Posted on 04/06/2020 11:48:41 AM PDT by yoe
For better or for worse, the University of Washington’s IHME model has become, for many governmental units, the go-to set of projections relating to the Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. Governments credit the IHME’s forecasts of cases, deaths, hospitalizations, and strain on medical resources.
Until today, the IHME was forecasting 93,531 deaths from the virus (through early August). Now, it has (to 81,766). This number is in line with the model’s initial forecast (or at least the first such forecast of which I’m aware).
The model still predicts that the daily death rate from the virus will peak on April 16.
[snip] The IHME model assumes that all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” It also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.
(Emphasis added)
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
Agreed. Notice how Fauci and Birx say the models aren’t accurate and then demand Trump make decisions based on them
Another problem is the drug hydroxychloroquine....it has been used for years here and abroad....the usual suspects have abused it....however enough doctors are prescribing it (quietly) in spite of unproven warnings, its success at preventing and helping to cure this coronavirus is proven.
And if that’s proven, Trump will be the most popular leader in the wold
Yeah but we had to shut down the country in order to keep our casualties low. If we did nothing, according to a British study, 2.2 million Americans would die. You would probably see 10% of senior citizens living in retirement communities wiped out with maybe up to 50% dead at nursing homes.
There will probably be some small businesses that don't make it but those that lost their employment in that area should benefit from businesses that need more employees to catch up.
For instance those construction projects that are on hold will start up again and I expect additional positions being needed to catch up for the down time.
Aren’t we at a point to evaluate several models, and believe the one(s) which have predicted the most accurately?
Wall Street is not Main Street.
another styudy, eh?
I am the wrong person to ask....I do believe we have been misled by most of the media and never Trumpers as to be thoroughly confused....other than common sense, hand washing, and masks....stay well Freepers and kin...
No source code = magic 8 ball.
Americans are able to social distance much more than Italians. It’s part of why NYC was hit so hard, they’re not.
So the countries that didn’t lockdown will see massively higher death rates?
No they won’t. The lockdown was unnecessary.
AMEN to that! Love your optimism! All this bellyaching is more than tiresome. This President is doing all he can to save American lives from coronavirus and run the nation at the same time...and his optimism is met by more bellyaching. Cut him some slack for the Lord's sake; stand with him and help with the heavy lifting!
Let's hear it for President Trump!
Well, that is countering their admitted made up COVID deaths from guessing and not testing.
“We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.”
There is no “test shortage.” If NYC can’t find people who died in homes now, so be it, but people die from flu in their homes alone, too.
The American People will nor tolerate an August lockdown. Sorry Fauci. They will not. There will be civil unrest that will make the virus look minor.
Can you catch Coronavirus from a dead body?
Uh, we are not closing until August you fooking lunatics...
There are two problems with that.
One, the day he bases that off of is 04/03.
Two, the days he picks to compare are 04/04 - 04/05.
One - Friday
Two - Saturday and Sunday
One, a day when numbers explainedly grew about 24,000 from
the day before, or near 33%.
Two, weekend days when bureaucrats do what? Work? Who
records these numbers?
Toss out the day One figure. Look at the numbers preceding
and trailing that day. You’ll see similar numbers.
They did go down from the big day, and even beyond, but
they are still ball park figures with the days before the
big day.
As for the U. S., at 14:07 today it’s a whisker from
yesterday’s numbers already.
I think you may be able to see a glimmer of hope from
today that things have leveled out, but not much more.
And as for the U. S., we’re still in a growth phase.
Today will be interesting to watch in relation to the
subject matter of this topic.
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