There are other Rinos facing election who could vote against the nominee, McSally, Gardner, Tillis. Regardless, if we end up 4-4, and we have 2000 Florida type decisions to be made, what happens?
The final vote on the Supreme Court in the US Senate will probably take place after the elections, so it won’t matter who is or is not facing reelection. It will be irrelevant. The nominee will be conformed one way or another.
Any challenges to the elections will likely get to the US Supreme Court after the new conservative justice is seated. There will be no 4-4 ties.
Ted Cruz made the same point.
McSally and Gardner will vote for the nominee as they need all the base support they can get. Murkowski is a no regardless and Collins May vote yes if forced before the election. Collins will vote No is she loses and vote is after election. Romney? Who the hell knows but probably a No. if Graham loses he will vote No after the election in true McCain style.