Red Dragon Rising: China's Space Program Driven by Military Ambitions

China is readying an unpiloted Shenzhou 3 spaceship for flight, a key step toward claiming a prestigious position in the heavens - becoming the third nation after Russia and the United States to attain an independent ability to launch humans into Earth orbit.

Sending people into space, and eventually to the Moon, is a piece of a much grander Chinese agenda.

China's all-purpose space schedule not only entails increasing use of satellites for weather watching, resource monitoring, and communications purposes.

A military space war-fighting strategy is also being put in place, some China-watchers claim. That line of attack calls for quick access to orbit, lofting anti-satellites, utilizing powerful ground-based lasers to blind spacecraft - all part of a technological tool kit for denying use of the "high ground" of space by an adversary.

At China's Jiuquan Space Launch Center in northwestern Gansu Province, preparations are in "full swing" for flight of a Shenzhou 3 craft that now tops a Long March 2-F booster. Some reports peg the launch occurring "in the near future," while other sources suggest the craft won't be airborne until June, at the earliest.

Whatever the case, getting the automated space vehicle into orbit hasn’t been easy.

Shenzhou 3 was apparently on tap for a takeoff late last year. Problems in "product quality" held up the flight, said Hu Shixiang, deputy director of the General Armament Department of the People's Liberation Army, as reported earlier this month by China New Service in Beijing.

What mission profile the Shenzhou 3 will fly is anybody's guess, except to Chinese space authorities that remain tight-lipped and distant from routine media contact.

The maiden and modest voyage of a Shenzhou took place in November 1999, circuiting the Earth 14 times, parachuting to Earth in Inner Mongolia.

Shenzhou 2 flew in January 2001, and was a far more aggressive shakeout of the craft. The multi-module space vehicle performed a nearly 7-day, 108-orbit flight, then ejected a return capsule carrying biological specimens that touched down in Inner Mongolia. How much of a "soft landing" the returning module made is still being questioned by outside observers. Meanwhile, Shenzhou 2 left its orbital module above Earth, with ground controllers putting the segment through an extensive set of maneuvers.

The flight of an unpiloted Shenzhou 3 -- and its delayed liftoff -- suggest to some Western analysts that extra-special care is being taken to prepare the craft. Speculation centers on whether this test shot, if fully successful, might be a prelude to a manned Shenzhou 4 mission.

Hu, who is also deputy commander in chief of China's human space flight program, however, has been quoted as saying that a fourth unpiloted Shenzhou is slated for this year. The first piloted Shenzhou, depending on how well the automated flight series goes, might take place in early 2003, he said.

Charles Vick, chief of the space policy division of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C., said that a Long March 2F booster at the ready to hurl the Shenzhou 3 into space was removed from its launch pad in late July or early August of last year. The rocket was sent back to the factory, then returned later in the year, he said.

Vick said that a second, neighboring launch site to handle Long March 2F rockets is under construction. Having dual launch pads points to China's possible interest in Earth orbit rendezvous and assembly of spacecraft hardware in the future. The two launch areas are designed to work in concert, making use of the same mini-vehicle assembly building where Shenzhou-carrying boosters are prepared, he said.

"It is felt that the People's Republic of China is only racing itself. The Shenzhou 3 will launch as soon as they resolve the technical problems they have encountered since last year. It is not unusual for technical issues to hold up a new research and development program," Vick told SPACE.com.

Marcia Smith, a policy analyst for the Congressional Research Service in Washington, D.C. sees China's space program as a paced, steady-state program. "They've got goals, and continue to work at them at the pace they can support financially and technically," she said.

They are not forthcoming about their launch schedules, so pinning them down to exact plans is difficult, Smith said. "They are vague and say they'll launch a human into space by 2005. So that's a big window. But then they've also said that by 2010 they are going to have people on the Moon. And that's a very aggressive schedule," she said.

