[A44MAGNUT]

The UW IHME which has been wrong about every prediction made so far just keeps on keeping on. We could have more COVID-19 deaths than total total deaths with the Spanish Flu over 100 years ago. I'll predict this number is low because when you start counting almost every death such as the seasonal flu, colds, cancers, heart failures, other diseases, motorcycle accidents, swimming pool drownings, gang related deaths, etc, the number of deaths will be around 3 million. That's how many people die each year in the U.S. COVID-19 is about politics and people control. It's no longer about medicine. And blue state politicians emboldened by the elections are eager to assert their tyranny.

[glennaro]

I no longer believe anything — anything! — any “expert” says ... especially an “expert” with a name like “Ali Mokdad”. (a “racist comment” ... yeah, perhaps ... but totally necessary).

[cherry]

death rate has sunk as low as the leftist DBM.....cases might be expanding but even that is questionable with our testing....some experts say that under normal condition, most tests would never be listed as positive anyway...

[2aProtectsTheRest]

Deaths for causes other than COVID-19 are all either normal or slightly high so far this year.

The math puts a ceiling on the total number of possible deaths for COVID-19 in the US at about 1.3 million. R0 is 2.5, Herd Immunity Threshold is 1-1/R0 or 60%, US population is 330 million, 60% of that is 198 million, Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%, 0.65% of 198 million is ~1.3 million. Assuming we get no vaccine (which isn’t true, we’re getting one) and no change in treatment (which also isn’t true, we’re getting better), no more than 1.3 million would die.

[The Antiyuppie]

Not even wildly close, and then I would say that the US and the world have quite a few more people than they did 100 years ago.

[Little Ray]

Ha.
The Spanish Flu infected ~500 million people and killed 50 million people, including ~675,000 within the US. That looks like a 10% mortality rate.
Covid-19 has less than 1% mortality rate.

[DoodleBob]

I want someone to check the validity of Dr. Mokdad's alleged credentials of PhD Quantitative Epidemiology, Emory University, 1997 BS Biostatistics, American University of Beirut, 1984.

There were about 103MM people on the US in 1918, or about 1/3 the current population total.

Thus, adjusted for population, the Spanish Flu fatality total in 2020 terms is about 2 million.

Ya got a ways to go, Dr.

[Seruzawa]

There were 105 million people in the USA during the spanish flu.

[Bubba_Leroy]

The total population of the U.S. was approximately 103 million in 1918. 675,000 deaths equaled 0.66% of the entire population. It was great enough to cause the average life expectancy in the U.S. to drop by 12 years.

The population of the U.S. today is over 330 million. The equivalent number of deaths would be over 2.1 million.

[webheart]

If could

[PghBaldy]

Spanish Flu killed the young and healthy in horrifying numbers. This illness kills the elderly and sick. No comparison. I love old people, and most of my favorite people in my life have been elderly when I knew them. It is a different issue when men and women in the prime of their lives die.

[LastDayz]

The ex-spurts speakth, all hail the ex-spurts.

[Vermont Lt]

If they are gonna pull that off, they had better kick up theCFR...because right now we are lagging behind “falling in the shower.”

[the OlLine Rebel]

“In the U.S., about 28% of the population of 105 million became infected, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population)”

-Wiki

So, AT MINIMUM .48% died a century ago.

So far, we’re at .08%. If it gets to the LOW estimate of the Spanish Flu, that’s about .15%. The high est, it’s .26%.

Don’t try to scare me with mere cardinal numbers.

It’s % of the pop that counts.