The reason why it is a bluff is because, as that song by Sting went, ‘the Russians love their children too.’ Use of tactical nukes in Ukraine may trigger UNFORESEEN actions by NATO that Russia may not necessarily want to happen.
For example, the entry of NATO proper to Ukraine. Which would result in direct NATO vs Russia war. Which would result in the conventional defeat of Russia. Which would mean that Russia would have to accept conventional defeat, or trigger is anti-NATO strategy in the event of conventional defeat - use of atomics. And thus, even a limited use of that brings ever greater threat of escalation, the end of which would be no winners.
The same calculus exists in the side of NATO, but the likes of France (which has lost a lot of ground in Francophone Africa due to the Russians) and the UK (which is trying to remain relevant) don’t care much and are pushing. Germany is obviously more cautious, as is - believe it or not - the US (as much as Biden and his ilk are rolling crazy dice, some of the idiosyncrasies like the cap on oil prices that is not capped, free flow of Russian fertilizers, drip drip of aid to Ukraine, indicate they are trying to punish Russia as much as they can without triggering global nuclear Gehenna. It may not work out that way.)
As for Russia - huge miscalculation on their side. What they thought would be a repeat of Crimea became a huge smear on their credibility. Sure, they would have defeated Ukraine if it did not get help, and even with help Russia enjoys certain demographic and other advantages over Ukraine that will likely result in a slow grinding ‘victory’ of sorts, but it has cost Russia big time. Huge miscalculation, and I doubt they are willing to make more/greater mathematical fails.
So, a bluff. Russia’s hope is that Germany makes noise, that Poland thinks twice, that British voters wonder what their government is doing, and that Hawks in DC take a short pause.
But they will not use tactical nukes!
The ONLY time they would do that is if Ukraine was in the verge of overwhelming the Russian army, was pushing back hard in the Donbas, and the fall of Crimea was inevitable.
THEN, Russia would definitely use nukes. It is in their clearly available nuclear use doctrine …
… but the US will never allow Ukraine to get that close to winning!
Unless people here really think the West (not the Baltic countries, the ‘proper’ West) actually want Ukraine to win!?!?
:)
Proper thinking!
It’s rare on these threads where insults and propaganda from both sides are used.
France is sending the Foreign Legion to the front lines in Ukraine. Their claim is that only the officers are French The rest are foreign. and many of the troops are Ukrainian and Russian. That should prove to be interesting.