Posted on 03/29/2020 7:54:53 AM PDT by DannyTN
... The U.S. government’s foremost infection disease expert says the United States could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic. ... “I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases,” he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. “We’re going to have millions of cases.” But he added “I don’t want to be held to that” because the pandemic is “such a moving target.” ...
(Excerpt) Read more at fox29.com ...
He’s obviously been there too long ...
‘Sorry dude, was going to happen lockdown or not.’
I converted my 401k to income annuities; not losing a dime in a bear market...I still think you’re on the wrong end of this issue...
He is an egg head who can only mouth the language of the egg head and that is the “model” or the “projection” and those are based on assumptions. That is because egg heads HATE to admit that they just don’t know or just can’t reach a conclusion yet.
But you know what, you ABSOLUTELY need egg heads on the team.
But what you don’t need is an egg head speaking irresponsibly. This isn’t a science fair and this isn’t a really cool experiment. He has to realize that when he speculates, even when said speculation is based on an educated guess, it is still just that.
Right now we need calm and deliberate action based on whatever the data is ACTUALLY telling us. Known unknowns are real.
But please, nobody hold me to any of this.
that’s because they all know tomorrow is the trump deadline of 15 days so they’re working overtime to gin up fear and panic and make him back off of telling us to go back to LIFE
If the number is only going to be 100,000-200,000 deaths with a total shutdown of the economy do you really think it’s going to be north of 2mil. if we open things back up? There are over 325 million people in this country.
Would Washington State “be slowing” without the social distancing?
many folks seem to think the 2000 dead number is fake - that those are made-up numbers. And the 30,000 dead worldwide is a scam
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387
Fauci et. al.
“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)”
Was he wrong then or is he wrong now?
he’s tracking the % change in growth - showing that the growth RATE is growing steadily.
That’s exponential
True.
I hope you are right.
Our response is killing us, though.
Yeah, even grocery stores were mostly empty yesterday in my area. Just wait until construction companies finish up their current jobs and have nothing for their employees to work on. We haven’t even gotten that aftershock yet.
By March 11, he had changed his tune.
Coronavirus Is 10 Times More Lethal Than Seasonal Flu, Fauci Says
Fauci was initially dismissive but adjusted pretty quickly. Flubros don't seem to be making the adjustment at all.
I think the menu item number 42 is what one should order.
Down 90% t0 95% from early hysterical forecasts.
On March 19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the testing of two drugs, chloroquine (hydroxychloroquine) and remdesivir, to treat people with COVID-19. The drugs have been given expanded access status, which is sometimes called “compassionate use”. It is important to note that these drugs are still considered experimental for the treatment of COVID-19.What the FDA says...
I imagine getting the "Institutional Review Board" to say "yes" could be a serious problem.Expanded Access | Information for Patients
Sometimes called “compassionate use”, expanded access is a potential pathway for a patient with a serious or life-threatening disease or condition to try an investigational medical product (drug, biologic, or medical device) for treatment outside of clinical trials when there are no comparable or satisfactory therapies available.Investigational medical products are investigational drugs, biologics or medical devices that are being tested to see whether they are safe and effective. This means that these products have not yet been approved or cleared by the FDA and the FDA has not found these products to be safe and effective for their specific use. Furthermore, the investigational medical product may, or may not, be effective in the treatment of the condition, and use of the product may cause serious side effects that were not expected.
When seeking expanded access to an investigational medical product, it is critical that you and your licensed physician (typically your doctor, but not all doctors or healthcare providers are licensed physicians) consider all possible risks.
Whenever possible, an investigational medical product should be used as part of a clinical trial. However, there are times when it is not possible for a patient to be a part of a clinical trial (e.g., that there are no ongoing trials, a patient may not have access to a clinical trial or may not be eligible for the clinical trials, distance to get to a trial prevents access). In those circumstances, expanded access may be the only way for a patient to receive an investigational medical product.
FDA is committed to increasing awareness about the expanded access process and the procedures for getting access to investigational medical products. It is important to note that, even if you meet the criteria under the law and FDA regulations, the licensed physician, the Institutional Review Board (IRB), and the company all need to agree that expanded access is appropriate for you in order for you to receive the investigational medical product. In addition, there may be costs not covered by third-party payers such as private insurance or Medicare.
Let the most susceptible confine themselves — you think the Chinese and the Germans didn’t think of that?
And the most susceptible 65+ and/or with health issues are nearly half of the American adult population (health issues: cancer, high blood pressure, diabetes, respiratory problems). You want them all to stay home of course. Ok - and the people who take care of them? They need to be isolated as well, right?
Among the rest - 0.2% of the 70% who get infected, die. So say that’s 70% of the 100 million non-ill, non-old, above 20 Americans. 70 million. 0.2% of those die - that’s 140,000 productive people. That’s separate from flu numbers (which hit the old and weak).
The numbers will be padded here, as well, because we’ve already declared the US gov’t is picking up the tab $$ on WuFlu cases. No insurance Co or hospital wants to be left holding the financial bag, so will put death WITH WuFlu in column of deaths FROM WuFlu
haven’t heard of one person with the virus. not one.
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