Posted on 04/21/2024 6:23:43 AM PDT by where's_the_Outrage?
Homicides are falling across the U.S. And that shift could impact the role crime — often a top voter concern — plays as an issue in November’s election.
But it is a phenomenon for which experts don’t have a clear explanation.
Some say homicide peaks come and go in cycles, some say policing improved after the COVID-19 pandemic, and some attribute it to the evolving national conversation about how to handle crime.
A data analysis released last week shows that the number of homicides in cities like Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Chicago, are dropping.
While many major cities, especially those run by Democrats with liberal-leaning policies and populations, have received backlash from Republicans for being inundated with violent crime, the new data paints a picture of an improving situation.
Experts, though, aren’t agreed on exactly why the number of homicides has fallen so far, so fast.
Boston saw the sharpest decline from 2023 to 2024, with homicides dropping by 82 percent. In Philadelphia, homicides dropped by 37 percent; in Dallas, homicides dropped by 27 percent; and in Chicago, homicides dropped by 6 percent, according to estimates from city police department reports compiled by AH Datalytics.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Nearly 40% of law enforcement agencies around the country did not submit any data in 2021 to a newly revised FBI crime statistics collection program, leaving a massive gap in information sure to be exploited by politicians in midterm election campaigns already dominated by public fear over a rise in violent crime.
This article was published in partnership with Axios Local.The gap includes the nation’s two largest cities by population, New York City and Los Angeles, as well as most agencies in five of the six most populous states: California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida. (See if your local police reported.)Download the agency participation data used in this piece.
In 2021, the FBI retired its nearly century-old national crime data collection program, the Summary Reporting System used by the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. The agency switched to a new system, the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), which gathers more specific information on each incident.
Even though the FBI announced the transition years ago and the federal government spent hundreds of millions of dollars to help local police make the switch, about 7,000 of the nation’s 18,000 law enforcement agencies did not successfully send crime data to the voluntary program last year.
Oh here is the projected one for 2060
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2018/comm/century-of-change.html
Thanks. You saved me the time to check that out. All those drive-by shootings by gangs and dopers and neighborhoods run wild west have to tip the scales towards the unsolved column, forensic progress aside.
Very much like voter fraud, cooking the books on murder rates will be limited to a few places the Left controls, can be made opaque via statistics, is protected by "expert opinion," is generally untraceable, and is directly seen and experienced by very few people. Despite their unease, the vast majority can convince themselves otherwise
So yes, it is easy to do.
People living in those areas where the numbers are being cooked still know what is happening, but many are still hung up on Orange Man bad.
They let half the criminals back on the street after applying the new DEI rules.
“I agree that has a lot to do with it. I would also be willing to wager that after 20 years of the GWOT, there have been advances in trauma medicine that have kept some people alive who would have previously succumbed to their wounds. It would be interesting to see the number of homicides vs. The number of attempted homicides.”
What you note above re advances in trauma medicine might be a partial answer.
A few years ago my wife, who was a family practice RN for a major group for close to 3 decades, and we talked to a young former patient and his MD wife. They were interns in military medicine and had just finished a tour at one of the big ERs in Chicago.
They were headed to LA to do the same intern tour at the big county hospital. They shared some of their better reality
stories with my wife.
That was a decade ago and the ER skills are probably even better in most hospitals.
You don’t have to kill people to rob them when you can just walk into a store and take everyone you want.
I doubt very many people will believe this propaganda. Too many news stories about murders, carjacking, robberies, etc. for the public to perceive crime as declining.
If there really are decreases, it is most likely due to the aging of the population, joined by a temporary (and related) lull in gang murders (it will cycle back).
“Experts, though, aren’t agreed on exactly why the number of homicides has fallen so far, so fast. “
It’s because they removed all the penalties and resistance to theft.
They’re using lessons learned from the plandemic on how to fake the numbers.
I completely agree with your assessment.
In reality it only matters if people feel safe.not if they actually are safe. Ain’t going to Baltimore, DC or Philly anytime soon.
The usuals aren’t very good at aiming. And the cities they live in have excellent trauma care services. Cops are all now given clot packs, wound packs, and tourniquets. If I recall correctly inner city hospitals are wear combat medics are trained. There is no drop in violent crime, just better and faster treatment.
Here is a chart of the percentage of unsolved murders 1965 to 2020.
https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/28644.jpeg
Holy Moses ....
Just roll those dice, boys and girls.
Many murderers are arrested but not prosecuted in Democrat cities where crime of all sorts is de facto legal,so no murder is registered.
and how many got covid listed as cause of death with knife/gunshot wounds...
Even though the FBI announced the transition years ago and the federal government spent hundreds of millions of dollars to help local police make the switch, about 7,000 of the nation’s 18,000 law enforcement agencies did not successfully send crime data to the voluntary program last year.
https://www.themarshallproject.org/2022/06/14/what-did-fbi-data-say-about-crime-in-2021-it-s-too-unreliable-to-tell=">
if 2009 is new
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