Posted on 07/27/2020 8:44:25 AM PDT by untenured
5 REASONS WHY THE CORONAVIRUS NIGHTMARE MAY SOON BE OVER
Like the ancient mariner, the virus refuses to leave us alone. Resurging in Blackburn, Spain, and America, it is still going to be around here when the winter comes. As we head indoors, it will be back for a dreaded second wave, disguised among a host of colds and flus. Yet I am now optimistic that the nightmare will end this year or at least by the spring. Here are five reasons.
First, vaccine trials were promising. Having proved safe and capable of raising both a T-cell response and an antibody response, Oxford University’s vaccine, developed in collaboration with Astrazeneca, is now more likely to succeed than to fail, so long as its side effects are manageable in the elderly. And behind it comes a stream of other vaccines, some of which will surely work.
The second reason for hope is that, as Oxford University’s epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta has argued, herd immunity may be achieved more easily than we first thought. Indeed, from the way that infections have continued to dwindle despite lessening social distancing it seems probable that herd immunity has already been achieved in London at least. Half the population could be immune already because of recent exposure to coronavirus colds, while children seem to resist catching Covid-19, let alone passing it on. As the chief medical officer Chris Whitty has conceded, the epidemic was already in retreat before lockdown began. That is because the virus depends heavily on a few superspreaders, and pre-lockdown measures we were taking in March are remarkably effective: no handshakes, frequent hand washing, no large gatherings and so on.
So the third reason for optimism is that as long as we continue with these measures then this virus will struggle to keep spreading in the community. The one place where the virus did spread with horrible ease was in care homes and hospitals. Why was this? T-cell senescence is an issue, so old people’s immune systems are just not as good at coping with this kind of infection, and there were dreadful policy mistakes made, like stopping testing people, clearing patients out of hospitals to care homes without tests, and assuming no asymptomatic transmission. Healthcare and care home staff were not properly protected and were allowed to go from site to site. Many were infected and became carriers.
The fourth cause for cheer is therefore that now we know about asymptomatic transmission, we have more protective equipment and we have a better, if still imperfect, capacity to test, track and isolate cases, it is likely that the hospital-acquired epidemic of the spring will not be repeated.
My fifth excuse for being hopeful is that we now know better how to treat people who get seriously ill. Ventilation is not necessarily the answer, blood clotting is a real threat, making patients lie face down is helpful, dexamethasone can save lives and some antiviral drugs are showing promise.
These are reasons that even if a lot of people catch the virus this winter, fewer will die. Colds and flu viruses usually peak in mid winter when we are indoors. Viruses survive longer in colder and drier conditions, and centrally heated air dries out our protective mucus membranes. Covid-19 will certainly be hoping to peak then. But Australia offers a glimmer of reassurance. It’s winter there now, and this is proving to be the country’s weakest flu season on record. From January to the end of June, 21,000 Australians were diagnosed with flu. Last year more than 132,000 people were diagnosed in the same period. Social distancing is presumably the main reason. If that is repeated here, then not only will Covid have fewer flus and colds to hide behind, but it too will struggle to mount a seasonal peak. And fewer people will die from flu.
If we can beat this virus, then we can beat most respiratory ones. The ridiculous way in which we tolerate cold-spreaders, mocking them for taking a day off and praising them for trudging into work while feeling miserable, has to stop. It should be socially unacceptable to go to a party with a cold, let alone kiss the host on the cheek when you get there. Our children’s permanently runny noses need not be inevitable.
Ten years from now, I predict that we will not only have defeated Covid-19, but made colds rarer too.
Our bigger challenge this winter will be to tackle the backlog of treating cancer and other medical problems delayed by Covid. And to unleash economic growth to help those who lost their jobs.
If Biden is elected, it will disappear.
If President Trump is re-elected, it will drag on forever.
What? Is there another one of those Asian viruses going on?
Let me know when it’s over.
No. The Leftist media refuses to leave us alone. Any sign that "normalcy" is returning before the election must be quashed.
Thanks! Unfortunately my tyrannical governor in CA is keeping schools closed until the CASE rate goes down, not the DEATH rate. So even when the death rate falls to zero, the schools will remain closed until my county has 14 consecutive days of declining cases (and under 80 cases to begin the countdown).
As soon a Biden wins it will be over..................literally...................
Mask wearing is just extending it hanging around. I think we are all going to get it eventually; I want it while I’m in a healthy enough stage to successfully fight it off, like a bad cold, not during cold and flu season.
Actually, I don’t want it at all
I'm not so sure of that. If he's re-elected it will mean that the whole fiasco didn't work as it was intended, and they'll take a different tack. My best guess is something on the order of assassination (heaven forbid).
It’s the first political virus. Traditional medicine won’t cure the virus. The virus is affected by the political climate. The cure will be implemented by democrat political victories. Just as the infection and death rates are manipulated to show higher results, if democrats win, the infection and death rates will be manipulated to show an amazing drop.
I predict it will be over either way. They will have nothing left to gain from continuing if Trump wins.
“now we know about asymptomatic transmission”
I’ve yet to see ANY evidence of asymptomatic transmission. On the flip side, I know of two spouses of asymptomatic people who didn’t catch the virus while living and sleeping with the asymptomatic people!
‘If President Trump is re-elected, it will drag on forever.’
I don’t think so; Trump’s re-election would mean that the covid political attack failed, and continuing the doom and gloom media portrayal would be useless going forward; the progs will come up with some other gambit, more geared to republicans as a whole, with the intention of total elimination as its driving force...
plus, I don’think progs like being deprived of fun and games any more than anyone else...
‘I’ve yet to see ANY evidence of asymptomatic transmission.’
amen; much hardship, mental and financial, has been backed and justified on this notion of asymptomatic spread...
At this point medically, Covid is a nothing burger, no different from seasonal Influenza; the elderly (or any other age group) can be diagnosed and treated for this with usually good outcomes...
However, the Covid Crisis will only cease after the ABCCBSNBCMSNBCCNN Leftist Liberal Media drops the story...
Right now, there is enough phony data of “Covid Cases” to allow this media club to continue slamming the head of DJT up until the election...
This Covid political violence will only start to recede on November 4th...
“I predict it will be over either way. They will have nothing left to gain from continuing if Trump wins.”
Disagree. They play the long game. They want to keep President Trump hamstrung so as to be sure they win in 2024. That’s why there will be impeachment part II if he wins.
‘Mask wearing is just extending it hanging around.’
I don’t think mask wearing is doing much of anything, regarding the actual virus; regarding how people react to each other in a (supposed) crisis situation, masks have been very informative...
If Trump wins, the Democrats will immediately start impeachment hearings on how Trump “mishandled” the Covid outbreak. This impeachment push will last longer than the pandemic itself.
What about the recovered asymptomatic elderly who still tested positive and were discharged from a hospital and sent to Nursing Homes/Assisted Living by Governor Cuomo in New York? Am I the only one who remembers by doing that Cuomo cause hundreds of deaths? Or is that a myth?
“It should be socially unacceptable to go to a party with a cold, let alone kiss the host on the cheek when you get there.”
So I guess a BeeJay is still okay then?
The reason New York dropped is here immunity.
Will happen in all states eventually .
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