Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defense on May 12, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev. These high-level reshuffles following the Russian presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO. The Russian Federation Council posted a list of Putin's proposed cabinet ministers on May 12, which notably confirms that Putin has “proposed” Belousov as the new Minister of Defense (Putin's proposals are orders).[1] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Kremlin newswire TASS that Shoigu, who has served as Russian defense minister since 2012 — will assume the position of Security Council Secretary and act as Putin's deputy on the Russian Military-Industrial Commission.[2] Peskov also announced that Putin dismissed Patrushev from his former position as Security Council Secretary “due to [his] transfer to another job,” which was not specified and that the Kremlin will announce his new role in the “near future.”[3] Peskov also noted that Army General Valery Gerasimov will remain Chief of the Russian General Staff, and a change in this position is not foreseen at this time.[4] Gerasimov is also currently the overall theater commander for Russian forces in Ukraine.
Belousov’s appointment to the position of Russian Defense Minister is a significant development in Putin's efforts to set full economic conditions for a protracted war. Belousov has no military experience and is an economist by trade — he served as Russian Minister of Economic Development from 2012–2013, following a career in economic analysis and forecasting between 1981 and 2006.[5] His lack of military experience is not anomalous — Shoigu also lacked experience in uniform before he took over the Defense Ministry.[6] Belousov then served as First Deputy Prime Minister from 2020 until his new 2024 appointment.[7] Belousov is also a known advocate for greater government involvement in the economy.[8] Peskov announced Belousov’s appointment to state newswire TASS on May 12 and explained that “it is very important to fit the economy of the security bloc [domestic security power vertical] into the country's economy,” suggesting that the Kremlin intends for Belousov to integrate and streamline the DIB and industries affiliated with Russia's security and defense forces with wider domestic economic policy.[9] Several Russian insider sources similarly responded to Belousov’s new position and claimed that it shows that Putin has serious concerns over corruption levels and misuse of funds within the Russian military, conflicts between the military and the Russian DIB, and the perceived inefficacy of the Russian MoD as a whole.[10] An unnamed Russian federal official told Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii that Belousov will work in his new role to “competently organize work and logistics processes, ensure the necessary production and supplies, orient the economy towards the ‘special military operation,’ and squeeze the technological maximum out of the defense industry.”[11] A prominent Kremlin-awarded milblogger noted that Belousov’s new role “means the beginning of a large-scale audit and restructuring of all financial models” in the Russian MoD.[12]
Belousov’s nearly decade-long tenure as an economic minister in the Russian federal government and his more recent involvement managing various domestic DIB innovation and drone projects, prepare him well to lead the struggling Russian MoD apparatus. The Russian MoD under Shoigu struggled with allegations of high-level corruption and bureaucratic inertia, facing constant scathing critiques from Russian military commentators.[13] Belousov has a stronger reputation for being an effective technocrat, and insider sources have claimed that he has a positive relationship with Putin.[14] Belousov met with Putin in November 2023 to discuss DIB projects and technological cooperation and has spoken to Putin about issues with Russia's domestic drone production.[15] Belousov also more recently highlighted a draft state order for 4.4 billion-rubles (roughly $48 million) for the production of drones until 2030, as well as plans to financially support drone producers and train drone developers and operators.[16] The focus on maximizing the technological innovation and output of the Russian DIB, particularly in the drone sphere, is likely to be extremely valuable to the Kremlin's war effort —the Kremlin has recently had to reckon with a gap between Russian drone production and contemporary battlefield realities.[17] Belousov personally announced in January 2023 that Russia had finalized the “Unmanned Aircraft Systems” project, which provides 696 billion rubles (about $7 billion) for the production of 32,000 drones per year until 2030.[18] Putin likely intends Belousov to use his experience in a civilian government position to bridge federal economic policies with the Russian MoD agenda, thereby more fully mobilizing the Russian DIB at a larger and longer-term scale and integrating it with domestic economic policy. This effort sets conditions for a fuller economic mobilization, suggesting that the Kremlin continues to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine.
