I have no interest in challenging your logic. The broader truth is that the Emerson survey results are a crock. A 3% lead for Trump is statistically insignificant in a State with elections as corrupt and corruptible as Pennsylvania.
You’re correct that the election will be decided by a handful of votes in a few (25) swing districts. Elections in the rest of the country are window dressing. Now the government in Wisconsin has gerrymandered the Democrats into power in that state. Michigan, Illinois, Ohio.......? We’ve seen this show before.
True, except Trump never lead any polling in '16 which hints that a 3% lead is closer to 8-10%.
Then again, the favorable polling could be a head fake. I put nothing past them.