Here’s How Much Downstate New York Is Skewing the United States’ Coronavirus Numbers

PJ Media ^ | 18 Apr 2020 | Matt Margolis

[Rummyfan]

I live in New York State. But, I live in Western New York—not New York City, or downstate. If you ask anyone from downstate, they are New Yorkers, I am not. And quite honestly, I’m okay with that. I have no problem with not being lumped in with the downstaters.

Except I still am. New York is a hotspot when it comes to coronavirus cases and deaths, but that’s only because of downstate. Upstate New York’s coronavirus situation pales in comparison to downstate. New York City, in particular, was doomed due to the incompetence of local leaders, as well as other factors, such as population density and its subway system aiding in the spread of the virus.

Personally, I’ve thought for weeks we should be counting downstate New York separately from the rest of the country. So, I looked at the numbers to see what happens when you separate downstate New York from the rest of the country.

[Bonemaker]

I understand mio amico. It’s like cops walking in on a domestic. But you can say whatever you want about Chicago and I will agree with you...as long as it’s negative.

[metmom]

Upstate is not just Buffalo either.

In my area of Upstate NY there are more cows and guns than people.

There are dairy farms, apple orchards, and vineyards all over CNY in the Finger Lakes Region.

And the Adirondacks is even more desolate.

So, yes, there is a world of difference between Upstate and NY, and even Buffalo (where I grew up) and CNY where I live now. Buffalo is closer ro NYC in far too many ways that it is to the rest of the state.

[gcparent]

They should have closed the subways. People are crowded into remaining few cars and homeless living in the subways. Lots of sick MTA workers.

[pepsi_junkie]

I live in South Jersey. We have a few thousand cases here for the entire southern half of the state. Essentially nobody here has it. On the other hand The Northern by itself is second only to NYC in cases.

Yet we are under the same draconian rules as the north AND I read yesterday that the politicians are now saying that North Jersey has turned the corner but because we haven't had many cases South Jersey is still going to explode any day now. In other words, they people with all the cases are about to be set free and we who have no cases are going to remain prisoners because of that nutty logic.

[dp0622]

lol

It was a thing of great beauty once.

The World Trade Center majestically towering above all the other buildings.

Rockefeller Plaza and the great view of fireworks from the highest floors when I had to work on the 4th a few times.

The World Financial Center with the trading floors and the beautiful insanity of them.

The Museums. The Met. Broadway.

Rudy was king and we were proud.

Now look.

[metmom]

The NY city dwellers have always looked down at us hicks from upstate. I have little sympathy for them now.

Ditto.

[Exit148]

You gotta problem with that?

[DoodleBob]

Not quite.

If you want to remove NYC from the US national total and then compare with other countries, then you must adjust other countries accordingly. Otherwise, you're biasing the analysis - what you do to one set of data, you must do the same to the other. Otherwise, you're selectively "cleaning the chad."

For example, the Lombardy region of Italy accounted for about 60% of Italy's COVID-19 fatalities on March 25, but it has 10MM people vs. 60.3MM for all of Italy. If I adjust Italy's Day 24 totals to remove Lombardy, the adjusted Italian fatality total would be 26,344 and not 54,830. Lombardy's stand-alone adjusted fatality total would be 196,450, on-par with San Marino which is after all a tiny micro-state totally surrounded by - you guessed it - Italy. At the same time, on April 17 (Day 24 for the US), NYC's COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub was 8,632. If I removed NYC's fatality and population counts from the US daily total on April 17, my US-adjusted fatality count would be 28,887 while NYC's size-adjusted total would be 332,544.

Net-net-net, you'd have NYC at 332,544, Lombardy at 196,450, and non-NYC USA at 28,887 and non-Lombardy Italy at 26,344...rinse and repeat across all nations for their major cities/states then we can have a conversation. Until then, someone needs to go back to logic class.

Dennis Prager has possibly been reading my daily posts on size- and time-adjusted COVID-19 fatality counts. Methodology details available at the link. To make life simple, I'm posting the country and state data once.

Below are the data. Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 24 is April 17 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date, but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "24st hole."

America's relative size moved up with NY adding 3700 fatalities a few days ago without testing/confirming that they died of Coronavirus. We basically switched places with Switzerland. At the state level, the municipalities with higher adjusted fatalities than the US as a whole New York (Blue), New Jersey (Blue), Michigan (Red), Connecticut (Blue), Louisiana (Red) , Massachusetts (Blue), and District of Columbia (Blue), respectively. Meanwhile, Washington seems to have done a good job of jumping on the problem in early March. As for late-starting golfers, California and Florida are doing extremely well. In contrast, what's up with Indiana? in addition, Illinois, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania also look pretty sad.

