Posted on 04/05/2020 10:54:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.
Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.
A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.
China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.
Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”
Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed.
Users of Chinese social media have expressed fears that carriers with no symptoms could be spreading the virus unknowingly, especially now that infections have subsided and authorities have eased curbs on travel for people in previous hotspots in the epidemic.
Zhong Nanshan, a senior medical adviser to the Chinese government, said that asymptomatic infections would not be able to cause another major outbreak of covid-19 if such people were kept in isolation. Officials have said this is usually for 14 days.
Nanshan said that once asymptomatic infected people were identified, they and their contacts would be isolated and kept under observation.
Citing classified data, the South China Morning Post said that China had already found more than 43 000 cases of asymptomatic infection through contact tracing.
The latest findings seem to contradict a World Health Organization report in February that was based on covid-19 in China. This suggested that “the proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.”1
But since that WHO report other researchers, including Sergio Romagnani, a professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, have said they have evidence that most people infected by the virus do not show symptoms. Romagnani led the research that showed that blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days by isolating people who were symptomatic and those who were asymptomatic.2
In an article on the website of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Jefferson and Carl Heneghan, director of the centre and editor of BMJ EBM, write, “There can be little doubt that covid-19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.
“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”3
We have the same problem as the EU -- our state borders are ineffective.
That said, once we get universal COVID-19 testing implemented (including antibody testing) we'll be much more equipped to take the risk of opening up large geographic areas.
Wow, that “Film Your Hospital” tweet is something. No lines outside or in admissions or in the ER in NYC, Chicago, LA or Honolulu! Thanks for posting that link.
Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). He wrote “If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.”
In other words, without advanced testing, this would have just shown up as a slightly worse than average flu season. Makes you wonder how many previous bad flu seasons were actually a new virus like this making its way through the population!!
Testing was inaccurate in most countries including S. Korea. Up to 10% false positive, but they didn't care. Our more accurate tests will still have 1% false positives at least. If we tested randomly it would need to be a small number of tests to avoid big problems.
However there is one caveat. If the virus is very widespread, much more than we realize, then testing with a high false positive rate will be ok.
You asked "are we just kidding ourselves at great cost?" I just watched the videos on #filmyourhospital (#9 above by RBW in PA). Citizen journalists are finding no lines on the streets or in waiting rooms or in admissions in hospitals in NYC, Chicago, LA and Honolulu.
In 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic...Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS). He wrote a couple weeks ago...
If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.So maybe previous years with "bad flu season" were actually viruses like this going through the populace?
What do YOU think?
I was asking whether the three locations’ outbreaks were caused by someone showing symptoms, or were they caused by someone not showing symptoms.
Reason I aske is, because researchers had traced back three strains of virus in the U.S. to three locations, Washington state, Los Angeles, and New York.
Wuli wrote:
“
“Were Washington State, L.A. and New York —each— from one symptomatic person?”
Are you, or someone, claiming they were?
“Not tested” (positive) before, as well as “not reported to be” (ill) are not synonyms for “asymptomatic”. It is my expectation that there is a lot of little denials that goes on with folks, just as there always is with flu - thought it was just a headache, just the sniffles, just a dry cough, just stuffed up sinus, ect., ect, ect.
Asymptomatic means THE BODY IS NOT EXPRESSING SYMPTOMS. That can be different than what many folks claim they are, or were experiencing. REFUSING to admit “minor” symptoms as possibly part of a larger infection is how people convince themselves they can still go to work - and wind up spreading the seasonal flu among their co-workers. They are not “asymptomatic”, just in denial.”
“I was asking whether the three locations’ outbreaks were caused by someone showing symptoms, or were they caused by someone not showing symptoms.”
I think it is problematic at this point whether the individuals “showed symptoms”, “did not show symptoms” OR that the individuals just did not “report” having symptoms.
You are assuming that physicians would DARE to prescribe it as prophylactic....
Many physicians give antibiotics and other meds as prophylaxis all the time. I think they would in this case based on the feedback coming in from the field.
My assumption was that the FDA’s go ahead to use the drug off label, also covers prophylactic applications. (also assuming sufficient supplies.)
Did it eve occur to you they might be doing it to protect you, too? Because they know they could have it, be infectious, and not know it (or is that just government propaganda)?
Should we have.a knee-jerk reaction against any and all government orders/guidelines/recommendations/suggestions/musings/thoughts-out-loud, or just the social distancing?
Or do you just have a 'thing' against "hispanic rent-a-cops"?
Just askin'
Paladin2 wrote:
“
“Already it’s slowing down”
NO, not everywhere. Some States are now scheduled to peak in the middle of May.”
do you have a link to the peaks, listed by state?
If the whole country is locked down [Unnecessarily in many places. How does shutting down Wyoming help NYC?] to save the people in NYC, will NYC still be locked down to save the people in Kentucky.....
I don’t know where you got any of that from my comment. I said:
The models say the US peak is around 15 April. Let high risk people stay at home. Non hot spot areas can go back to work.
That says if you’re not in NYC or some other hot spot, you should be allowed to go to work, with some exceptions.
If you object to my saying US peak, refer to page 1 and argue with these guys
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The peak in NYC is expected around then.
In many parts of the country, it will be much later than that.
Yeah I have a thing against a non-citizen scolding a Vietnam vet like some kind of glorified hall monitor.
do you have a link to the peaks, listed by state?
Go here and navigate around
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Too bad they didn't care about protecting the tens of thousands of Americans who died last year (and EVERY year) from the flu. Far more than will ever die from this virus.
KeyLargo wrote:
“
“What is known is that more than 647,000 people per year die from heart disease in this country, according to the CDC; and more than 599,000 die from cancer.
What is also obvious is that many if not most Americans are now living in fear of the newest disease to threaten in ways they never lived in fear of those old, established diseases.”
https://mustreadalaska.com/an-infection-of-fear/
“
Heart disease and cancer are NOT contagious;WuhanVirus is.
The peak in NYC is expected around then.In many parts of the country, it will be much later than that.....
So they say.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Paladin2 wrote:
“If the whole country is locked down [Unnecessarily in many places. How does shutting down Wyoming help NYC?] to save the people in NYC, will NYC still be locked down to save the people in Kentucky [Projected Peak May 16, 2020]?”
What website has the projected peaks, sorted by states?
“New evidence has emerged from China...”
BULLSHIT!
Not without intervention. Think of the CDC guidelines (including a mask and 6 feet distancing) as self-guided intervention.
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