Posted on 08/24/2022 5:46:01 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
In the first congressional election of the year, Pat Ryan and Marc Molinaro are vying for the seat left open by Antonio Delgado.
Although the seats have been redrawn for the November rematch this is a poor reflection on the ability of McCarthy and his ability to win close seats.
The Democrat won last night 51-49%.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesunion.com ...
Quote: “That redrawing actually moves the district slightly to the LEFT though still very marginal”
I read the opposite in the Cook report. Maybe I am wrong. But this District was cited as one that benefited the GOP from the Court of Appeals redrawing the districts.
This seat was a Red seat held by John Faso that Delgado flipped. It was a stupid loss as Faso should have been coached to not turn Trump's assistance away, this disenfranchised the conservative voters who he lost and thus allowed Delgado to flip the seat. Second, not sure if the redistricting helps Molinaro, I thing it marginally makes it worse but still winnable. AND, every potential flip seat should be a McCarthy priority. Lastly, it's NY, Molinaro made the same mistake as Faso by being a GOP anti-Trump candidate, it's a bad move, Conservatives don't vote for assistant Democrats lately.
I had seen it earlier as even or maybe R+1 at most so he's apparently moved it. FiveThirtyEight has it at R+1, which pretty much translates into "even" when converted to Cook's notation (divide by 2).
In 2020 Cook had CD-19 as R+2 so if it's now R+1 or even that represents a slight leftward shift. In any case the change is subtle as far as the partisan makeup of the district and the district remains marginal and quite winnable with a half-decent GOP candidate (is that really what Never-Trump Molinaro is?).
This type of district -- marginal -- is the type where turnout is going to be especially critical because it's obvious that the election is going to be very close.
Did the nation vote for BiteMe?
Nuff said.
The District losses some of the Urban areas, and gains some real areas in redistricting.
Rural
Florida flipped multiple major school boards from liberal to conservative Tuesday evening, continuing a nationwide trend of parents taking back control of public schools.
I agree with your comments on this thread overall. The somewhat meaningless special election in NY last night notwithstanding, the Trump-led MAGA movement has been running up the score all this primary season. The epic blowout of Liz Cheney in WY last week is a harbinger of what we can expect in November.
Those stressed out about the NY-19 narrow loss last night remind of Patriots fans when I was living up in the Boston area. Tom Brady and the Patriots would run up a 44-0 lead and then when the opposing team kicked a field goal, some of those fans would throw their arms up in the air in disgust and stamp out of the room. I saw it happen!
The loss last night was an unforced error that could have been prevented with a decent turnout. But the real contest is in November, when it matters. The Democrat getting seated today will be up for re-election in just over 2 months. So with a decent MAGA turnout, this result should get overturned and become a net GOP gain.
Could be some Republicans moved out of the District and the state.
Right. 44-0 then foot stomping disappointment.
But that’s in the stands.
This is in the media
In ny 19 it should be Wha? The pro abortion won by only 2?
That’s what they’re say ing in tge smoky back rooms
Ny 19 will be a dem district and that’s even if Tge Republican wins
New York is being deserted by its populace. They’re coming to texas and Fla getting out of there. They don’t think correctly. They’ve run that state into the ground. Their politics are overshadowed by the democrat machine.
It went 55-43 to the Dem in 2020. This time it was 51-49.
What are you talking about?
I agree with your synopsis.
Well, they are more like moderate democrats.
New York’s most confusing race could be a political bellwether (Results are in) YES it could be a bellwether in that district but nowhere else. It is a rodent seat and stayed a rodent seat.
Albany Times = New York Times.
Any questions?
Ithaca is the city of evil.
I’ve been near but never ventured into the place. The smoke rising from Mt. Doom and the Nazgul flying over head told me I’d better stay out where the wine barrels were full.
The city of evil is not in the 19th district yet. The November election will be the redrawn district including Ithaca. Tuesday's election was to fill the vacant seat until the new members are sworn in in January.
Well, that’s sad. It’s a safe D district now.
That, and we lost Claudia Tenney as our rep.
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