With the NY-driven pop, America is close to Swedend's size-and time-adjusted fatality count. As I've said before, that may not mean their 'hands off' approach is better. The US is a nation of non-homogeneous individualists, and our approach works best for us. I don't look to Sweden for gun control wisdom, and I'm not looking to other countries for wisdom on how to handle a pandemic.

Country	Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths	Population	Day 20	Day 21	Day 22	Day 23	Day 24	Day 25
San Marino	3/3/20	33,574.0	196,316	196,316	206,132	206,132	206,132	206,132
Andorra	3/21/20	77,543	106,250	110,500	110,500	123,249	123,249	131,749
Belgium	3/19/20	11,524,454	58,193	64,056	72,148	86,332	95,683	102,947
Spain	3/13/20	47,100,396	65,680	72,404	78,351	83,592	88,448	93,346
France	3/18/20	67,076,000.0	43,855	50,817	53,490	60,078	64,928	68,052
West Bank and Gaza	3/25/20	11,700	56,334	56,334	56,334	56,334	56,334	-
Italy	3/5/20	60,243,406.0	37,308	41,045	44,939	49,967	54,830	58,966
United Kingdom	3/20/20	66,435,550.0	35,274	39,650	44,516	49,070	52,726	56,287
Netherlands	3/17/20	17,451,031.0	33,445	35,390	39,809	42,585	45,380	47,589
Sweden	3/23/20	10,333,456	28,288	28,671	29,309	32,945	38,366	42,512
United States	3/25/20	329,556,365.0	23,528	25,831	28,325	32,916	36,773	-
Ireland	3/25/20	4,921,500	24,441	27,187	29,731	32,544	35,490	-
Switzerland	3/16/20	8,586,550	25,561	27,442	29,361	31,510	34,351	36,385
Luxembourg	3/17/20	613,894	19,326	22,010	23,620	24,694	27,915	28,989
Macedonia	3/24/20	679,600.0	16,488	18,427	21,337	21,822	22,307	23,761
Portugal	3/23/20	10,276,617	15,072	16,163	17,157	18,183	19,209	20,171
Germany	3/25/20	83,149,300	12,659	13,056	15,077	16,060	17,249	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,822,763	13,980	14,715	15,451	16,130	16,923	17,489
Austria	3/23/20	8,902,600	12,475	12,956	13,623	14,215	14,548	15,177
Iran	3/9/20	83,331,064	9,954	10,441	10,903	11,461	12,007	12,497
Iceland	3/23/20	364,260	7,238	7,238	7,238	7,238	7,238	7,238
Cyprus	3/23/20	875,900	3,762	4,139	4,515	4,515	4,515	4,515

Municipality	Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities	Population (MM)	Day 20	Day 21	Day 22	Day 23	Day 24	Day 25
New York	3/20/20	19.8	104,348	117,650	130,585	143,621	156,240	167,410
New Jersey	3/23/20	9.0	80,310	86,454	89,876	103,193	116,106	129,424
Connecticut	3/23/20	3.6	45,337	50,844	55,249	61,582	79,661	89,114
Michigan	3/24/20	9.9	49,354	53,174	58,654	63,735	69,448	73,965
Massachusetts	3/25/20	6.8	40,937	46,418	53,742	60,387	60,387	-
Louisiana	3/20/20	4.7	46,004	49,532	53,271	56,870	59,269	62,373
District of Columbia	3/24/20	0.7	24,512	25,493	32,846	35,298	39,710	42,161
United States	3/25/20	329.6	23,529	25,832	28,325	32,916	36,773	-
Colorado	3/24/20	5.5	17,515	18,602	19,870	21,441	21,441	22,467
Georgia	3/23/20	10.2	13,937	14,131	15,454	16,680	18,357	19,712
Nevada	3/24/20	2.9	12,882	12,996	14,820	15,618	16,188	16,188
Vermont	3/18/20	0.6	12,107	12,107	12,107	12,107	12,634	13,160
Washington	3/8/20	7.2	8,135	8,779	9,514	10,157	10,387	11,444
Alabama	3/31/20	4.9	-	-	-	-	-	-
Alaska	4/3/20	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	-
Arizona	3/30/20	6.8	-	-	-	-	-	-
Arkansas	3/31/20	3.0	-	-	-	-	-	-
California	3/27/20	39.1	7,451	8,175	8,730	-	-	-
Delaware	3/27/20	0.9	16,026	18,116	21,252	-	-	-
Florida	3/29/20	20.3	11,787	-	-	-	-	-
Hawaii	4/5/20	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	-
Idaho	3/28/20	1.7	8,165	8,165	-	-	-	-
Illinois	3/27/20	12.9	24,550	27,702	29,009	-	-	-
Indiana	3/26/20	6.6	19,267	21,706	23,747	25,987	-	-
Iowa	4/1/20	3.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
Kansas	3/29/20	2.9	9,281	-	-	-	-	-
Kentucky	3/30/20	4.4	-	-	-	-	-	-
Maine	3/30/20	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
Maryland	3/31/20	6.0	-	-	-	-	-	-
Minnesota	3/31/20	5.5	-	-	-	-	-	-
Mississippi	3/27/20	3.0	13,436	14,207	15,419	-	-	-
Missouri	4/1/20	6.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
Montana	3/29/20	1.0	2,552	-	-	-	-	-
Nebraska	4/1/20	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	-
New Hampshire	4/1/20	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
New Mexico	4/1/20	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	-
North Carolina	4/4/20	10.0	-	-	-	-	-	-
North Dakota	3/29/20	0.8	3,918	-	-	-	-	-
Ohio	3/29/20	11.6	11,861	-	-	-	-	-
Oklahoma	3/27/20	3.9	10,364	11,038	11,459	-	-	-
Oregon	3/27/20	4.0	4,744	5,235	5,726	-	-	-
Pennsylvania	3/28/20	12.8	22,241	23,708	-	-	-	-
Puerto Rico	4/1/20	3.7	-	-	-	-	-	-
Rhode Island	3/29/20	1.1	36,815	-	-	-	-	-
South Carolina	3/27/20	4.9	7,202	7,337	7,808	-	-	-
South Dakota	4/5/20	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	-
Tennessee	3/31/20	6.6	-	-	-	-	-	-
Texas	4/2/20	27.5	-	-	-	-	-	-
Utah	4/5/20	3.0	-	-	-	-	-	-
Virginia	3/29/20	8.4	9,081	-	-	-	-	-
West Virginia	4/10/20	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	-
Wisconsin	3/29/20	5.8	11,763	-	-	-	-	-
Wyoming	4/13/20	0.6	-	-	-	-	-	-

