Posted on 03/29/2020 7:54:53 AM PDT by DannyTN
... The U.S. government’s foremost infection disease expert says the United States could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic. ... “I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases,” he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. “We’re going to have millions of cases.” But he added “I don’t want to be held to that” because the pandemic is “such a moving target.” ...
(Excerpt) Read more at fox29.com ...
Here’s what you do. Go find someone who just got laid off. That shouldn’t be hard to do. Offer to make their house note until they go back to work.
This pandemic has proven they aren’t completely wrong-and posts like yours prove that there are people that are heartless and cruel-that care more about money than fellow human beings. Your awful people. I’m ashamed to be in the same party with you.
You people really, really hate the human race don’t you?
““I don’t want to be held to that” because the pandemic is “such a moving target.” (100-200k deaths)
“the other days he wrote and article on the NE Journal of Medicine claiming the death rate will be no more than a super charged flu..”
I guess that moving target hit warp speed real quick. What is it Doc?
reading your posts it is apparent that the appellation of hysterical better behooves you.
As to the numbers - these are not guesswork. Let’s go over them once more to explain it even to the meanest of all intellects - even yours:
1. the numbers from all countries we’ve seen are that 70% of those exposed to the virus get infected. Out of that 70%, you have a case fatality rate of 0.2% for those between 20 to 40.
2. The USA has about 100 million folks in that zone - let’s say less than 70% get infected — that’s 50 million get infected. Out of that 0.2% die - that’s 100K
3. 10% of that 50 million will need hospitalization — that’s 5 million. I’ve put the numbers down.
If you think those numbers are wrong, prove it.
I’ve put the numbers DOWN compared to every other country.
I certainly hope not.
It's this notion that Fauci or the FDA should bow to public pressure rather than data that's scary. Once that happens FDA approval will mean nothing and we'll all just become that much more cynical.
This isn’t an Armageddon event - no one says so.
If we do NOTHING about it, it ends up like the Spanish flu - which hit 25% of the population and killed 2.5%
You want to go back to offices, restaurants, etc. and congregate. GO AHEAD. It will end up killing let’s say 1% of the population - that’s 3 million dead.
It’s not Armageddon, but it is a lot of folks dead
The reality is that a percentage like 60% to 80% of the country is going to get the disease. Its a rich person disease. Middle to upper middle class are more at risk because they interact more. More restaurants, more travel, obviously work and socializing and kids at schools and colleges.
Disregarding islands like Japan and Taiwan and South Korea (a virtual island). The reality is that no strategy has worked. Unless you call China’s strategy of throwing out foreigners, clamping down on the press and disallowing virus statistics, working. It may work in the PR game. But the reality is we are getting it. And the statistic not shown is the hospital stat. Can the hospitals handle the surge of patients. If so then you can stay the course or even open up. If not you need to lock down.
The strategy is not to avoid the virus unless you have reason to believe you will not survive or you think you will spread it to people who may not survive. If you get it, you go home and stay there.
But it will go through the environment. It will do it now or over the next twelve months, long before the vaccine is available. The vaccine is only a strategy for those who are at high risk. For everyone else its herd immunity. Everyone is helped by herd immunity even the elderly. If most people in a town get the disease. One month later there are fewer hosts to spread the disease and its likely to die out in that town. The goal is to spread the virus among the low risk population up to the ability for the health system to cope with the increased number of cases.
To keep the number of active infections at any one time to be within the capacity of the healthcare system to treat to keep those numbers you are responding to from growing exponentially. Hence "flattening the curve." A very simplistic illustration is having a hospital that serves 10,000 people. The hospital has a capacity of handling 500 sick people at any one time. Say that 5000 of those people are going to get sick enough to need hospitalization at least for a period of time - if they all get sick nearly at once, that would be a devastating scenario and many, many more people would die, but if the numbers are active infections are reduced to only being 500 sick or less at a time, they can treat them all successfully. That's the idea behind "flattening the curve."
Sure.
and the virus kills 0.2% of those infected between the ages of 20 to 40 --- 100K productive folks
What does that have to do with FEMA?
Yes, indeed. The two completely different models of doing nothing vs. social distancing do show very different results. This was falsely reported by some as being the modeler “changing his mind” and “reversing” his previous findings, which in fact never occurred.
the flu season is stretched out over a much longer period of time...and a significant portion of the population is immune to it due to being exposed to similar viruses regularly over their lives and due to a significant portion of the population getting the annual vaccine, none of which applies to COVID19.
It’s just bizarre that anyone thinks the economic damage would not have also occurred with everything being left “open” - it would have had to be shut down due to the rapid spread of the disease with the workforce becoming sick crippling the ability to operate. It would have accomplished nothing in saving the economy, but would certainly kill a lot more people and cause the healthcare sector to crash right along with it. The supply chain for our basic goods probably would also be severely crippled by this point. Stores probably could not even be open right now had these people had their way. I’ve been around here a long time, and a lot of these folks I know to be very intelligent folks...but for some reason in this case, no amount of facts or reality will sway them.
Additionally, his earlier estimates included very small and almost certainly biased data sets. As Dr. Birx has said - data on the ground does not support the previous forecasts. If Dr. Ferguson is guilty of anything it is letting the media run with his early forecasts (which he most certainly knew were based on worst case assumptions and very little data) as if they were gospel truth. As a researcher with integrity, he should have been in the media explaining the limitations of his early estimates. He was not.
Just for laffs I looked up the most recent numbers I could find for U.S. suicides...
48,000 in 2018.
We. Are. All. Gonna. Die.
The number of deaths has been doubling every 3 days for the past two weeks. If it continues growing exponentially at the same rate we would be over 100000 deaths in 17 days.
March 29: 2385
April 1: 4770
April 4: 9540
April 7: 19080
April 10: 38160
April 13: 76320
April 15: 121150
Hopefully all the shutdowns and social distancing measures will be effective in greatly extending the doubling time.
Sure. The .2% between 20-40 have high risk factors - AIDs, diabetes Type 1 & type 2, lung problems, heart problems, cancer, etc.
These people can be identified and THEY can quarantine. Quarantining the 99.8% of 20-40 year olds for a year (until a vaccine is available will destroy America.
Shut everything down whack-a-mole is going to happen until a Vaccine (A year?) 50% of the people in the US want Globalism, open boarders and call people racist if they don't want "refugees" resettled in their city.
Healthy people need to get the Wuhan Flu so they can get on with their lives.
The plan is "Everyone is going to get it, eventually." The only problem is overwhelming hospitals. If only healthy people get it, the Hospitals WILL NOT be overwhelmed.
I know, you're exactly right. Same here. I'm seeing long time freepers in complete denial. And their angry and scared and accusing every one else of being the ones that are scared.
And I get that their 401k's have been hurt, though they will come back. And some of them and/or their friends are temporarily unemployed, and are going to struggle through the lockdowns.
But if 15% of them get a 2 to 3 week hospital stay and a $450,000 hospital bill, they'll be cursing the day we didn't lock down harder.
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