001, President George W. Bush waived the Pressler Amendment, but the aircraft have not been released.
The F-16s most likely to have been modified to carry nuclear weapons are deployed with Squadrons 9 and 11 at Sargodha Air Base, 160 kilometers northwest of Lahore. The F-16 has a range of more than 1,600 kilometers, more if drop tanks are used. It can carry as much as 5,450 kilograms externally on one under-fuselage centerline pylon and six under-wing stations. Given the F-16's payload limitations of weight and size, the bomb probably weighs around 1,000 kilograms and would most likely be attached to the centerline pylon. The assembled nuclear bombs and/or bomb components for these planes may be stored in an ammunition depot near Sargodha. Alternatively, the weapons could be stored at other operational or satellite bases further to the west, near the Afghanistan border,</font color="black"> where the F-16s would pick up their bombs. It has also been reported that M-11 missiles may be stored at the depot near Sargodha.
Missiles. According to bomb designer A. Q. Khan, the Ghauri missile is Pakistan's only nuclear-capable missile, although other missiles in the Pakistani armed forces could be configured to carry a nuclear warhead. The single-stage Ghauri-1 was first flight-tested on April 6, 1998, to a distance of 1,100 kilometers, probably with a payload of up to 700 kilograms.
The missile was reportedly launched near the city of Jhelum in northeastern Pakistan, 100 kilometers southeast of Islamabad, and hit its target near Quetta in the southwest. The liquid-fueled Ghauri is basically a North Korean No Dong missile, itself a Scud derivative. A two-stage Ghauri-2 was tested on April 14, 1999, three days after the Indian Agni-2 test flight. It was launched from a mobile launcher at Dina, near Jhelum, and landed in Jiwani, near the southwestern coast, after an eight-minute flight. A third version of the Ghauri, with an unconfirmed range of 2,500–3,000 kilometers, is under development and was test launched on August 15, 2000.
The choice of the name Ghauri is highly symbolic. Muslim Sultan Muhammad Ghauri defeated the Hindu ruler Prithvi Raj Chauhan in 1192. Prithvi is the name India has assigned to its short-range ballistic missiles.
Beginning in 1992, Pakistan received 30 or more complete M-11 missiles from China. Subsequently, it has had Chinese assistance in constructing maintenance and storage facilities. Pakistan may produce its own missile, the Tarmuk, based on the M-11.
Pakistan's reverse-engineered Chinese M-9 missile, the Shaheen-1 (Eagle), has a range of 700 kilometers and can carry a payload of 1,000 kilograms. Pakistan conducted the initial flight test of the Shaheen from the coastal town of Sonmiani on April 15, 1999. Islamabad claims its two-stage Shaheen-2 medium-range missile, unveiled at the Pakistan Day parade on March 23, 2000, has a range of 2,500 kilometers and can carry a 1,000-kilogram payload. The missile is carried on a 16-wheel mobile launcher. It is possible that both missiles have a nuclear capability.
Nuclear command and control. In November 2000, Pakistan placed its key nuclear institutions under the control of the National Command Authority, established in February 2000, in an apparent effort to create an effective nuclear command and control system.
The terrorist attacks of September 11 focused a great deal of attention on the security of Pakistan's arsenal. According to press reports, Pakistan's military began relocating nuclear weapon components within two days of the attacks. One potential danger to Pakistan's arsenal is extremist elements within the intelligence service, armed forces, nuclear weapons program, and in the general population. Gen. Pervez Musharraf took several actions in fall 2001 to mitigate these problems, including firing his intelligence chief and other officers, detaining several suspected retired nuclear weapons scientists, and redeploying the arsenal to at least six new secret locations.
Nuclear Notebook is prepared by Robert S. Norris and William M. Arkin of the Natural Resources Defense Council, Hans M. Kristensen of the Nautilus Institute, and Joshua Handler. Inquiries should be directed to NRDC, 1200 New York Avenue, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C., 20005; 202-289-6868.
©2001 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
No wonder President Bush is ignoring Musharaff's plea for delivery of those F-16's that are moth-balled in the Arizona desert near Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. The General wants those high-stake chips pushed out onto the table in this deadly poker game currently heating up in the region.
Correct.
1 Kt=1,000 Tons of TNT
1 Mt=1,000,000 Tons of TNT (1,000x1,000)
Evidently, the Pakistani military has been developing their nukes in anticipation of a war with India. They require relatively short-range delivery systems--especially smaller nuclear bombs that can be transported by F-16 size aircraft or those "symbolically named" short to mid-range missiles.
The fact that Pakistan has quite a potent little arsenal of these things sems to be generally overlooked or ignored in the general discussion of events and politics in this Islamic stronghold.
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