[Hieronymus]

You must mention Ithaca, city of Evil.

Far above Cayuga’s waters, with its waves of blue

[Rummyfan]

Buona Notte! E Buona Domenica!

[American in Israel]

You city serfs are so brainwashed. Today I drove up a mountain pass blanketed in a trillion poppies like Golden snow. People were stopped lining the road to get pictures of the golden fields.

What show did you see? Oh, wait they are all locked down.

Tomorrow I think I might drop a tree in the front yard that has a silver top. Ole grandpa is dying of old age, he’s about 60, feet tall that is...

Grandpa might keep the house warm all winter next year. Ever felt a tree that tall hit the earth? They are called “hammers”.

He might be a bug tree. If he is I will just have a big bonfire tomorrow night and cook some marshmallows when the sun goes down. It wilk take a few nights to clean him up completely.

Have to have a bar b que with the neighbors one of those nights, they are up from the city. He’s a master bbq kinda guy.

There are 7 cases of COVID in the county now. Plenty of groceries in the stores, only a few cases of paper though. People drove an hour and a half from the city to buy up toilet paper.

House city folk sure are full of sxxx. Most people up here in the mountains have this redneck thing called a pantry, so I just dont get the fascination with toilet paper. I buy it every season or two.

Guess it’s a city scat thingie.

Honestly have not thought much about New York besides pity on you folks denied medicines to save your lives by your masters. Seems criminal to me, but I guess it’s like very late term abortions to you guys.

Living in the big city is like playing Russian Roulette to me...

[Bonemaker]

Saddest words...it used to be.

[eeriegeno]

The numbers from New York seem to be padded greatly. Now the CDC allows them to count probable(and maybe) along with factual CV deaths. But even with the padding, the US CV 19 deaths are a fraction of the 2018-2019 Type A/B seasonal flu deaths (<40000 CV19 vs. 80,000 flu). It seems like there are more questions with this than there are answers?

[FreeReign]

Nassau and Suffolk numbers were skewed from NYC people using our hospital systems. You can be assured no one from Nassau or Suffolk went to a NYC hospital.

Is that true? I was wondering why the numbers were so high.

[Lowell1775]

Ping

[gcparent]

There is no bridge or tunnel to travel from Queens to Nassau County.

[Nifster]

Your putting smiley faces around your comments does not mitigate your hatred for good hard working Americans

You are no conservative

[Nifster]

We are strangers here at FR. We’re supposed to be conservatives

[djf]

Absolutely true!
A guy on C2C said he analyzed the spread of the virus and found the three most “working” methods of transmission.
Number TWO was ...
Public transportation!
Trains, subways, elevators, etc. etc. etc.

[CathyWhite]

Who you calling a redneck and a hick, a$$wipe?