China showing an independent capability to launch humans into space will likely have an impact, but more a matter of gaining prestige and pride, Smith said. "But whether it has a global impact the way Sputnik had in 1957, I'm not sure it's going to have that level of effect," she said.

How about a China-built orbiting complex that's tended by coming-and-going Chinese astronauts?

"Whether them having a space station would pose some kind of national security issue for the rest of the world is something that I can't speculate on," Smith said.

Richard Fisher, a senior Fellow with the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C., said that China's unmanned satellite program is "accelerating in an upward direction, rather quickly."

"They are preparing for a post-2005 conflict time frame. I think by 2005, or soon thereafter, an initial photo and radar satellite constellation will be in place. It will be sophisticated and large, and sufficient for Chinese needs to support a military campaign over Taiwan," he said.

Fisher said that China's piloted Shenzhou can be expected to contribute imaging or other reconnaissance data to the country's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in some form. "It will not be a purely science for science-sake undertaking," he said.

"Their manned space program is, first and foremost, a political exercise for the communist leadership," said "It is an exercise designed to prove the continuing worth of the communist government to the Chinese people," he said.

American reliance on space continues to grow, a fact not missed by China, Fisher said. In the PLA there is a very clear realization that space control, in the American sense, is something that they require as well, he said.

"China needs to be able to deny to the United States access and use of space, as they themselves exploit space to support their own forces," Fisher said.

To this end, Fisher said that researchers in China are busy at work on high-energy lasers to dazzle U.S. satellites. Another part of that nation's space arsenal are nanosatellites, tiny craft that can be used as anti-satellite weaponry. Furthermore, the Chinese have a small aircraft-shaped space shuttle, a vehicle easily modified to carry missiles sufficient for satellite interception, he said.

"Space is the next high ground. The Chinese understand that…and we forget that at our peril," said Dean Cheng, Research Analyst with Project Asia at The CNA Corporation in Washington, D.C.

Cheng said that China's space skills that premiered in the 1970s shouldn't be looked on as mirroring early Russian and American efforts. "There's a different force behind it," he said.

Clearly, putting up satellites has helped China's prestige in the eyes of the world. These satellites were and continue to benefit their national economy, Cheng said.

With their human spaceflight program, Cheng said, "the Chinese are pursuing a full-spectrum space program," he said, one that yields a national integrated Chinese space capability. "The manned space program for China is part of that. I'm not sure we know what that purpose is…and that's worrisome," he said.

"If you look at the overall Chinese space program, they are pursuing everything from micro and mini-satellites, all the way up through a manned space program. Space is a major Chinese technology area that they feel they must develop and exploit," Cheng said. "They understand the importance of space, politically, economically and militarily. We need to understand that this is not some third-world country firing off a one-shot deal," he stressed.

Cheng said that China would trump the second-tier space powers by having their own human space launch capability, leaving behind Japan, India, and even the European Space Agency.

"There would be a technological, political, sort of in-your-face aspect to it," Cheng said. "On the other hand, having a Shenzhou crew come back crispy-crittered would be a really bad move," Cheng added.

In the larger picture, Cheng said, China's space agenda is a force to be reckoned with, adding: "We must remember here in the United States that the new frontier may not fly only the red, white, and blue. It's the fact that now we're seeing dragons in orbit."

I believe this is the launcher family that's described in the linked article:

The CZ-5-5.0 heavy launcher would use the 5.0 m core stage together with a number of modular 2.25 m or 3.35 m diameter stages as strap-ons. Maximum payload with four 3.35 m diameter strap-ons is given as 23 tonnes to low earth orbit or 11 tonnes to geosynchronous transfer orbit. Lower payloads could be achieved by using 2 x 2.25 m plus 2 x 3.35 m strap-on stages; four x 2.25 m strap-on stages, or two of either stage. Growth to 40 tonnes payload would be possible if eight 3.35 m strap-ons could be used. The CZ-5 core stage is similar in dimensions and mass to the Ariane 5 core, but powered by four engines instead of the single engine used in Ariane. More about these launchers can be found here:

CZ-5-5.0

China Announces 2005 Space Plans --Say space arms race has begun--"While building its space programs, China is also concerned that space could become an expensive battleground in any future conflict. Beijing is especially unhappy with U.S. plans to build systems to shield the United States from missile attack. (snip) ``Another arms race in outer space has begun since 1998, and we should be watchful,'' Huang said."

