“That said, I could seen them trying to flex their muscles in the South China Sea. Maybe some shots get exchanged. Just to show they are not afraid. For public consumption at home, of course.”
I think it will come by an indirect angle, with China taking military action vis-a-vis Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines or elsewhere leaving the U.S. - and Japan - to draw “red lines in sand” that China will decide to cross. It will happen when China thinks it is a good time and a convenient time, to China.
I think that is the point of the original article: Now, is a pretty good time for China.
Not sure if it's good enough for them to pull the trigger...I don't THINK so, but, it wouldn't shock me.