Shoigu’s replacement of Patrushev as Security Council Secretary is in line with Putin's general pattern of quietly sidelining high-level security officials by granting them peripheral roles within the Russian security sphere rather than simply firing them. The Russian Security Council is an advisory body that also plays a role in executing security-related policies and developing Russian strategic culture, making Shoigu’s appointment as Security Council Secretary and de facto demotion from the prestigious post of Russian Defense Minister less humiliating.[19] Putin has removed Shoigu from the direct MoD chain of command but granted him continued influence in the security space. Shoigu has remained an important and loyal subordinate, and sometimes a scapegoat, and Putin likely benefits from maintaining Shoigu’s leadership and experience in some official capacity. Shoigu’s removal also follows two high-profile incidents — the removal of his reported ally Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on corruption charges and Putin's meeting with Shoigu’s political adversary and Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin to discuss DIB updates, which were likely leading indicators of the Kremlin's preparations to remove Shoigu from his long-held position.[20]
Putin has previously similarly sidelined his failed generals by appointing them to peripheral security and defense related positions outside of the direct chain of command, sometimes allowing them to redeem themselves and return to Putin's favor as ISW has assessed.[21] Putin's removal of Patrushev from the Security Council is noteworthy, however, since several Western and Russian reports that Patrushev is a close personal ally of Putin—the Wall Street Journal alleged in December 2023 that Patrushev was the individual responsible for the assassination of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023.[22] WSJ reported that Patrushev’s 2008 appointment as Security Council Secretary was largely a formality and that Patrushev serves as de facto head of all Russian security services, making him the second most powerful person in Russia.[23] WSJ also reported that Patrushev acts as a “hybrid intelligence official and diplomat” and routinely pays visits to world leaders on Putin's behalf. ISW cannot yet confirm what Patrushev’s new role will be but considering Patrushev’s reported personal importance to Putin's regime stability and Putin's longtime tendency to balance Russian siloviki (strongmen with political influence) such as Patrushev within the power vertical, Patrushev’s next position will be an important reflection of Putin's intent. The Kremlin may establish a new role or office for Patrushev to lead, such as establishing a higher-ranking position to manage the siloviki faction.
Aside from Patrushev’s dismissal, Putin largely reappointed the heads of core Russian security services, suggesting that he maintains a core cadre of loyal siloviki. Putin reappointed Vladimir Kolokoltsev as Minister of Internal Affairs, Sergei Naryshkin as Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Alexander Bortnikov as Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), and Viktor Zolotov as Director of Rosgvardia.[24] ISW previously assessed that Russian security services and affiliated siloviki, particularly Bortnikov, were key constituencies for Putin's election to his fifth term, and Putin has relied heavily on the work of the aforementioned security agencies to maintain regime stability, particularly following the failed Wagner Group rebellion.[25] Kolokolstev has been instrumental in coordinating the Kremlin's migrant policy (which has been especially relevant in the aftermath of the March 22 IS attack on Crocus City Hall); Naryshkin has been an important player in establishing information conditions and propagating justifications for the war; Putin has personally praised Bortnikov and the FSB for protecting Russian sovereignty; and Zolotov has spearheaded efforts to absorb former Wagner Group fighters into Rosgvardia.[26] These siloviki form the backbone of Putin's core cabinet, and their reappointment suggests that Putin will continue to rely on, and empower them, into his next term.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2024
The “minor” reshuffles in the Russian Government have almost been completed, but this is precisely what indicates a crisis in the country's governance system. Having irreconcilable positions on the formation of the facade of power, the main towers of the Kremlin, having come close to the point of transition of the crisis into the information space, decided to settle on small rearrangements that should “strengthen” the positions of the two main Kremlin groups, but even here it seems that one of them has strengthened a little more.
First Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov, who has also dumped the ballast of responsibility in the form of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, this is certainly a strengthening of the position of Sergei Chemezov, who openly shows, jointly with Manturov, demonstrative campaigns to the person appointed by the president and similar to Vladimir Putin, who controls everything. It is worth noting that now Denis Manturov will actually control almost all processes in the Government and will be the “chief” of the Government from the so-called “Politburo 2.0”.
