I have thought the same thing.
The media reports have been contradictory and sometimes dishonest.
There was no reason for Baldwin to aim that gun at that woman and pull the trigger.
The crew had walked off the set because they had serious problems with the production and with safety on the set.
Baldwin was a producer of the film.
Baldwin has an explosive temper and has threatened and/or violently attacked people for no reason in the past.
There is no reason to suppose that Baldwin was a good enough shot to hit the broad side of a barn. The testimony so far is that it was a "quick draw" shot without aiming. It was also at very close range.
If there was any hostile intention behind that unannounced quick draw, it has not yet been revealed in testimony. It was certainly a major safety violation.
Of course, rehearsals are supposed to be conducted with a cleared weapon. It is not supposed to be loaded, even with blanks, during a walk-through of the scene. The Armorer or Weapons Handlers are supposed to personally take care of this. Baldwin, as an Actor, had to have known that from previous experience in several action movies.
Baldwin, as Producer could do anything that he wanted to do on that set, including ignoring all safety protocols. And he did. That is where they might be able to hang him.