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Charles Vick, chief of the space policy division of the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, D.C.,…………. "It is felt that the People's Republic of China is only racing itself. The Shenzhou 3 will launch as soon as they resolve the technical problems they have encountered since last year. It is not unusual for technical issues to hold up a new research and development program," Vick told SPACE.com.=== Federation of American Scientists===Why does the media think John Pike is a "national security expert"? FAS is LIBERAL groupthink.

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U.S Air Force and NASA Work Closer on Strategic Space Control--The shift toward greater emphasis on space for national security needs is being led by Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld. Prior to being appointed to his post by President Bush, Rumsfeld led a national commission on use of space for national security needs. ==========LINKS to Michael Cabbage's three part series on "China's New Frontier.

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(Nov. 14, 2002) China starts work on advanced space rockets-paper-Reuters

[Full Text] Reuters BEIJING - China is working on prototypes of space rockets that will bring it closer to its long cherished dream of putting a man into space, the China Daily newspaper said on Thursday.

A preliminary study on the rockets, aimed at stepping up China's space program and international satellite services, has ended and efforts have shifted to the research and manufacturing of prototypes, it said.

The new rockets, to be powered by liquid hydrogen, would bring the launch capacity of Chinese rockets closer in line with technology used elsewhere, it said.

"The new rockets can be used to send large-scale astronomical telescopes and explorers to the moon and Mars," the paper said.

"Developing the new generation of launch vehicles is key to maintaining the country's edge in the world aerospace field," president of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp (CASC) Zhang Qingwei was quoted as saying.

China has tested two unmanned space flights since 1999 in preparation for sending astronauts into space.

The newspaper quoted Zhuang Fenggan, chairman of the CASC Science and Technology Commission as saying China planned to launch its first unmanned space station "at an appropriate time this century."

Chinese leaders are eager for the prestige of joining the United States and former Soviet Union as the only countries to put a person into space.

Fast developing China -- which has launched satellites for U.S. and Brazilian operators -- is also vying for a bigger slice of the lucrative market for launching commercial satellites.

State-run Xinhua news agency said in January that China planned to launch about 10 satellites, rockets and spacecraft this year as part of its ambitious space programme.

China's space industry suffered a string of setbacks in 1995 and 1996, including the deaths of a family of six after a Long March 2E rocket carrying a telecommunications satellite exploded after blast-off from Xichang. [End]

China Plans Giant Step This Week***BEIJING, Oct. 12 - Amid all the clutter that has been rocketed into space is a clunky satellite expected to circle the Earth until 2070. The satellite, the Dong Fang Hong, was the first ever launched by China, in 1970, and is also an extraterrestrial boombox: It broadcasts into the cosmos the strains of the Maoist anthem, "The East is Red."

If China becomes the third nation to send an astronaut into space, as it plans to do on Wednesday, its top leaders will be sending a new message, to two audiences.

To the rest of the world, China is displaying its growing technological prowess, staking its claim to a future role in space and reasserting its case for being considered a power equal to the United States.

To its own people, the Chinese leadership hopes to stir pride and nationalism and to prove that the Communist Party, rather than being a dinosaur, is capable of the most technical of achievements. A full-throttle propaganda campaign is under way, with huge coverage in state-run newspapers and a 20-part series about the space program about to run on state-run television.

"It's primarily about showing the world; it's about prestige," said Brian Harvey, author of a 1998 book about the Chinese space program. "It's a vindication of their political system." ***

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