Posted on 10/31/2020 6:16:24 AM PDT by bort
Republicans cut a net 15K votes yesterday from the Democrats' early vote lead, which has now fallen to 255K.
Dems---1,633,774 (+77K) (37.60% of all early votes)
Reps--1,378,537 (+92K) (31.72%)
Unas--1,310,505 (+89K) (30.16%)
Current Democrat lead is 255K (Dems held a 310K vote lead at the end of EV in 2016 and lost NC by 3.8 points). However, a higher % of EV has been cast this year because of China Virus fear, which means it would be nice for this 255K Democrat lead to drop more.
Black share of the EV electorate fell for the 6th straight day from 19.55% to 19.41%. (Black % of all votes in 2016 NC election was 21%).
Translation: Today is the last day to early vote in NC. I anticipate that Reps will cut another 15K or so from the Democrats current 255K lead (perhaps ending up at -240K?).
Where we stand: The best way to gauge the state of the POTUS race is to look at where the candidates are campaigning. Campaigns do internal polling every single day. They do not pay pollsters to lie to them. Campaigns want detailed and accurate information. A $10K poll of say, Wisconsin, dictates whether the campaign drops a million dollars in ads in that state. There are other factors. For example, Kamala Harris was campaigning in Texas yesterday. Does that mean that Texas is in play? No. She went there because there are 7 or 8 House seats (and other down-ballot races) that are close and she needed to clean up the Biden "oil spill." Trump is returning to NC for a visit. That suggests that his polls have the race close. NC is a must-win for Trump, so even a 3 or 4 point lead could prompt a visit (plus Tillis and the Governor's race).
Bottom line: Biden isn't campaigning in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan because he enjoys cold weather. He's there because the race is within a couple of points either way. And Trump isn't making 4 stops in Pennsylvania today because he thinks he is 8 points behind.
Folks, everybody is flying a little blind this year. China Virus resulted in sissy Democrats mailing in record numbers of ballots. By contrast, Trump's comments on mail have resulted in Reps holding their mail ballots until in-person voting started. Adding to this is the confusion pollsters are having with shy Trump voters who won't answer polls. So, as the Freeper Deicsion Desk has been saying, ignore the media, ignore the polls, but trust REAL DATA and follow the DEMOGRAPICS. It's the DEMOGRAPHICS, stupid!
In NC, the best guide we have is the black vote. It's currently at 19.41%. It will go lower, because Republicans always win Election Day (As only 1% of NC blacks are registered Republicans). Can the Democrats win NC with less than 20% of the black vote? No.
Other demographic info we are picking up:
1) In Florida, the counties with the highest registered Democrat voter turnout are TRUMP counties like Sumter (The Villages), Collier, and Lee. Arizona the same thing.
2) Black and Hispanic turnout is down everywhere. Keep in mind it was already down substantially in 2016.
3) The 18-25 vote is down, even from where it was in 2016.
Stop worrying and convince somebody to go out and vote for Trump!
ping
Reminder: Marist Polls were awful in 2016
Had Hillary ahead by 6 points and she lost by 3.6
How are Independents breaking, as a rule?
I’m making calls all day from a list I have from republicans hdqtrs to remind Trump people to vote..
The number one reason for not enough votes is that people forget to vote !
Yes. I I know it doesn’t seem like someone would forget this year but people are frazzled with all the quarantines and the hassles with school children or looking for work or their businesses so people do forget until it’s too late.
You would be surprised at the numbers we can get just by making a reminder call.
In Jacksonville Florida the early voting polls are open Saturday and Sunday this weekend from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
If you can today and tomorrow go to your local Republican headquarters or the group Victory.. . for Trump and get a list and make calls!!!!
Note that some D counties, Leon and Alachua doing very well for Ds, while Ds are overperforming in in Pasco, Collier, and Sumter and Lee, despite very good R turnout.
Good news indeed. To hear the giddy way the Media reports early voting, it’s almost like they assume all early voters are Dems. But I still think they are counting on people voting early AND in person.
A million thanks; so much appreciated. (”Lol—Harris is trying to clean up Biden’s oil spill in Tx.)
List:
**NC, PA, MI, WI
**Discernment & Effort
**House races/Down ballot items
What does mean?
Thank you for getting involved!
We won't know until after the votes are counted, and that's only assuming exit polls are correct. (questionable)
We can get clues from the turnout by demographic—where that information is available. The relevant information is not the total numbers, but the comparison to 2016.
Any analysis that fails to compare apples to apples, 2020 to 2016, is _useless_.
If the college educated independents in the cities and inner suburbs turn out in larger numbers than 2016, we are probably looking at Democratic votes.
If non college educated exurban and rural independents are turning out in larger numbers than 2016, we are probably looking at Republican votes.
It means that as impressive as most R gains are, we do have an opponent.
One key number that I think you are missing which would put things into perspective, what wat the Dem lead over RepRep in 2016 after all voting, not just EV. I don’t have all my references in front of me but I have it written down as 301k. That puts the present 255k in a different light.
My rough numbers show the Reps will turnout over 100k greater than 2016. The Dem number is essentially unchanged from 2016.
There is a large number of unaffiliated voters who can gum up the works.
To me, Trump’s 2020 margin of victory in NC looks roughly the same as 2016. I will make my final predictions on Monday.
The key in all this jumble is whom did the Unassigned voters
cast their ballot for.
Dems-—1,633,774 (+77K) (37.60% of all early votes)
Reps—1,378,537 (+92K) (31.72%)
Unas—1,310,505 (+89K) (30.16%)
That’s true.
The Rs are catching up with the Ds, but I think it’s the unaffiliated that will kick the Dems butt.
I hope.
To me, Trump’s 2020 margin of victory in NC looks roughly the same as 2016.
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I think it will higher than 2016 because the momentum is with Trump over the last week and the China Virus drop off of Democrats on Election Day. This year his hard to predict.
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