Feds Disagree on ANWR Oil Statistics

WASHINGTON, DC, March 13, 2002 (ENS) - Two reports released Tuesday offer conflicting views on how much oil could be obtained from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska.

The Department of Interior calculate the number of years that ANWR could supply oil for each state, based on mean U.S. Geological Survey estimates of oil potential in ANWR - 10.4 billion barrels - and petroleum consumption for each state using 1999 figures from the Energy Information Agency.

"ANWR is America's largest onshore prospect for oil and gas," said Interior Secretary Gale Norton. "ANWR's reserves, at the mean estimate, will provide 10.4 billion barrels of oil, nearly 40 times the amount imported from Iraq in 2001."

"Based on the mean calculations, ANWR would supply every drop of petroleum for the entire state of Arkansas for 144 years, Missouri for 71 years or South Dakota for 479 years," Norton added.

The 10.4 billion barrels estimate includes USGS figures to recoverable conventional oil in the 1002 Area of the ANWR, including federal lands, native owned private lands and state regulated waters.

"ANWR will require the toughest environmental standards ever imposed," continued Norton. "Exploration will be limited to no more than 2,000 acres out of ANWR's 19 million acres. Exploration will be limited to the winter months, between November and May, to protect breeding and wildlife migration patterns. Ice roads and ice airstrips, which melt away in the spring, will protect wildlife."

Norton's conclusions were called into question by a new report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency within the Department of Energy.

The report, "Effects of the Alaska Oil and Natural Gas Provisions of H.R. 4 and S. 1766 on U.S. Energy Markets," concludes that drilling in the refuge, including native lands within the refuge and state controlled waters off the coast of the refuge, would have only a negligible effect on oil imports when refuge oil production reached its expected peak in 2020.

"The increased production [from the refuge] is projected to reduce the net share of foreign oil used by U.S. consumers in 2020 from 62 to 60 percent," the report concludes.

The study notes that oil production in Alaska from outside of the Arctic Refuge is projected to increase by 22 percent by 2020.

The EIA found that the amount of so called "technically recoverable oil" from areas of the U.S. outside the Arctic Refuge - 136 billion barrels - is 17.7 times the amount of oil projected to be technically recoverable from within the refuge - 7.7 billion barrels.

At peak production in 2020, oil from the Arctic Refuge would amount to just 800,000 barrels a day, or "roughly seven-tenths of one percent of projected world oil production," the report says. If ANWR drilling is authorized this year, no oil would be recovered from the refuge until at least 2011.

Let's put some facts on the table.
1. The War on Terrorism will be a low-grade war, but a long one. Estimate 10 years, give or take. (The War on the Barb ary Pirates also took that long, as a running, low-grade conflict.)
2. When we go after Iraq, a lot of Arab oil spigots are going to slam shut. We will probably have assurances that the Russian oil spigot will be wide open, but that still means gas rationing in the US. Expect two years or more before some of the Arab spigots open up for the US. (Keep in mind one reason the Euroweenies are the way they are is that, except for Britain, they import more of their oil from the Arabs than we do.)
3. We won't REALLY know how much oil the half-persent of ANWAR that will be drilled, can produce, until we "whomp that steam drill on down," as John Henry said. Every day we waste now is another day down the road when every American adult will be stuck in gas lines, questioning whether Li'l Tommy Dashcle's parents were ever married.
Did I miss anything?

Congressman Billybob

"Approaching the Heliopause from 1776"

Did I miss anything?

Well.... yeah, as a matter of fact.

""Based on the mean calculations, ANWR would supply every drop of petroleum for the entire state of Arkansas for 144 years, Missouri for 71 years or South Dakota for 479 years," Norton added."

I support drilling in ANWR, but who really gives a hoot about this irrelevant rhetoric about supplying South Dakota for darn near half a millenia?

U.S. Petroleum & Crude Oil Overview
(thousand barrels per day)
	1960	1965	1970	1975	1980	1985	1990	1995	2000
U.S. Crude Oil Production	7,035	7,804	9,637	8,375	8,597	8,971	7,355	6,560	5,834
U.S. Petroleum Imports	1,815	2,468	3,419	6,056	6,909	5,067	8,018	8,835	11,093
Total	8,850	10,272	13,056	14,431	15,506	14,038	15,373	15,395	16,927
Imports as % of Total	20.5	24.0	26.2	42.0	44.6	36.1	52.2	57.4	65.5

Unfortunately, 10.3 billion barrels also represent little more than 1½ years consumption for our entire nation.

While drilling offshore or in ANWR may help, it is still just a small portion of our continually growing consumption. It would be of greater benefit to begin construction of electricly powered, high-speed mass-transportation systems in our nation's most densely populated regions and urban areas. This would truly assure that Alaska's oil reserves are available to meet our security needs.

The "glitch" is that the resultant glut of oil would also lower petroleum prices, depriving Alaska of oil revenue. Alaska Congressional Representative Don Young (who chairs the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure) is natually opposed to the deployment of such fuel efficient, mass transportation systems. The result will be higher oil prices, continued dependency on imported oil, and more military involvement to secure our sources of oil.

Don Young = OPEC

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