Posted on 05/02/2024 10:48:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden.
Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.
According to the Daily Mail:
A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.
He says the technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'
Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its [sic] still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Thank you!
Sure.
She didn’t understand the federal office vs state office difference.
I get 8 and a half for Pres. Trump from this list.
He’s certainly not connected to reality.
Except 10 million new illegal voters.
FJB might break his own “record” of 81 million votes . . .
The list posted is not uniformly favorable to Biden.
Kennedy is effectively running against Biden in the primaries. He just had to do it as UAF because they wouldn’t let him in the primaries.
Plus, major foreign policy disasters (Afghanistan and soon Ukraine) past and present. I don’t know if the open border is a foreign policy failure. But it’s a huge failure.
Social unrest. Has Lichtman watched the news this week?
Scandal. I guess Hunter and Joe accepting bribes from foreign nations is not a scandal.
Economic prospects short and long term poll out as very crappy.
Joe’s charisma??
Lichtman’s evaluations of the factors must be pretty subjective.
Well, he has an ace in the hole. Last election Bidung was installed, no one of any real power fought back. The farce was allowed to stand. This time, Bidung will be installed. No one with any real power will fight back.
i count trump as the incumbent since he won 2020...
and most the country does too.
“I get 8 and a half for Pres. Trump from this list.”
Well over half favor Trump.
I would love to see this pompous, arrogant professor be proven wrong. If you take his “13 Keys” and place it on previous elections to 1984, he would have been wrong many times. Plus, he changed one of his “keys” to fit 2000 into the “right” box because initially, he was wrong in 2000.
The Big Unknown is exactly how many ‘votes’ Brandon will need. They had it covered in 2020. They may be a little more subtle this time, but cheating is a cornerstone of their operation.
I don’t have any confidence Trump can pull this off - It will totally depend on the number of States the Dems can get abortion on the ballot. There’s nothing the left love’s more than their sacrament of killing a baby.
Short-term economic prospects: BAD Long-term economic prospects: BAD Whether the incumbent brought about major changes in American policies: BAD Social unrest: YES Scandal: ONGOING Major military and foreign policy failures: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Israel Major military and foreign policy successes: NONE Incumbent’s charisma: LOL
“... predicted the popular vote winner ...”
Good observation. I personally think Trump will win because many people think we are being poorly led in many ways and a change is needed, and Trump, whether you like him personally or not, will be change.
Who..?
None of those indicators point to Crime Boss Joey.
Go back to the Ivory Tower dimwit.
not only do I think Trump will win, but I think he will win the popular vote also.
"We have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics”, Biden said in a clip posted to Instagram Oct. 24, 2020.
Yes, he actually blurted out that exact statement.
Looks like that organization is still in place. The polls mean absolutely nothing.
Fraudulent elections have consequences.
Lichtman made his 2016 Trump prediction a month and a half before the election, not 6 months out. He’s a press seeking weasel.
The only thing that really concerns me is the the Democrats have not made an aggressive move to remove Biden, even though he is pretty much the worst incumbent candidate in history. they just have to be planning something, because they will never allow Trump to win again.
Widburg predicted California for Trump in 2020.
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