[Jack Black]

What's interesting about Michigan is that they did have >5% of the vote for third party candidates. The biggest was Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. Jill Stein was number two, and I there was also one other that was significant. Trump only won by 10,000 votes- so the number and quality of 3rd Party Candidates could be an important factor this year.

Gary Johnson was a uniquely good Libertarian candidate (based on his results). That's partially because he ran twice in a row and didn't really take a break between campaigns. Se he ran continuously for 5 of 6 years, building momentum and name recognition. He was also a more plausible Presidential candidate than previous Libertarian candidates: a two term former Governor, his running mate for VP was also a former Governor.

I don't think the Libertarians are likely to have a candidate nearly as good as him again.

[Alberta's Child]

After the COVID-19 fiasco and the riots this year I’ll bet these fringe candidates get hardly any votes. I just don’t think voters are going to throw away a vote when they have very serious issues on their minds.

[cookcounty]

Most polls use “likely” as those who
a) say they will vote, and
b) say that they voted last time.