Why don’t we ever hear anything about the metrics to watch so we can declare the pandemic over?
Why are public health officials being so secretive about this?
Certainly, such metrics exist. Right?
Or will our overlords simply tell us when they think we’re ready?
“Why don’t we ever hear anything about the metrics to watch so we can declare the pandemic over?”
There have been some metrics bandied about at the State and Local level, like the number of new cases, and test positivity rates. Hospital utilization rates are no longer an issue. Neither is the availability of PPE, tests or ventilators. Recently, I have heard a Governor talk about 70% of those 65 or older being vaccinated, as a policy threshold for his re-opening.
Operation Warp Speed early on estimated that vaccinating 100 million priority people (vulnerable and essential) would control the disease (from the status of a Public Health emergency). We should get there about the end of April.
70% of the adult population fully vaccinated should crush new cases Nationwide (replication rates below one - herd immunity). That would mean about 125 million people more than today - more like the end of June.