The second and equivalent, as planned, but the “second” Deputy Prime Minister and “supervisor” from the “Politburo” will be the son of the former Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, Dmitry, who also dumps ballast in the form of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. True, by agreement, Dmitry Patrushev still has prospects of entering the transit line to the chair of the head of the Government by the end of the year and the presidency by the spring of next year. In the absence of the opportunity to agree on a new head of the Government, Sergei Chemezov played an interesting game, supporting the claims of the Chinese leadership that Mikhail Mishustin remain in his chair for some time. This is not a game in favor of China, but a way to keep both the sheep intact and the wolves well-fed, and the “sheep” in this case is the Chinese leadership in an embrace with Mishustin, who, just as he has not decided anything globally, will not decide. The recent meeting between Chemezov and Mishustin is a prelude to the appointment of Mishustin as the old-new prime minister. It is worth paying attention to the unusual media activity of Sergei Chemezov lately; usually he prefers to stay in the shadows, but now is a special case; a clear signal is needed to the second and third echelon elites about who is in the leading positions in the country.
In response to the strengthening of Chemezov, Nikolai Patrushev played almost all-in, exchanging his official post as Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation for increased influence on the security bloc and “guarantees” of his son's presidency. In his place, Patrushev put Shoigu, who is essentially a puppet idiot like Putin's double. Sergei Shoigu in the Security Council is an understandable step by Patrushev, the goal of which is to weaken the influence of the Security Council by moving the center of decision-making into the shadows and further closing the power bloc to itself. All reassignments of security forces were lobbied by Nikolai Patrushev.Zolotov and Kolokoltsev become even more devoted and obligated to “Sokratych.” The current status quo also suits the leadership of the FSB Bortnikov-Korolev. Belousov in the Ministry of Defense is an agreed candidacy between Chemezov and Patrushev; he must stop the total theft of the military budget by taking the main flows under the control of the Politburo. Patrushev’s all-in is a serious step and raising the stakes to the limit. Deception of Sokratych’s ambitions with a claim to the presidency of his son Dmitry, in the future for no more than 10 months, will lead to paralysis of power or total superiority of one of the towers and, in fact, to the seizure of power.
Yes, and... Nikolai Patrushev will certainly come up with a new position for himself, whatever he wants.
Putin's decision to remove Shoigu from the Russian MoD appears to have also opened the door for the departure of certain Shoigu affiliates from the MoD, likely one of the intended effects of Putin's recent cabinet reshuffles. Several Russian milbloggers and insider sources claimed on May 13 that two deputy defense ministers—Ruslan Tsalikov and Alexey Krivoruchko—submitted their resignations to Shoigu a week before Putin removed Shoigu as defense minister.[25] Russian milbloggers claimed that Tsalikov was “Shoigu’s right-hand man” for many years and oversaw troop support and the Russian MoD’s department on information policy and information warfare.[26] Krivoruchko is also reportedly close with Shoigu and oversaw military-technical support, weapons development, special equipment, and the implementation of state defense orders.[27] Russian sources claimed that both Tsalikov and Krivoruchko were embroiled in corruption scandals, and one Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger noted that frontline troops directly suffered as a result of their corrupt practices.[28] Russian insider sources claimed that Russian authorities questioned Tsalikov over possible corruption charges in late April, and suggested at the time that Tsalikov would be forced into retirement.[29] Russian authorities recently removed former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov, also a reported close Shoigu ally, from his position on corruption charges.[30] Tsalikov and Krivoruchko may have resigned in hope of receiving new positions outside of the MoD in order to avoid criminal prosecution on charges similar to Ivanov’s charges. Kremlin-awarded milblogger suggested that Tsalikov will also take a new role in the Russian Security Council following Shoigu.[31] Russian insider sources speculated that Belousov, as new defense minister, will only want to leave a maximum of two to three officials affiliated with Shoigu in the Russian MoD, suggesting that more Shoigu affiliates may still resign or be fired in the coming weeks.[32]
One Russian milblogger speculated that Shoigu and his affiliates were part of the alleged “pro-China” party in the Russian MoD and suggested that other MoD officials associated with Russia's China policy will be removed or resign alongside Shoigu, Ivanov, and others, although ISW cannot verify these speculations.[33] Putin likely used the constitutionally mandated ministerial resignations following his inauguration and subsequent nomination of new senior officials as a convenient moment to dismiss ineffective officials. Putin likely assessed that Shoigu’s constitutionally mandated resignation, almost a year after deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion to remove Shoigu and Russian Chief of the Army General Staff Valery Gerasimov from power, was the appropriate time to remove Shoigu from the Russian MoD without appearing to give in to Prigozhin’s demands.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13-2024